Best Bet: Race 4 No. 2 Mystic Wonder
Next Best: Race 3 No. 3 Extinguish
Value Bet: Race 8 No. 5 Silver Chaos
Value Bet: Race 9 No. 1 From The Block
Track Talk
- The track is currently rated a Soft 7 but showers forecast for Friday and Saturday could see a downgrade to a heavy track depending on how much hits the track.
- The rail position moves out from the previous meeting and will be +9m 1000m to winning post and +6m the remainder.
- Runners who are forwards of midfield in the run usually have the advantage at this track and expect runners to target the middle lanes in the straight in wet conditions. Six winners came from lanes 4-9 at the previous meeting here.
Stats That Matter
- Apprentice Brooke King has found form in recent weeks riding 12 winners from her previous 100 rides to return a POT of +46.8%.
- Roslyn Day’s stable has found super form in the early winter months. Her stable has produced 15 winners from her last 100 runners and a healthy POT of +28.1%.
- Will Clarken has been quiet in recent months with 10 wins from his last 100 runners and a negative POT of -32.5% but looking at nominations and trials he is one to watch with his stronger runners nearing returns.
Race 1
Victorian visitor Rubare looks to bring stronger recent 2YO form through this prep including a win at Caulfield two starts ago. She is coming in fresh and gets in well at the weights so should be in a strong position in run. Zouwin was impressive when winning on debut having led strongly all the way, sent out to the paddock and given more time to develop since, she could prove tough to catch if she has found a level of improvement and looks likely to lead again. Dirty Gold was well supported when winning at Murray Bridge last start, this is harder, but he should be suited in the expected conditions. Inhabit impressed in her debut campaign with a local win before contesting some stronger races on the Gold Coast, she comes into this fresh off two winning trials and wouldn’t surprise here but needs to work from a wide barrier.
Selections:
(1) Rubare
(5) Zouwin
(3) Dirty Gold
(7) Inhabit
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Word Game has been frustrating for punters in recent times going under as a short price favourite twice this prep. Looks likely to get her chance today though with a slight rise in trip likely suitable and she should likely appreciate an improving track. Power Dancer finished down the track in his previous start but suggest he didn’t appreciate the track conditions, again faced with a wet track but if he can be positive and the track remains in the soft range, he should be better suited and can bounce back. Polar Eyes showed improvement in his last start and in a race with a likely moderate speed, he should go forwards and be in a strong position. Glouf was hitting the line strongly last start with some of the fastest closing sectionals of the meeting, he will be suited rising in distance here but needs an even track as he will likely be back in the field through the run.
Selections:
(12) Word Game
(5) Power Dancer
(11) Polar Eyes
(2) Glouf
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
Extinguish was good when resuming at Morphettville and running a close 2nd in testing conditions. Fitter now 2nd up he should be better suited at the 1400m trip and with a lower barrier will likely settle closer in the run which will suit. Extra Hot was an impressive winner two starts ago but never looked likely in the race when getting to far back last time, she will be better suited up in distance but needs an even track. Annihilate has mixed his form in recent runs but his best is capable of winning in this grade, if he can settle closer from barrier 3 today it will give him a better chance. Falanghina has been in consistent form including an easy win last start, he jumps from a lower barrier today which could give him a softer run and prove him tough to hold out.
Selections:
(3) Extinguish
(7) Extra Hot
(4) Annihilate
(2) Falanghina
Suggested Bet: (3) Extinguish win
Race 4
Mystic Wonder was a good winner in wet conditions two starts ago and ran a close 3rd behind a handy runner last start. He is in good form and gets a similar set up here today at a track/distance set up he has success at (4:2-0-2). Looks hard to beat in these conditions. Miso has been knocking on the door for a win recently with three placings in his last three runs. He chased a handy on last week and will find this race slightly easier so may improve. Willybeafactor comes out of the same last start race as Mystic Wonder and did beat him home, jumping from barrier 1 should see him land handy and a wet track will suit, can threaten. Princeofnottingham was a good last start winner, he can settle handy in the run from barrier 4 but may be tested in wetter conditions today.
Selections:
(2) Mystic Wonder
(4) Miso
(5) Willybeafactor
(3) Princeofnottingham
Suggested Bet: (2) Mystic Wonder win
Race 5
Pierroplane was well supported last start and only caught late in the run having had to work early from a wide barrier, he maps for a much softer run today so do expect him to be harder to catch down in grade slightly. Torrita looks a chance to improve today now she is at peak fitness 3rd up and better suited out to this distance range. Jandami is another runner who can find improvement rising in distance having had little luck in his last start run, wet ground should suit and give him an advantage. Outside of the favourite there isn’t a great deal of early speed which could see Moana’s Fortune get a positive run and put himself into the race at big value.
Selections:
(4) Pierroplane
(11) Torrita
(3) Jandami
(1) Moana’s Fortune
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Stephen Theodore has got Boyd in flying form having won two in a row now and it is hard to knock his recent form given he maps for an ideal run up on speed out of barrier 1 and at peak fitness could prove tough to catch. Bardigrub was a good winner last start despite jumping from an awkward barrier, this race appears no harder and she maps for a softer run so could prove tough to catch again over a track/distance set up she has a strong record over. Tobikko ran a close 2nd behind Bardigrub last start so expect he can go close again, he does get back in the run which is the risk but if he uses barrier 3 to his advantage and settles closer, he might be hard to stop. Leading Impact makes his debut for a new stable; he has looked handy in recent trials and can race in a positive position which gives him a chance for a strong debut.
Selections:
(2) Boyd
(1) Bardigrub
(5) Tobikko
(8) Leading Impact
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Eight On The Dot has been performing consistently up in grade in recent runs and will appreciate a drop in grade for this today and looks ready for a rise to a suitable distance. The race looks void of a great deal of early speed which should give Everythingisautumn a chance to settle prominently, after a quick finish in her last start she looks ready for the rise in distance. Rikki Rikkardo is another runner looking to make a quick back up from Wednesday, the rise in distance should prove no issue if he gets a clear run from barrier 1 having been strong through the line when winning earlier in the week. Lafont ventures across from Victoria and looks a runner screaming out for a staying trip like this, his recent form hasn’t been outstanding but perhaps the rise in distance brings him on.
Selections:
(2) Eight On The Dot
(8) Everythingisautumn
(15) Rikki Rikkardo
(9) Lafont
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Silver Chaos is up in grade today, but recent form has been strong including blowing rivals away two starts ago at Balaklava. She didn’t get the ideal run last start so couldn’t repeat the performance, but her best form would prove hard to beat if she can find that again and overcomes the wide barrier. Skadoosh had little luck in her last start, she maps for a better run today and should be capable of improvement with the right run in this set up. Tahnee Territory has kicked off this prep in impressive fashion with two good wins and rises in grade for this today. She again sets up for a positive run so could prove tough to hold out again. Layin’ Up was a good winner at his home track last start. He rated highly there so if he can hold that form, he should go close again and will be suited in wet conditions.
Selections:
(5) Silver Chaos
(11) Skadoosh
(2) Tahnee Territory
(4) Layin’ Up
Suggested Bet: (5) Silver Chaos each-way
Race 9
From The Block is sharply down in grade for this today having performed well with a lightweight last time out. He is well up in weight today but can race positively and will appreciate wet ground so unlikely to be troubled in this set up with the bigger weight and should give them something to catch. Anotherhouse ran well when resuming to finish 2nd in a similar set up, he is fitter today and has a good record when 2nd up so could have a level of improvement to find. The Cosmic One was a good winner at Balaklava when resuming recently, this is a tougher race, but he maps for an ideal run out of barrier 2 and could be capable of handling the rise in level. Golden Guru is in form having not missed the top 3 in four runs this prep and is coming into the race fresh now. He has won at this distance previously and is slightly down in grade so may surprise but will need to work from a wide barrier.
Selections:
(1) From The Block
(3) Anotherhouse
(4) The Cosmic One
(11) Golden Guru
Suggested Bet: (1) From The Block win
