Best Bets
- Best Bet: R5 (7) Snallygaster
- Next Best: R6 (3) Kalmana
- Best Value: R8 (14) Shystar
- Best Roughie: R4 (1) Justa Star
Track
- Rain is forecast for Friday and race day which should see the track certainly in the Soft 6/7 range at least.
- This is the first meeting at this track for four weeks so the rail will be in the True position.
- The Parks track can favour leaders but in wet conditions it generally plays fairer and runners usually come wide off the rails in the straight.
Stats That Matter
- Luke O’Connor continues to produce strong results despite a small number of runners. He has produced 17 winners from his last 100 runners for a POT of +68.2%.
- Tala Hutchinson continues to be a profitable apprentice for punters to follow which can be important at this time of year. She has ridden 21 winners from her last 100 rides for a POT of +41.9%.
Race 1
(1) Romans Luck was solid in his resuming run when finishing third behind a handy winner in a stronger field. He comes into this fitter today and drops in weight thanks to a claim from an in-form apprentice so look for him to improve enough to be a strong winning chance in this.
(9) Our Sassy Lady has a light weight after an apprentice claim and looks likely to be one of the leaders of the race so expect to see her push forward and take catching late with the light weight.
(8) United Legend has confidence now after a soft win at Murray Bridge last start. He is at peak fitness and should handle the rise back up in grade.
(6) Joviale ran a close 2nd when rising in distance last start, he looks suited up in distance again off that run and dropping in grade should help his chances.
Selections:
(1) Romans Luck
(9) Our Sassy Lady
(8) United Legend
(4) Joviale
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(6) Torpedoes was put under pressure on a hot tempo and faded late in his last run but since then he has gone back and had a tick-over trial so expecting he will be fitter for this and can push forward again. With a more moderate speed expected he should be stronger late.
(10) Juxtapose ran second in the first two runs of her prep before taking on a stronger race that has since gone on to be a strong form reference. She maps softly from barrier two and hit the line well last start so rising to 1400m should prove no issue.
(8) Wine Snob looks ready to tackle the rise in trip third-up. He has placed in both runs this prep and looks close to a win.
(7) Vai Toa makes his debut and has shown talent in recent trials so can fire fresh. Early market moves at a big price would catch the attention.
Selections:
(6) Torpedoes
(10) Juxtapose
(8) Wine Snob
(7) Vai Toa
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
We are expecting a wet track for Saturday which looks likely to ideally suit (3) Brave Star, who thrives in wet conditions and with a favourable race map he can get the right run. He dropped in grade for last start and ran well despite conditions not being ideal so expect he can improve with this set-up.
(11) Grinzinger Halo was doing her best work late in the run last week when running the fastest last 600m of the race, so stepping up in distance should prove no issue, although she will likely be getting back again from the wide barrier.
(10) Swycho usually takes a few runs into a prep to find her best form and hits this third-up today so looks close to peak fitness. She has speed so can settle forward which may suit in this race, but how wet the track gets may be the biggest query.
(6) Phineas didn’t have much in his favour last start with the race shape not suiting him. He drops back down in grade which may help bring on improvement and he will likely be hitting the line strongly from back in the field.
Selections:
(3) Brave Star
(11) Grinzinger Halo
(10) Swycho
(6) Phineas
Suggested Bet: (3) Brave Star – Each-way
Race 4
This race maps to have little early speed in it which could potentially set (1) Justa Star to get the run of the race out in front from a low barrier. His form has been moderate so far this prep but he drops in grade, remains at a distance where he has a good record and is fit third-up. If he gets his own way out in front he may prove hard to catch.
(2) Sparkling Luck is in consistent form. He should find this easier than the previous race he contested at Pakenham and wet ground should suit.
(3) Wind Rush ran well in a stronger race last start and looks ready for a rise in distance after hitting the line strongly in his last run. He looks a chance to find his peak.
(8) Mrs Secombe disappointed last start but had an excuse with a slow recovery rate, her form to last start was consistent so feel she is every chance to bounce right back to better form today.
Selections:
(1) Justa Star
(2) Sparkling Luck
(3) Wind Rush
(8) Mrs Secombe
Suggested Bet: (1) Justa Star – Each-way
Race 5
(7) Snallygaster kicked off this prep with a win at Oakbank in Maiden grade before stepping up in level and running a close second to a well-fancied runner despite enduring a tough run out wide. He drops in grade for this and maps much better today so expecting he can prove hard to beat with this set-up.
(2) Murph comes out of the same race but is generally a runner who takes a few runs into his prep to find his best form. He is now third-up and at peak fitness so the rise in distance suits and he looks likely to start finding his better form.
(11) Creek is hard to catch and has been down on form this prep but drops down in grade now and gets a chance to settle closer in the run from barrier one so he can improve.
(4) Attain had little luck last start when enduring a wide run. He is drawn better today so expect he can get a softer run, and the wet track should prove no issue.
Selections:
(7) Snallygaster
(2) Murph
(11) Creek
(4) Attain
Suggested Bet: (7) Snallygaster – Win
Race 6
(3) Kalmana is well down in grade from any race he has contested so far this prep. He was competitive in a Listed race two starts back before a solid effort at Caulfield next start. He gets ideal soft-track conditions for this and maps well from barrier one. He looks well suited if he brings his best form based on those recent efforts.
(11) Royal Sway broke through for a maiden victory two starts ago before running midfield in a stronger race last start. He never really got going last time from the wide barrier so is likely to be more positive here today from the better barrier.
(6) Golden Guru steps up in level today but has been consistent this prep and is likely to appreciate the slight rise in distance.
(2) More Than Hope put in a big performance two starts back to nearly pinch a Listed level win but probably found the pressure too much when fading last start. He can bounce back to stronger form with a softer run up on speed where he is expected to settle again.
Selections:
(3) Kalmana
(11) Royal Sway
(6) Golden Guru
(2) More Than Hope
Suggested Bet: (3) Kalmana – Win
Race 7
This looks a super competitive race with a handful of runners resuming to target some higher level races through the winter months.
(5) Super Alana kicks off her prep today. She has multiple wins first-up, maps to get a soft run and handles wet tracks. Her recent trials suggest she is coming back in good order and can fire fresh.
(1) Sir Now is kicking off this prep well down in grade. He has a good record at this track and in these conditions so sets up well but will need to be tough from the wide barrier with a big weight.
(3) Enuff Seduction has fitness on his side and ran huge in the John Hawkes Stakes to finish 1.4 lengths behind the winner. That looks to be the strongest form line coming into this race.
(6) Deepfloat Diva is fitter second-up now and well suited returning to his home track where he has a super record, so is capable of improvement.
Selections:
(5) Super Alana
(1) Sir Now
(3) Enuff Seduction
(6) Deepfloat Diva
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(14) Shystar showed talent last prep with a pair of wins and has kicked off this prep in two much stronger races where she finished midfield. She returns to BenchMark grade and gets in with a light weight here so with this more suitable set-up she is likely to be a sharp improver and should be hitting the line strongly.
(9) Bouncing Beyond improved second-up to win a similar race to this at this track last time out. He has won third-up previously so can improve again and the slight rise in distance will suit.
(7) Dubai Focus kicks off his preparation here. He has won first-up previously and is undefeated at this track. He is well in at the weights with an apprentice claim and looks one of the likely leaders.
(4) Ginger Sinner should be suited in the wet conditions and is fit now third-up into his prep. He looks likely to get back in the run from barrier 12 but should be hitting the line strongly at this distance.
Selections:
(14) Shystar
(9) Bouncing Beyond
(7) Dubai Focus
(4) Ginger Sinner
Suggested Bet: (14) Shystar – Each-way
Race 9
(6) Invertational is on the quick back-up here having contested a stronger race last week. She was solid through the line late but got too far back in the run. She draws much better today so can potentially settle closer in the run and will handle a wet track.
(12) Extra Hot was in moderate form in recent runs but wasn’t suited in drier conditions. He is much better placed on wet ground and looks likely to get that here today after looking good winning a recent trial on a wet track at Murray Bridge.
(2) Regal Secret is down in grade which should suit and see her capable of improvement at this level. She rates highly in this field but may need luck from the wide barrier.
(10) Sicilian Princess broke through for an overdue win two starts ago having shown talent early in her career. She ran well in a Listed race last start and will be much better suited getting back to BenchMark grade again, but the wide barrier means she will need luck at some stage.
Selections:
(6) Invertational
(12) Extra Hot
(2) Regal Secret
(10) Sicilian Princess
Suggested Bet: No bet
