Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: R9 (2) Tobikko WIN
- Next Best: R6 (4) Cavalry Girl WIN
- Best Value: R5 (4) Orlova WIN
- Best Roughie: R7 (4) Willybeafactor EW
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Soft 7, but there is a watch on the weather, with showers forecast for Saturday. This could see a downgrade if significant rain hits the track, but at this stage expect a Soft 6–7 rating.
- The rail moves out again from the previous meeting and will be +9m from the 1200m to the winning post and +6m for the remainder.
- The course proper is generally a fair track, so expect runners to be able to win from a variety of positions. Runners may come towards the middle of the track in the straight if the surface is wet.
Stats That Matter
- Jacob Opperman returns from a long break but was in strong form prior to that absence, with 17 winners from his last 100 rides for a +13.1% POT.
- Kayla Crowther is riding winners consistently, with 11 victories from her last 100 rides, but they have come at low value for punters with a -27.8% POT.
- Shayne & Chelsea Cahill’s stable has found strong recent form, producing 16 winners from its last 100 runners for a +25.9% POT.
- Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray continue to rack up winners, with 22 from their previous 100 runners. That has come at a lower +9% POT, but they are still impressive numbers.
Race 1
(1) Justacclaim smashed his rivals here last start at Class 1 level and, while stepping up in grade today, he looks well set up again. If he can hold his form from that last run, he should be hard to get past.
(4) Bohemian Angel made a good impression when making her debut for a new stable last start. She hit the line strongly to run a close second and should be suited by the slight rise in distance.
(2) Speedtail is on the quick back-up after running a close second last week. He maps for a softer run early from barrier one and the slight drop in distance should see him stronger late.
(6) Brimarvi Rosemarie has been in consistent form. She hit the line well last start at Murray Bridge and will be suited rising in distance, while a fast tempo could set her up to run over the top late.
Selections
(1) Justacclaim
(4) Bohemian Angel
(2) Speedtail
(6) Brimarvi Rosemarie
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(1) Miracle Spin hit the line strongly last week, running the fastest final 600m and 400m of the race to win on the line. He has found strong recent form and looks suited by the rise in distance off the back of last week’s performance, so he could prove hard to hold out.
(4) Harsh returns to South Australia after a solid performance at Sandown last start. Her recent form has been strong and she can get back to that level rising in distance today.
(2) Wuddzz won well at this track and distance recently before producing a strong performance in a quality race last start. He will find this easier, but confidence would be higher if the track reached a genuine Heavy rating, which he excels on.
(3) Romans Luck won the Port Augusta Cup last start and looks likely to push forward. If the race is run at a moderate tempo, he should be the one they have to catch.
Selections
(1) Miracle Spin
(4) Harsh
(2) Wuddzz
(3) Romans Luck
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
This is a good quality sprint early in the program.
Leaning the way of (5) Cicala, who is lightly raced but gets an ideal setup at this track and distance. She also receives some key weight advantages over her rivals, so if she looks to race on speed again, she could prove tough to catch.
(1) Sir Now is in super form in similar grade races. He will likely race in a prominent position and should be tough late, but the weight disadvantage looks a risk if they run along quickly.
(2) Lingani rates highly and is set up to swoop if they overdo it in front. If the track reaches a genuine Heavy rating, she becomes a bet, as she is undefeated on Heavy-rated surfaces.
(6) Deepfloat Diva goes well with this track-and-distance setup and maps favourably from barrier two in the small field. She would not surprise at odds in a race of this level.
Selections
(5) Cicala
(1) Sir Now
(2) Lingani
(6) Deepfloat Diva
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
(12) Silver Chaos is in super form and was a last start winner here in testing conditions. She is stepping up in grade but maps for a softer run and carries less weight, so expect her to be hard to beat again.
(7) Anotherhouse kicked off the preparation with a solid performance but couldn’t back that up last start in tough conditions. He can improve today on better ground and should be at peak fitness third-up.
(5) Invertational drops in grade to contest the easiest race she has seen since her last win. She gets in well at the weights after the apprentice claim, so expect her to be strong late.
(4) Howl is capable of producing a fast finish and will be suited rising in distance from his other runs this preparation. Jumping from barrier two could see him settle closer today, which should suit.
Selections
(12) Silver Chaos
(7) Anotherhouse
(5) Invertational
(4) Howl
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(4) Orlova returns to South Australia after travelling to Caulfield last start to contest a stronger race. Her form prior to that run was very strong, with two wins in a row, and she should be capable of bouncing back to winning form now dropping in grade. She should get a soft run and has a good record at this track and distance.
(3) Centu Cavaddi is a last start winner and crosses the border in good form. He maps well from barrier three and should race on speed, so expect him to be in the race for a long way.
(6) Olatunde finished in the placings in a potentially stronger race last start, so he should be suited here and will likely appreciate the rise in distance to the mile.
(1) Oak Park Maddison is deep into her preparation and has been racing consistently. If she can get back to the level she was producing earlier in the campaign, she looks a winning chance.
Selections
(4) Orlova
(3) Centu Cavaddi
(6) Olatunde
(1) Oak Park Maddison
Suggested Bet: (4) Orlova WIN
Race 6
(4) Cavalry Girl crosses the border in strong form, having performed well in races that have produced good recent formlines. She is racing in career best form and her recent ratings have been strong, so if she holds that level, she should prove hard to beat. The race looks likely to be run at a fast tempo, so she should settle off the speed with cover and prove difficult to hold out late.
(9) Never Ordinary resumes after showing talent during her debut campaign, which included a two-year-old Listed win. She gets in with a light weight here and, if she has found any improvement from last preparation, this looks winnable.
(11) Jacaranda is another two-year-old resuming with a light weight and is capable of firing fresh. She won first-up last preparation by a huge margin before contesting two strong races and may find this easier.
(5) Bardigrub has the fitness advantage and has won her past two starts. It is hard to knock her recent form and she should race prominently on speed.
Selections
(4) Cavalry Girl
(9) Never Ordinary
(11) Jacaranda
(5) Bardigrub
Suggested Bet: (4) Cavalry Girl WIN
Race 7
(4) Willybeafactor was an impressive winner last start in similar grade. He did his best work late in that race, so the slight rise in distance should suit. If conditions deteriorate, he will be even better suited, so he warrants an each-way play given his setup and recent form.
(1) A Samurai Mind returns to South Australia after recently contesting stronger races in Victoria. He drops back in grade today and returns to a track and distance where he has a good record, so expect improvement on his recent performances.
(9) Jandami hit the line strongly last start to run away with a win. He now rises in grade but should be suited by the slight increase in distance and drops significantly in weight. Expect him to again be strong through the line and hard to hold out with luck.
(10) Falanghina is a last start winner and looks suited rising in distance off the back of that performance. She maps well from a low barrier and can settle closer in the run, which will help with the rise in trip.
Selections
(4) Willybeafactor
(1) A Samurai Mind
(9) Jandami
(10) Falanghina
Suggested Bet: (4) Willybeafactor EW
Race 8
This looks a competitive race with a tough map for some of the key chances.
(13) Tottori has mixed his form in recent starts but gets a soft map today from barrier five. That should help him land in a better position in running and he can improve on his recent finishes with today’s setup.
(3) Maxildo has been in consistent form recently and is knocking on the door for a win. He steps up to the mile, which should suit, and profiles well in this grade, but he will need to be sharp early to find a position from the wide barrier.
(2) Annihilate is a similar runner who will appreciate rising to 1600m. He will likely get back from the wide barrier but has been hitting the line strongly and should be right in this with even luck.
(1) Head Of The Herd has been consistent in similar grade races and owns a strong record over 1600m. Expect him to be around the mark again in another suitable setup.
Selections
(13) Tottori
(3) Maxildo
(2) Annihilate
(1) Head Of The Herd
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
(2) Tobikko has been tough for punters to follow recently, with a pair of close finishes behind the in-form Bardigrub. While he has been a difficult horse to catch, this looks his best recent setup. He drops slightly in grade and the rise to 1100m should suit him well.
(8) Extremely Rowdy makes her debut for a new stable. She has not previously won first-up but resumes in a lower grade today and comes into this after two decent trials, so she can fire fresh on an even track.
(3) Eeny Meeny was a winner on debut in June and steps up in grade today. He has been kept in good order with a recent Caulfield trial win, has good speed and should race in an ideal position.
(10) Stylish Flipper has been consistent in recent runs and can again produce a strong performance rising slightly in distance and returning to an even track.
Selections
(2) Tobikko
(8) Extremely Rowdy
(3) Eeny Meeny
(10) Stylish Flipper
Suggested Bet: (2) Tobikko WIN
