Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 3 (10) From The Block
- Next Best: Race 1 (6) Harsh
- Best Value: Race 5 (12) Queen Christine
- Best Roughie: Race 9 (2) Free Beer
Track
- Despite clear conditions expected on race day, rain leading up to race day will likely see the track present in the heavy range, working off a Heavy 9 at this stage.
- The rail returns to the true position for today’s meeting.
- Expect a fair track despite the conditions, with runners likely to come wider in the straight towards the middle of the track as the meeting progresses, as is often the case at Morphettville when it is wet.
Stats That Matter
- Todd Pannell is finding good form after riding a double last weekend. He has ridden 16 winners from his last 100 rides for a POT of +15.4%. Harry Grace is also operating at a winning strike rate of 16%.
- Patrick Payne’s stable is often very successful in the winter months and it is no different so far this season, with 24 winners from his last 100 runners for a POT of +28.3%. He looks likely to bring two runners across the border for this meeting.
Race 1
(6) Harsh took a step up in grade in her last start and blew away a similar field to what she meets again here today. She gets a similar set-up at the weights and the wet conditions look suitable stepping up slightly in trip, so she looks hard to beat if she runs up to last start.
(4) Jaykayann looks likely to get her ideal conditions on a heavy track, having won three of four starts in similar conditions. She is fit deep into the preparation and looks well suited in this set-up.
(3) Wuddzz is another runner who is best suited on wet tracks so should get ideal conditions. The wide barrier makes things a little tougher, but he sets up well on this track.
(1) Kirkliston Blu was second behind the favourite last start. He can get to the front and look to lead here which could be an advantage, and he has a good record at this track and distance.
Selections
(6) Harsh
(4) Jaykayann
(3) Wuddzz
(1) Kirkliston Blu
Suggested Bet: (6) Harsh – Win
Race 2
(4) No Bail was met with good market support when resuming but may have gotten too far back and couldn’t make up enough ground late. His recent trial leading into that first-up run was good, so now fitter he can improve and be stronger through the line down in the weights.
(5) Power Dancer ran a close second behind a well-supported runner last start. That maiden rated quite well and he is fitter second-up now, although he does need to navigate a wide barrier.
(14) Grand Millesime makes his debut for a new stable. His previous form was solid, missing the top three only once in five starts, and he comes into this race in good order after two trials.
(7) Street Legal made a solid return to racing when running a close second here at Morphettville. This race should not set up much harder, although he may need some luck from a wide gate.
Selections
(4) No Bail
(5) Power Dancer
(14) Grand Millesime
(7) Street Legal
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(10) From The Block was part of a close finish when running third behind the talented Lingani last start. This race is a slight drop in grade and he sets up for a similar run in suitable wet conditions. He maps ideally from a low barrier, gets in light and looks tough to beat.
(9) Invertational comes out of the same race where she finished ahead of From The Block but enjoyed a much better barrier there. She maps for a tougher run today from a wide gate but should still be around the mark with luck.
(5) Jacks On Ice had to work hard on speed last start but with a softer run today he can be stronger late, especially now that he reaches peak fitness third-up.
(6) Metrical has the right last-start form reference and handles wet ground. He gets in light at the weights and should be strong through the line again.
Selections
(10) From The Block
(9) Invertational
(5) Jacks On Ice
(6) Metrical
Suggested Bet: (10) From The Block – Win
Race 4
(6) Orlova was strong late in her last run when finishing a close second behind the in-form Royal Sway. That looks a strong form line for this race and she comes here fitter with a similar set-up.
(1) Zentorno was a soft winner at a short quote at Seymour last start. He looks suited by the wet ground and is now at peak fitness third-up.
(7) Posh Diamante ran a close third in a strong form race last start. She maps well from barrier three and can settle closer, leaving herself less to do late.
(5) Pierroplane won well at Port Augusta on debut. This is harder, but he maps as the likely leader and could prove hard to run down.
Selections
(6) Orlova
(1) Zentorno
(7) Posh Diamante
(5) Pierroplane
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(12) Queen Christine was solid behind a handy runner at Swan Hill last start. This looks a potential drop in grade and she gets onto a heavy track, which should suit given her strong wet-track record of 3:1-1-1.
(8) Miss Orth impressed when winning a similar race last start. She should relish the wet conditions but will need some luck from a wide barrier.
(5) Garcon Renard hit the line well first-up when running into the placings. He is fitter now second-up and handles wet ground.
(4) Taken To Task has won his past two starts. This is a rise in grade, but it is difficult to knock winning form.
Selections
(12) Queen Christine
(8) Miss Orth
(5) Garcon Renard
(4) Taken To Task
Suggested Bet: (12) Queen Christine – Each Way
Race 6
(1) Hard Leaf made a mess of his rivals in the wet at Mount Gambier last start. He has been thriving in wet conditions and the slight rise in distance should suit.
(5) Maxildo managed to place in a similar race last start and boasts an excellent heavy-track record of 3:2-0-0.
(6) Wind Rush hit the line strongly last start and should appreciate returning to 1500m.
(11) France’s Boy is a tough veteran who can inject speed into the race and give them something to catch.
Selections
(1) Hard Leaf
(5) Maxildo
(6) Wind Rush
(11) France’s Boy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
(8) Our Sassy Lady had little luck earlier this preparation before getting the breaks she needed last time and winning comfortably. There does not appear to be much speed in this race, which should allow her to settle prominently again.
(3) Longer Route was solid when resuming. He drops in grade and should improve with that run under the belt.
(1) Em Sixty looks suited rising in distance after hitting the line well at Swan Hill last start. Wet ground should not be an issue.
(6) Flash Alice is a last-start winner who found improvement stepping up in trip. If she handles the wet conditions, she can be competitive again.
Selections
(8) Our Sassy Lady
(3) Longer Route
(1) Em Sixty
(6) Flash Alice
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
(7) Hooked On Wealth comes into this race freshened after finishing a close third behind a pair of handy runners. He has a consistent record at this track and distance and handles wet ground.
(4) Orthies has placed at his past two starts, including a close second in a strong field last time. The drop in distance and softer run should suit.
(11) Heaven Rocks has been moderate in his past two runs but has had excuses in both. He is now at peak fitness and can improve sharply if he handles the conditions.
(1) Howl is a consistent performer who has a strong record at the track and distance and should be hitting the line hard.
Selections
(7) Hooked On Wealth
(4) Orthies
(11) Heaven Rocks
(1) Howl
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9
(2) Free Beer may have found the right set-up here and can run a big race at attractive odds. He is unbeaten in three starts on heavy ground and boasts an excellent third-up record of 4:2-2-0.
(5) Mongolian Gobi is a last-start winner on a heavy track, making it two wins from two starts on wet ground. Conditions will suit again.
(11) Hot Strut has run third at both starts this preparation and looks at peak fitness. He can race prominently despite the draw.
(9) Major Rumble was runner-up when resuming at Murray Bridge and should appreciate the rise in distance second-up.
Selections
(2) Free Beer
(5) Mongolian Gobi
(11) Hot Strut
(9) Major Rumble
Suggested Bet: (2) Free Beer – Each Way
