Summary of Best Bets:
- Best Bet: Race 6 – (6) Gazelle
- Next Best: Race 5 – (2) Chur Nibble
- Best Value: Race 8 – (11) Kalosyni
Turf Talk:
- The track is currently rated a Soft 6 with no showers forecast and clear conditions, small chance of an improvement but expect the rating to remain in the soft range.
- The rail moves out to +12m 900m-Winning Post, +12m Winning Post-1800m and +9m the remainder.
- Murray Bridge is a big, open track, so despite the rail pushing out it should still play fairly. Expect runners to come down the middle of the straight, with those finding cover in the run generally advantaged.
Key Stats:
- Alysha Warren’s 1.5kg claim is important at this time of year and she is in super form, with 13 winners from her last 100 rides at a POT of +27.1%.
- Harry Grace is riding winners consistently with 11 from his last 100 rides, but those haven’t come at much value and his POT return for punters is -38.9%.
- Travis Doudle had a successful weekend with three winners and has produced 20 winners from his last 100 runners at a POT of +22.8%.
- Aaron Bain & Ned Taylor are proving tough to catch of late with only the 7 winners from their last 100 runners and a negative POT of -57.8%
Race 1
(4) Et Tu Kirkliston ran well in testing conditions last start in what appears to be a stronger maiden, he can improve rising in distance and potentially on the better track.
(8) Latibulate is on debut after winning a jump-out before a quieter trial. He maps to get a lovely run from barrier three with a senior jockey aboard. Looks capable of making a strong debut
(2) Blazing Red sets up for the right run out of barrier 1 and should put himself in a nice position in run to give him his best chance.
(1) A Time To Kill made his debut in a strong maiden but finished well out the back, not sure he appreciated the conditions so can see him improving sharply
Selections:
(4) Et Tu Kirkliston
(8) Latibulate
(2) Blazing Red
(1) A Time To Kill
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(10) Love Kaye made a strong start for her new stable at Balaklava, producing some of the best closing sectionals of the meeting to finish second. She maps for a much kinder run from barrier three and should relish the rise in trip.
(8) Took Gardner has finished runner-up at both career starts and looks ready for the rise in distance. The claim from an in-form apprentice is another positive.
(6) Bay Road Boy has attracted early market support for this debut run off the back of a steady trial. He sets up for a favourable run and can settle in a prominent position that gives him every chance.
(1) GoldFields Grey didn’t threaten much in his last start but getting back to the 1400m trip on a more even track give him a chance to find his better form from earlier in the prep
Selections:
(10) Love Kaye
(8) Took Gardner
(6) Bay Road Boy
(1) Goldfields Grey
Suggested Bet: (10) Love Kaye (Win)
Race 3
Veteran (1) France’s Boy looks well placed dropping back in grade. The last time he contested this level he was a winner at Gawler, he handles all conditions and should get every chance.
(2) Robert The Puss also looks capable of improvement coming back in class and should appreciate the slight rise in distance.
(7) Covert Witness disappointed when dropping in grade last start but may simply not have been suited by that track. Back to the more spacious Murray Bridge circuit and jumping from barrier one should suit.
(6) Retourne is at peak fitness deep into the preparation and can improve coming back in trip. Any improvement in the track conditions would only enhance his chances.
Selections:
(1) France’s Boy
(2) Robert The Puss
(7) Covert Witness
(6) Retourne
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(4) United Legend was scratched from a very winnable race on Sunday to contest this and looks well placed. His recent form stacks up nicely for a race of this nature and his Murray Bridge record of three starts for two wins and a placing is hard to ignore.
(2) High Society Girl has been only fair this preparation but she traditionally improves with racing. Fourth-up, back in grade and up to a more suitable trip all point towards improvement.
(7) Rikki Rikkardo has been racing consistently in similar grade races and should enjoy a soft run from barrier one, making her another genuine winning hope.
(8) Chartin will be better suited here dropping well down in grade and on improving conditions, expecting an improvement on last starts result
Selections:
(4) United Legend
(2) High Society Girl
(7) Rikki Rikkardo
(8) Chartin
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(2) Chur Nibble resumes from a break after competing in much stronger company last campaign. He has performed well fresh previously, looked sharp in a recent trial and looks ideally placed dropping back in grade.
(3) Dreams Fulfilled has been only fair in recent starts but those efforts came in stronger races. The drop in class and rise to 1400m look ideal.
(9) Hazy Daze couldn’t match them first-up but should derive plenty of benefit from that run and can improve second-up with a kinder run in transit.
(4) Ironbar appeared to be outclassed in his last start, drops sharply back in grade and handles wet conditions, looks a chance to bounce back to better form.
Selections:
(2) Chur Nibble
(3) Dreams Fulfilled
(9) Hazy Daze
(4) Ironbar
Suggested Bet: (2) Chur Nibble (Win)
Race 6
(6) Gazelle smashed her rivals when breaking her maiden at Mount Gambier before stepping sharply in grade at this track, where she flashed home to be beaten just half a length in city company. She drops back in class here and the rise in distance looks ideal. If she reproduces either of her last two runs, she’ll prove very hard to hold out.
(7) Stolen Kiss looks well placed to improve dropping back in grade and should appreciate getting onto more favourable track conditions than she faced last start.
(8) Make Me A Star showed ability early this campaign before finding stronger company beyond her at her past two starts. Back in grade and returning to a track where she has a good record, she should be charging late.
(4) One Kind failed to fire last time but may not have handled the dirt surface. Back onto a Soft track and drawn to enjoy the run of the race, she can bounce back.
Selections:
(6) Gazelle
(7) Stolen Kiss
(8) Make Me A Star
(4) One Kind
Suggested Bet: (6) Gazelle (Win)
Race 7
(2) Sioux Warrior couldn’t be racing any better after winning his past two starts. He rates highly again and gets further assistance from Alysha Warren’s 1.5kg claim.
(5) Koratora looks capable of improving back in grade. She has good early speed and may well find the front from barrier two.
(1) Squad was a winner two starts ago before tackling a stronger race and failing last time. Can bounce back down in grade and has early speed which could suit over this sprint trip.
(11) Bellentia resumes here, she was sharp in a recent trial win at Murray Bridge and looks likely to be in good order for this.
Note, was keen on (3) Steel Tsunami in this race and he remains in this field but did race Saturday so expecting him to come out of the field
Selections:
(2) Sioux Warrior
(5) Koratora
(1) Squad
(11) Bellentia
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
A very open race closes the program.
(11) Kalosyni mixed her form last preparation but looks to have found a suitable first-up assignment. She has won fresh previously, maps to enjoy a soft run and gets in well at the weights.
(2) Flying Ace resumed for his new stable with a midfield finish and should strip fitter second-up. An inside draw gives him every chance to settle much closer in the run.
(9) Shalhavmusik resumes after racing in stronger company last campaign. He drops in grade and has previously won at Murray Bridge.
There isn’t a great deal of early speed in this race which could see (3) Ilovenews find a good position quickly in the run jumping from barrier 1. He is fitter 2nd up also so has scope to improve on last start.
Selections:
(11) Kalosyni
(2) Flying Ace
(9) Shalhavmusik
(12) Mondello
Suggested Bet: (11) Kalosyni (Eachway)
