Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet – Race 5 (1) Imamanzor
Next Best – Race 6 (3) Falanghina
Next Best – Race 8 (6) Good Expectations
Turf Talk
- Overcast conditions and showers are forecast through the start of the week, so expecting a Soft 5 for today’s meeting.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +12m from the 900m to the winning post, +12m in the 1200m chute and +9m the remainder.
- A big open track so it should play fairly besides the wide rail position.
Stats that matter
- Garret Lynch continues his strong form producing 17 winners from his last 100 runners and returning a POT of +49.7%.
- Jacob Opperman has ridden 20 winners in his last 100 rides with a POT return of +17.2%. He rides well at this track returning a POT of +22.5% here alone.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Looks a suitable kick off point for the resuming (3) Norheim, having been competitive in his debut campaign but has had more time to develop since. He jumps from barrier 1 so should land handy in the run and won a recent trial which suggests he is in good order fresh.
(10) Bilk was well supported on debut and managed to run into the placings; he should certainly take improvement out of that run but from a wide barrier he potentially gets back and will need the right runs to open up for him late.
(7) Ratadash looked good when winning a recent trial at Oakbank which suggests she can resume for this prep in good order.
(1) Defy Gravity makes his debut, his trial form has been solid, so he looks capable of producing a winning run and gets a suitable race map for a runner making his debut.
Selections:
(3) Norheim
(10) Bilk
(7) Ratadash
(1) Defy Gravity
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(5) Nordic Viking makes his debut for a new stable; the races he was contesting back in New South Wales were stronger than what he lines up for here today so if he can transfer that form over he should prove hard to beat despite a tricky barrier.
(6) Wine Snob was hitting the line strongly when resuming and will likely be fitter for having had that run now, he jumps from barrier 4 which should put him in an ideal position early in the run.
(7) Forever A Diamond is on the quick back up having been met with strong support last week, there isn’t much speed here so if she can be more positive in the run today, she could find herself in a stronger position.
(10) Kayla Kruzen has looked close to a win this prep with two 2nd placings so far, Harry Grace is in good form so looks likely to put her into an ideal position from barrier 6 and she can improve.
Selections:
(5) Nordic Viking
(6) Wine Snob
(7) Forever A Diamond
(10) Kayla Kruzen
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(13) Quillan was hitting the line strongly last start here at Murray Bridge but ran out of time to reel in the winner. She gets in light at the weights again today and should be suited with the rise in distance as well, the wide barrier may not look ideal but she likely settles back in the run anyway.
(6) Green Summer recently made his debut in a stronger Maiden at Morphettville, he should be better for that run and looks suited at this level when rising in distance so expecting an improved performance.
(5) Artful Maximus maps as the likely race leader and will jump from barrier 1 so should find that position quickly, if he can get some cheap sectionals out in front he could prove hard to catch.
(10) Hell’s On Fire hit the line strongly on debut so expected to handle a rise in distance for this and will be better for her debut run.
Selections:
(13) Quillan
(6) Green Summer
(5) Artful Maximus
(10) Hell’s On Fire
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(9) Big Rita June has had 4 runs this prep and finished worse than midfield in all of those but those races were well up in grade including contesting Group level races the Auraria and Chairman’s Stakes. She is rock hard fit and down sharply in grade so can improve.
(10) Blue Isles never got into the race last start but if you look at her form prior to that run, she was running into the placings in grades above this. She can bounce back coming down in level.
(2) United Legend ran a close second in a similar race to this last start, he had to do some work from a wide barrier last time but still stuck on well, he is required to do that again here but has shown he is capable.
(13) Goodwin Guru is still a maiden runner who takes on the more seasoned horses here, but she has been hitting the line strongly so could break through now she gets to a suitable distance range.
Selections:
(9) Big Rita June
(10) Blue Isles
(2) United Legend
(13) Goodwin Guru
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Imamanzor has found strong form again since his recent win at Oakbank, since then he has gone on to place in a stronger race at Morphettville and now is dropping back in level which should bring him on. He rates highly in this field and gets back down in the weights after a handy apprentice claim. If he holds his recent form, he will prove hard to beat.
(2) Golden Guru won his maiden here last start and looks to step up in level now. He was strong through the line last time so should appreciate the step up in distance today.
(4) Leliyn was doing his best work late in the race at Gawler last time, he should appreciate getting to the bigger track and rising to the 1400m distance can set him up well.
(10) Suit Of Wands resumes down in grade from where he finished last prep, his best runs have come over further distances so he may need this run but look for him to be hitting the line strongly.
Selections:
(1) Imamanzor
(2) Golden Guru
(4) Leliyn
(10) Suit Of Wands
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Imamanzor
Race 6
(3) Falanghina has finished worse than midfield in his last 2 runs but will find this race a considerable drop in class from both of those races. He gets here to his pet distance and peak fitness so looks much better suited and should be a sharp improver.
(6) High Garden was outclassed in his resuming run at Morphettville. He is better suited back down in grade and getting back to the 1400m trip which he has had success over previously.
(2) Gruelling looks the likely leader of the race given his most recent runs, the wide barrier makes it tricky, but he can put a genuine tempo into the race which may take a few of these out of their comfort zone.
(8) Casino Showgirl is lightly raced, in a messy race map she may get run of the race and should be better suited down in grade.
Selections:
(3) Falanghina
(6) High Garden
(2) Gruelling
(8) Casino Showgirl
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Falanghina
Race 7
(5) Flash Alice lost her rider last start so it is a complete forget run there and if we look back at her previous form, she was competitive in stronger races so she can bounce back here. She gets a light weight and in a race with plenty of speed she should get a favourable run behind those leaders.
(4) Head Of The Herd rated well when winning over this track and distance last time out, this is a small rise in level today but if he can at least hold his level of form, he should be fighting this out late.
(3) Dunreal was a big drifter when resuming but looks much better suited today rising in distance. He needs sharp improvement on that last run but the form he found through his last prep would be good enough to win a race of this level.
(10) Alpine Lee won her last start to break through in Maiden grade and should now be suited rising in distance. She has confidence now and jumping from barrier 1 will see her land handy, can go on with it from here.
Selections:
(5) Flash Alice
(4) Head Of The Herd
(3) Dunreal
(10) Alpine Lee
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(6) Good Expectations has been solid in 2 runs so far this prep when running 2nd in both and, while being beaten by large margins, she has been consistent and can put in a peak performance third-up into the prep now. There maps to be a quick speed here so she can be set up to be running on late.
(8) Stylish Sparkle impressed when winning on debut and has since been freshened up coming into this now. She smashed the line last start when winning so expect the slight rise in distance to suit but she cannot afford to go back too far from barrier 1 and get caught on the fence.
Selections:
(6) Good Expectations
(8) Stylish Sparkle
Suggested Bet: Win (6) Good Expectations
