Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 4 (2) Hard Leaf
- Next Best: Race 6 (2) Naralinga
Turf Talk:
- The track is currently rated a Heavy 8. Despite a clear weather forecast, cool temperatures are expected to prevent any significant improvement in the surface.
- The rail remains +2m from the 800m to the 600m and True for the remainder, the same configuration used at the previous eight meetings.
- Generally, Naracoorte provides a slight advantage to runners settling forward of midfield, so positive race patterns should again be favoured.
Key Stats:
- Stacey Metcalfe has been extremely profitable for punters of late, riding 12 winners from her last 100 rides for a remarkable +55.8% POT.
- Stephen Theodore continues to excel at Naracoorte with a 38.9% winning strike rate and an outstanding +50.5% POT.
- Rochelle Milnes has won just eight of her past 100 rides overall, but her Naracoorte record is excellent, striking at 18.4% with a +40.9% POT.
Race 4
(2) Hard Leaf drops back in grade after contesting stronger races at his past two starts. He was racing in excellent form earlier this preparation at this level and relishes genuinely wet ground. Returning to these conditions gives him every opportunity to bounce back.
(1) Bit Of A Rebel rates highly and maps to settle on speed. He strips fitter second-up, where he boasts a strong record, and will take catching if he handles the big weight.
(3) Ironbar rediscovered winning form when dropping in grade last start. He remains at a suitable level here and wet conditions are again in his favour.
Veteran (5) Loose Lip Lloyd demolished his rivals at Mount Gambier last start. He rises slightly in grade but is another who thrives in the wet and deserves respect.
(2) Hard Leaf
(1) Bit Of A Rebel
(3) Ironbar
(5) Loose Lip Lloyd
Suggested Bet: (2) Hard Leaf – WIN
Race 6
(2) Naralinga finished strongly at Mount Gambier last start but was narrowly denied. The main query is whether he concedes too much of a start, but he drops slightly in grade and should relish the wet conditions. If the track is playing fairly, he’ll be charging home late.
(4) Testing One Two resumed with a solid placing and will strip fitter second-up. This race may be a touch easier, although the testing conditions remain a query.
Local galloper (6) Gusty Way broke through for a deserved victory last start. He handles wet tracks, draws well in barrier two and should enjoy an economical run throughout.
(8) Impending Diamond was well supported when dropping in grade last start but never featured after settling midfield. He finds another suitable race here and the wet conditions are in his favour, making him capable of bouncing back.
(2) Naralinga
(4) Testing One Two
(6) Gusty Way
(8) Impending Diamond
Suggested Bet: (2) Naralinga – WIN
