Race 1: 3YO SW&P (1200m)
The speed map is unclear with no designated leader. MARY SHAN came from midfield to run down a disappointing El Vencedor in the G3 Northern Challenge Stakes. Her versatility to position close to the speed gives her an edge in this race over class runner PROVENCE, a three-time G1 winner, one of those coming at Ellerslie last season in the Breeders Stakes. She received all favours winning the Mufhasa Classic last start when afforded the plum run, leaders back on a moderate tempo. A 49 day gap between runs into this and a poor draw to overcome. ROMILLY was ridden with more intent to score last time, loses Craig Grylls and barrier is a negative. IMPREVU represents value, a recent trial winner and drawn to strike.
Suggested Bet: MARY SHAN
Race 2: 3YO SW&P (1200m)
This race can set up nicely for CREAM TART off an 11 week gap from the G1 1000 Guineas. Proven to be a superior wet tracker in her short career to date, with the forecast rain and hot speed expected she can swoop down the middle of the track. Te Akau hold a strong hand. Unbeaten filly DROPS OF GOD rates highly, impressive on debut and again at Ellerslie riding a fast speed and quickened up to win in fast time. The wide barrier is grim with so much speed to her inside. Progressive colt KING’S ENGLISH showed his versatility coming from off the pace last start and maps similar, wet track query. BELLE CHEVAL has early support in betting and easy to see why faring best of the trio landing in behind the pace, blinkers on.
Suggested Bet: CREAM TART
Race 3: 4YO SW (1600m)
Formerly trained by S & K Alexander, KNOBELAS is placed to win coming across from Australia, her action improves right-handed and the forecast rain is favourable. A glorified barrier trial at Flemington last start brings her here ready to peak. TUXEDO is best of the locals, appreciates wet ground and has a race shape to suit, he can be soft at the pointy end of his races and now has blinkers added, this could be a winning gear change. VEGAS QUEEN is progressive and recent trial suggests still on an upward trajectory. SHE’S A DEALER was forced to sustain a long run in the G2 Rich Hill Stakes and faded late, softer draw this time helps.
Suggested Bet: KNOBELAS
Race 4: 2YO SW (1200m)
Hardest race of the day. Throw in a possible wet track and overseas visitors and it screams caution. Playing STROMLINIEN at odds after a narrow debut win at Ellerslie, no trial and no market support, she was given time to balance up early and finished off her work in good style, can improve sharply into this and needs to to match Te Akau’s leading charge, KINNAIRD, unbeaten in two starts, stepping up to G2 level his latest, blinkers added for his target. DE ARMAS is a natural 2YO and thrived on a wet track on debut at Otaki with her short, nippy action. A high pressure 1200m is the big question.
Suggested Bet: STROMLINIEN
Race 5: 3YO SW (1600m)
WELL WRITTEN has had a faultless start to her career, unbeaten in four starts and facing her stiffest test. Her jockey Matt Cartwright was soft on the filly when made to work for the win in the G2 Auckland Guineas and still reeled off impressive numbers. The Written Tycoon breed fly fresh and comes into her target race off 29 days and sure to be screwed down. With a positive map, clear horse to beat. LA DORADA has the ratings profile to command respect, appears ready to peak third-up after winning the Levin Classic and won the 2YO equivalent of this race last year, soft track no issue. AFFIRMATIVE ACTION is consistently underrated, track conditions likely to favour. CHILLING OUT is the up and comer out of the lower levels, one for multiples.
Suggested Bet: WELL WRITTEN
Race 6: OPEN SW&P (1200m)
ALABAMA LASS was crunched in betting in this race last year and was mugged late by a blinkered-up CROCETTI on the line. First-up for an elite first-up stable, her recent trial was superb, handles soft and chances only improve on a drying track. She has company for the lead speed with the visiting JIGSAW, a grand old sprinter in winning form, been up a while and the forecast would only hinder his chances. The race opens right up behind the pair, ESPIONAGE made a strong start to his NZ career for Walker & Bergerson, he’s proven on wet tracks and well drawn and SWEYNESDAY is progressive with a booming finish.
Suggested Bet: None
