Betsy’s NZ Trial Watcher brings a sharp eye to New Zealand racing, combining detailed trial analysis with strong race form assessment to identify betting opportunities across the card. For Saturday’s Tauranga meeting he has broken down the key races, highlighting the runners best placed to perform and where the value lies for punters.
Race 2: (R75/2100m)
Tempo: Moderate
HIGH COUNTRY is a bet if the track remains dry. Fresh off 57 days he went forward from a wide barrier, sat 2nd and took over at the top of the straight for a soft win. The change in gear (blinkers off/winkers on) had a positive effect and a repeat performance has him in the box seat to win again. Happy to take on (1) JUST CALL ME JONNY had all favours when left alone at Te Rapa, now 35 days between runs and gives away weight and has company for the lead speed. (5) APEX has improved her profile since the addition of blinkers winning her past two, enjoyed the perfect run to score at Matamata and is a mare in form and open to further improvement.
Race 5: (Open/1200m)
Tempo: Fast
(2) DECEMBER brings outstanding form lines for this contest and is set to peak third-up into the preparation off 278 days. Luckless fresh going to the line hard held, he was given a trial between runs and then produced a herculean performance second-up when trapped wide throughout and beaten narrowly. Soft draw with speed on and perfect map, clear horse to beat.
Suggested Bet: DECEMBER (Best)
Race 6: (3YO SW+P 1200m)
Tempo: Above Average
Excellent placement for (1) PLATINUM PANTHEON finding a poor race at set weights against his own age as he looks set to continue building on his impressive record. Heavily-bet late at Trentham in a weird race. It was expected to be a fast run affair but they sat off the outsider of the field who kept running, the Lisa Latta-trained gelding was the only horse to make ground on the winner. At his best when able to get his toe in, the softening track conditions are favourable.
Suggested Bet: PLATINUM PANTHEON (Next Best)
Race 7: (OPEN SW&P 1600m)
Tempo: Above Average
Feature event. (1) STERLING EXPRESS is ultra-consistent and has contested Group 1 racing at his past five starts. He gets a welcome drop in grade and is weighted to strike. His last win came in the Foxbridge Plate at G2 level at weight-for-age. His negative racing style means he requires tempo and luck, one of those is assured with (2) KHAFRE and a rejuvenated (6) LEROY BROWN crossing from a wide barrier to share the lead and ensure a truly run race. (3) QALI AL FARRASHA has raced below her best this time in and has been freshened, pay to forgive last start when too far back. Sitting forward of midfield behind the speed she has a tactical advanatge on her main danger. (9) FRANK THE TANK is well out of his grade, however, he does a possess a fast closing split and can charge at them late.
Race 8: (R65/1600m)
Tempo: Average
Wide open affair. (12) MADAME KIWI broke through for a win swooping from the rear on a slow speed at Hawera, she had been pushing forward in previous runs and looked better with something to chase, she represents value in the market as a Top 3 chance. (11) GALLINDA has been most unlucky in her six-start career to date with race shapes and bad barriers. Forget she went around last start at Matamata on a wet deck when back and wide on a day where the rail was hot. Form prior very solid for this low race and Tayla Mitchell returns to the saddle, again drawn wide and needing luck, value at the quote. (1) ANDAHAR is racing well, brave off a wide run at Otaki and faded late. Shadow roll off, blinkers on, may roll forward.
Suggested Bets: (11) GALLINDA & (12) MADAME KIWI
