Best Bets
Best Bet – R6 (1) Zebra Finch
Next Best – R3 (9) Loft Vega
Value Bet – R8 (4) Centu Cavaddi
Track
- The track is expected to be wet again and likely worse than last week, so working off a Heavy 8 or worse.
- The rail remains in the same position as last week and will be +6m the entire circuit.
- Given the wet conditions again and the same rail position, runners will likely look to come away from the rails again in the straight and be advantaged if they can settle better than midfield in the run.
Stats that matter
- Lachy Neindorf gets back into the saddle this week after a long suspension. Before his break he was in strong form, riding 18 winners from his previous 100 rides and producing a POT of +16.2%. He was also in form here at Pakenham, returning a POT of +34.6%.
- Continue to reference the form Julius Sandhu’s stable is in when he brings multiple runners to the track. He has produced 22 winners from his previous 100 runners with a POT of +49.4%.
Race 3
(9) Loft Vega was met with good support in her debut run here two weeks ago. She had little luck at a critical stage and could only manage to run into the placings. Feel she will be much better for the experience of that race under the lights and in similar sticky conditions.
(2) French Gift resumes for his second career prep. He has heavy track experience which should be an advantage and his recent trials were solid. The wide barrier may not be ideal but he may have the speed to cross quickly in the early stages.
(1) Blue Blue Day has run midfield in two starts so far in his career. A rise in trip again for this should suit.
(7) Hurry Up Poppy comes into this race fresh. She showed improvement after her debut run when finishing in the placings here at Pakenham on a heavy track, so conditions may suit her.
Selections:
(9) Loft Vega
(2) French Gift
(1) Blue Blue Day
(7) Hurry Up Poppy
Suggested Bet: (9) Loft Vega (Win)
Race 6
(1) Zebra Finch resumes for this today. He hasn’t been a winner first-up previously in his career but he is kicking off down in level from where he finished last prep and he has also proven himself in wet conditions, with the best run of his career coming on a heavy track, so expect he can be well suited here.
(2) Mongolian Gobi is down in grade from his first-up run and has won his only other start on a heavy track, so he could find improvement here.
(8) Unriddle broke through for his maiden win after a long string of placings and may now have the confidence to go on with it and win again.
(4) Artful Lodger resumes. She has won first-up before but her key advantage here today looks like it could be the race map. With most of the early speed coming out of the race post-scratchings, she may find herself in a strong position early and get a soft run.
Selections:
(1) Zebra Finch
(2) Mongolian Gobi
(8) Unriddle
(4) Artful Lodger
Suggested Bet: (1) Zebra Finch (Win)
Race 8
(2) Gallant Prince is at peak fitness third-up today. He has a super record over this track and distance setup (4:2-1-0), so expecting another consistent performance in a setup he is suited in.
(8) Mongolian City was a big winner at Kilmore when resuming. If he can find improvement from that run he should handle a rise in grade.
(3) Blue Bandit maps for the run of the race jumping from barrier one. He can settle close to the lead and get an ideal run. He should have no issues on a heavy track.
(5) Queensbury is another who can settle in a handy position. He was moderate first-up but gets a chance to improve fitter second-up and a wet track should not disadvantage him.
Selections:
(2) Gallant Prince
(8) Mongolian City
(3) Blue Bandit
(5) Queensbury
Suggested Bet: (2) Gallant Prince (Win)
