Another week, another stack of wet tracks around the country.
All five metro meetings are expected to be run on soft or heavy ground and, as always, that brings fitness, wet-track form and proven performance under pressure right to the forefront.
I’m also very happy to side with horses on the quick backup this weekend.
Let’s start in Brisbane.
Eagle Farm
It’s been raining for what feels like forever in South-East Queensland and while the forecast is finally improving, we’re still expecting a Heavy 8 for Queensland Derby Day.
I’m actually leaning towards the track improving slightly throughout the day if the sun stays out, but I’m still heavily weighting proven soft and heavy-track form in my assessments.
The rail is in the True position and the Barrier vs Historical Run Style data continues to paint a very clear picture.
On speed horses have a significant edge. Runners that settle forward own an A2E of 1.18, making Eagle Farm one of the stronger on-pace profiles in the country when the rail is True.
By contrast, horses that settle back from wide barriers face a significant challenge, producing an A2E of just 0.65.
That profile puts a number of popular runners under pressure before they even jump.
Take caution with Hidden Achievement (R1), Stormy Marco (R4), Tavi Time and Miss Joelene (R5), Monopolistic, Solid Gold and Providence (R7), Fangirl and Splash Back (R8) and Akaysha (R9).
The jockey data becomes a little less useful during carnival season when the nation’s elite riders descend on Brisbane, but a couple of locals continue to stand out.
Tahlia Fenlon remains one of the most profitable jockeys in Queensland racing and Martin Harley continues to deliver when riding for the state’s leading stables.
Caulfield & Rosehill
The usual track profile edges remain in play at both Caulfield and Rosehill. One of my favourite angles continues to be wide-drawn runners that can settle forward at Caulfield.
That combination is producing an A2E of 1.18 and consistently outperforms market expectations.
As always, map matters.
Now, onto the all-important bets….
Eagle Farm Race 5 (1800m)
J-Mac looks hard to beat aboard Lyles earlier in the day, but my first investment comes later with Militarize. He’s fit, proven at Group level and handles heavy ground.
The market isn’t giving away any gifts at around $3, but the map concerns surrounding Tavi Time and Miss Joelene make Militarize the horse I want to be with.
Eagle Farm Race 6 (1400m)
Skyhook is one of my better bets of the day at around $7. He leads the Top 4 Performers tally, tops the PF AI rankings and maps to get every chance.
Importantly, his benchmark performances in these conditions are the strongest in the field.
Eagle Farm Race 7 (2400m)
The market has done a good job with the three favourites, but none of them look particularly well-mapped and around $5 in a Group 1 over 2400m doesn’t excite me.
I’m siding with Kilman at $9.50. The PF AI likes him, the map is positive, Chris Waller is airborne and he owns some of the strongest wet-track performances in the race.
Eagle Farm Race 8 (1300m)
Skybird ($17) looks the value runner in the Kingsford Smith Cup at around $17. The benchmarks stack up, she ranks number one for closing speed and looks significantly over the odds.
Jimmysstar has plenty of admirers but his price has compressed to the point where others now represent better value.
Fangirl and Private Eye are the two runners that worry me most.
Caulfield Race 5 (1600m)
El Rocko ($3.30) is one of the strongest-rated runners in the entire PF database this weekend. Jamie Mott is flying, the horse ranks first for last-start performance, PF AI Score and Weight Class Price, and almost every key benchmark points towards him.
See That Storm is the obvious danger.
Caulfield Race 7 (1100m)
Jamie Mott could have a very big afternoon, including Rosberg. The Clint McDonald stable continues to outperform the market and the gelded three-year-old returns with competitive ratings and a positive profile.
The market support on the back of being gelded is also encouraging.
Caulfield Race 8 (1100m)
I generally approach Perth horses heading east with caution. But Bustling is almost impossible to ignore and he’s now had a couple of starts over east.
The early money has arrived, the PF Score is elite and the map looks perfect. He recorded the fastest last 600m in the race last start and has support from multiple ratings measures.
Caulfield Race 9 (1200m)
Perspiration looks over the odds at around $6. The PF AI has him shorter, Jabez Johnstone’s 3kg claim is valuable and he ranks number one for Race Time Price, Late Speed and Weight Class Price.
He’ll be giving them a start, but if the race is run to suit, he’ll be charging late.
Rosehill Race 5 (1500m)
Crossbow is the bet at around $11. The Waller runner owns some of the strongest benchmarks in the race and also produced the fastest last-start figure in the field.
The price simply looks too big.
Randwick Race 9 (1000m)
I’ll finish in Sydney with Crepe Myrtle. Joe Pride’s mare is rated $5.20 by PF AI and is available around $6.50.
She recorded the strongest benchmark figures at the distance and continues to improve with racing this preparation. Two runs and two trials have her ready to peak.
Belmont Race 6 (1600m)
When in doubt, Pike and Williams. Western Empire is short at around $1.90 but it’s difficult to argue against him.
He’s effectively unbeaten this preparation when including trials and looks to have a class edge over his rivals.
Value Plays…
The roughie column hasn’t been firing recently. I think that changes tomorrow.
- Caulfield R2 – Sun Setting ($9.50)
- Randwick R9 – Imperialist ($18)
- Morphettville R7 – Sharendipity ($23)
- Morphettville R9 – Astunner ($14)
Good luck if you’re playing this weekend.
James and the Punting Form Team
