There are times to sit on the fence, respect the opposition and leave yourself a little wriggle room if things go wrong.
This isn’t one of them.
Autumn Glow won’t lose the Winx Stakes.
She faces arguably the most exciting horse in the country in Sheza Alibi, along with a field containing genuine Group 1 quality, but everything about Saturday’s 1400m contest points towards Autumn Glow.
The map suits. The distance suits. The conditions suit. Her trials have been spot on. And, crucially, the race looks set to be run in a manner that gives her a significant tactical advantage over her main danger.
If Sheza Alibi can overcome all that and beat her, then we might be looking at the best horse in Australia.
But I don’t think she will.
Track Pattern – Rail True Entire
Expecting a Soft 6 to Soft 7 track here. With the rail in the True position, Randwick should play very evenly overall, although I expect there to be an advantage in getting off the fence and into lanes 4-8 in the straight.
That should pose no problems for Autumn Glow, who maps to get every opportunity.
Speed Map
There isn’t a huge amount of obvious speed.
Lindermann and Beiwacht are the two main influences up front, while Barnavara is the wildcard. She has the speed to lead this field on her ear, but from the wide draw there has to be some chance she is snagged back or even scratched.
Midnight Dynamite has race fitness and should be prominent, while Lady Shenandoah and Gringotts can also settle handy.
And this is where the race starts to fall Autumn Glow’s way.
She has drawn beautifully and possesses the tactical speed to land exactly where James McDonald wants her. I’d also expect Luke Nolen to be more positive than usual aboard Sheza Alibi, because giving Autumn Glow a cheap head start in a slowly run 1400m looks a recipe for disaster.
Why Autumn Glow Wins
Autumn Glow
This looks close to the perfect first-up assignment for Sydney’s golden girl.
She has an outstanding fresh record and 1400m is arguably her sweet spot when resuming. Her trials have been exactly what you want to see, she handles wet ground and, most importantly, she owns the tactical versatility that could decide this race.
There isn’t much speed on paper, so Autumn Glow should be able to land nice and prominently without doing any work. From there, McDonald controls his own destiny.
Compare that with Sheza Alibi, who is likely to be spotting her a start and potentially looking for runs from barrier one.
Autumn Glow is a proven fresh 1400m performer, gets conditions to suit, maps perfectly and has the best jockey in the world aboard.
Simply put, her first-up setup is far superior to Sheza Alibi’s.
The Main Danger
Sheza Alibi
If she wins this first-up, I’m prepared to call her the best horse in the country.
Her Doncaster Mile demolition was breathtaking, but it is worth remembering the circumstances. She carried 49kg, had the blinkers on, was fourth-up and at her peak over 1600m.
Saturday is a different test altogether.
She goes straight into weight-for-age company first-up over 1400m, the blinkers are off and barrier one could become awkward if the race turns tactical.
She has trialled extremely well and she might simply be a freak. But if you were designing a race to give Autumn Glow an advantage over her, it would look a lot like this one.
The Others
Beiwacht
His two career peaks have come over 1400m when able to land on speed, and he gets the opportunity to find that exact setup here.
The wet track is the concern. If Randwick gets back towards the Soft 5 range, he becomes very interesting and what looks a race in two could quickly become a trifecta.
His trials have been excellent, he maps beautifully and he should get every chance.
Lindermann
Consistent as the day is long, loves Randwick and is another who should benefit from the lack of speed.
He can roll forward, control his own destiny and make the two star mares come and get him. His best form puts him in the conversation, but the wetter the track gets, the less confident I am about his chances.
Gringotts
If there is a boilover, I think it comes from this bloke.
Wet tracks have brought him undone previously, but if Randwick gets back to a Soft 5, a first-up 1400m assignment off the back of his trials reads extremely well.
At his best, he is capable of making his presence felt.
The Verdict
Autumn Glow – WIN
Sheza Alibi’s presence has done something very important: it has created a betting opportunity in Autumn Glow.
Without the Doncaster winner in this field, I suspect we would be looking at a very short-priced favourite.
Instead, we get to back a mare who is proven fresh, ideally suited at 1400m, handles the conditions, maps to get the run of the race and has James McDonald aboard.
Sheza Alibi may eventually prove to be the better horse. She might even prove to be the best horse in Australia.
