Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 7 (1) Supermassive
- Next Best: Race 4 (9) Jarrito
- Value Bet: Race 5 (4) Deep Pleasure
Turf Talk
- The track is rated a Soft 6 at time of writing. There is a small chance of showers for race day but based on the forecast there doesn’t appear to be enough rain to cause significant downgrades.
- The rail returns to the True position.
- The track will be in its most even setup with this rail position, although it is generally still favourable for runners to settle forward of midfield.
Stats that matter
- Nash Rawiller has found some consistent form over recent weeks. From his last 100 rides he has ridden 21 winners to return a POT of +16%.
- The Hawkes stable has also continued its strong form. From its last 100 runners the stable has produced 21 winners and a POT of +26.6%.
Race 1
(3) Royal Airforce is resuming for his third preparation now and has the clear advantage of race experience after contesting stronger races through his last campaign. He draws barrier 1 which should see him settle in an early position and get every chance for a winning return.
(6) Zouriffic looks the best of the debutants after winning his last two trials leading into this. Those performances suggest he is capable of making a winning start to his career.
(5) Short Sea looks the next best of the newcomers after also being successful at the trials. He jumps from barrier 3 which should land him in a positive position in the run.
(8) Power Hungry has had plenty of chances and is still searching for a maiden victory, but can be positive from barrier 4 and gets in light at the weights so may surprise.
Selections:
(3) Royal Airforce
(6) Zouriffic
(5) Short Sea
(8) Power Hungry
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
There clearly look to be two main chances in this race and the market reflects that. (2) Ready Forcocktails resumes for her second preparation. She ran placings in both starts last prep and those maidens have produced good subsequent form, making this an ideal starting point.
(4) Celestial Charm ran into the placings on debut. She showed good speed and should be fitter today, giving her the chance to go one better if she gets a soft run in front.
(5) On Her Merits improved into the placings last start and from barrier 1 has the potential to lead.
(6) Artistic Lady can mix her form but is generally around the mark. She may not have appreciated the wet conditions last start and should improve on firmer footing.
Selections:
(2) Ready Forcocktails
(4) Celestial Charm
(5) On Her Merits
(6) Artistic Lady
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(2) Konsa looks the one to beat after two good runs so far this prep and running into second in both of those. He hit the line strongly last start but is fitter again now and sets up similarly, so should have enough improvement to go close.
(4) Farset has been consistent this prep with three second placings so far. He looks likely to lead and if he can get a soft run out in front should prove hard to catch.
(11) Snitzel Miss looks suited rising to the 1400m trip now third-up into this prep, can find a favourable run from barrier 5 in a race that appears to lack speed so expect her to be strong late.
(8) Solid has been consistent this prep when running into the placings in three starts. He looks likely to be better suited coming back to the 1400m trip but needs luck from the wide barrier.
Selections:
(2) Konsa
(4) Farset
(11) Snitzel Miss
(8) Solid
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
(9) Jarrito resumes here. She was a winner first-up in her last prep and has shown good speed in her short career, including in a recent trial win. She maps low so can get to the front quickly which lands her in a strong position.
(3) Charlina is a last start winner after a string of good runs prior to that, so she is in good form and even won a recent tick-over trial since her last start run. She looks at peak fitness and also has speed so should race handy.
(2) Lull has finished midfield in two runs so far this prep but those were in much stronger races than what she faces here today so she has the potential to find a level of improvement dropping back down in grade.
(6) Hinzel was a winner on debut and went straight to the paddock off that performance. He is resuming today and if he has found a level of improvement from the debut run he should go close but needs to overcome a wide barrier.
Selections:
(9) Jarrito
(3) Charlina
(2) Lull
(6) Hinzel
Suggested Bet: (9) Jarrito – Win
Race 5
Expecting (4) Deep Pleasure can find a level of improvement in conditions that are expected to suit her better here today and she sets up for a nice run up on speed jumping from barrier 1. Dropping in weight thanks to a handy apprentice claim also sets her up to give her every chance to be strong late in the run.
(2) Surf’s Up has run into the placings in her last two runs, those races rated higher than this so dropping in grade here could help bring her on.
(3) Cherish Me is another runner dropping in grade which should help. Her form to kick off this prep has been moderate but she can improve down in this level and is at peak fitness.
(6) Concordia Wind hit the line strongly first-up. She is suited rising to the 1400m trip fitter now and could be swooping over the top late if the leaders overdo it out in front.
Selections:
(4) Deep Pleasure
(2) Surf’s Up
(3) Cherish Me
(6) Concordia Wind
Suggested Bet: (4) Deep Pleasure – Each Way
Race 6
Have a few horses here that are on the quick backup from last week and meet again. (7) Black Babylon ran second last week but was the runner hitting the line best so now he looks ready and suited for a rise to the 2400m trip. If he performs up to last week’s run he should prove hard to hold out.
(8) So Suave has been consistent this prep including a recent win where he defeated some key rivals in this race. He is coming in fresher than some others and could improve even more on a better track today.
(9) Le Troisir was the winner of last week’s staying race, dropping slightly in weight today and in consistent form so it’s hard to knock his chances off that run.
(1) Casual Connection is dropping in grade which could help him improve. Even with an apprentice claim he still has a big weight to carry but is proven at this distance and should be strong late.
Selections:
(7) Black Babylon
(8) So Suave
(9) Le Troisir
(1) Casual Connection
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
(1) Supermassive has had tough setups in his last couple of starts which have made it difficult for him, but he has been tough in those runs. This sets up to have a slower speed in the early stages so expect he can push forward again and with less pressure on speed he should get a softer run and prove tougher to catch.
(11) Real Baker may not have appreciated the conditions last start so getting back to a better track today could bring on improvement and he is the other runner expected to settle in a positive position.
(5) Rimbaud gets back to the 1400m trip where he has had a consistent record previously. He looks capable of finding his better form deeper into the prep and in an ideal setup.
(2) Frontex may not have appreciated the conditions last start so should be better suited on a Soft track and dropping down in grade. Can improve fitter second-up now.
Selections:
(1) Supermassive
(11) Real Baker
(5) Rimbaud
(2) Frontex
Suggested Bet: (1) Supermassive – Win
