Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 6 No.1 Manaal
Next Best: Race 7 No.1 Tempted
Best Value: Race 9 No.9 Axius
Best Roughie: Race 5 No.9 Campione D’Italia
Race by race overview
Race 1
Keen to side with (10) Bryant here third-up. He was ultra impressive fresh before a smart run second-up behind the in-form duo Caesar and Aisle Two, the wide gate is a query but the wet track and speed on helps.
(12) Change My Address is a fascinating runner overall, out and out wet tracker, and draws to land in the perfect spot.
(6) Let’s Go Again is another who laps up the wet track and has been well backed in early markets. She’ll land on speed and off rails which is the right recipe.
(4) Zaragoza is a gun wet tracker, fit enough now off the last start run and is another who lands off rails.
Selections:
(10) Bryant
(12) Change My Address
(6) Let’s Go Again
(4) Zaragoza
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
As hard as you’ll find a Highway.
The unbeaten (17) Brave Xena goes on top, back to back dominant wins in very similar going to what we should see Saturday. Maps well and gets in light.
(10) Mrs Goldberg would have gone on top if it wasn’t for the inside draw, smart booking with Anna taking 2kg off and does handle wet.
(3) Neil gets Nash Rawiller who teams up again with the Dunn yard. A second-up winner from the past and is unbeaten on heavy.
The race fit (2) Satin Stiletto goes in the mix.
Selections:
(17) Brave Xena
(10) Mrs Goldberg
(3) Neil
(2) Satin Stiletto
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Staying event on the program.
(4) Bear On The Loose goes on top, smart first-up run and can only improve now fitness wise and getting on a wet track.
(8) Glad You Think So is the danger and is massive odds. Strips fitter second-up, but does need a slice of luck from the draw.
(10) Golden Century has once again trialled up like a G1 star, he’s been well backed with the booking of James and goes in the mix.
(6) Mr Monaco draws poorly in gate 1 but has 2000m to get off the inside ground, the booking of Collett is the tick.
Selections:
(4) Bear On The Loose
(8) Glad You Think So
(10) Golden Century
(6) Mr Monaco
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
The G2 Sweet Embrace comes up here for race number 4, impressive contest with the whole field somewhat attacking a wet deck for the first time.
Happy to side with (2) Spicy Miss and her race fitness, she’s bred to get through the going and should land off rails and off speed which is key.
(6) Pembrey brings a dominant rating from her Queensland debut, the camp suggest wet is no issue and she gets McDonald on board, the query is she’ll likely lead and get pushed to the inferior inside ground.
(4) Ciaron’s Star is the map horse, smart second-up win but does have a big question mark on a wet deck looking at her pedigree.
(3) Lumbini brings the grouse Warwoven form to this event, impressive tick over trial and maps a treat. Right in this.
Selections:
(2) Spicy Miss
(6) Pembrey
(4) Ciaron’s Star
(3) Lumbini
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
What an intriguing edition of the G2 Skyline Stakes for the boys.
We see the return of the star 2yo (4) Warwoven off the back of that scratching on race morning for the MM 2yo race. No trials since but the stable have suggested he’s airborne at home. The query is $2.20 fresh on a rain affected deck. Happy to take him on at that quote.
(11) Central Europe and (9) Campione D’Italia go on top, Central Europe has come up big odds, slick trials and gets the right set up from the draw, by Frankel, the wet is the query. Campione D’Italia is the danger, well backed on debut when pulling up 2/5 lame. Back to the trials and looked good again, the big tick is his breeding for this wet track.
(1) Fireball rounds out the numbers but needs to improve again.
Selections:
(9) Campione D’Italia
(11) Central Europe
(4) Warwoven
(1) Fireball
Suggested Bet: Campione D’Italia EW / Central Europe WIN
Race 6
One of the better bets comes up in the Guy Walter Stakes.
Keen to side with the Freedman trained (1) Manaal. The 4yo mare has a superb wet track profile and hits this race second-up with fitness on her side, she has a tactically versatile pattern which suits this race, she should find the 1-1 with the lack of speed up front. Keen.
(4) Verona Rose is the danger, cracking fresh run from the back and should be a lot closer here from gate.
(3) Firestorm has an outstanding fresh profile, back to back quiet trials which should see her explode. The big concern is gate 1 though with this wet deck.
(2) Arctic Glamour is another bomb-fresh mare, she may want it drier though.
Selections:
(1) Manaal
(4) Verona Rose
(3) Firestorm
(2) Arctic Glamour
Suggested Bet: Manaal WIN
Race 7
It’s (1) Tempted’s race to lose on paper. A world class first-up effort when toying with her rivals, she does go up to 1400m and strikes a wet track but all in all she should start shorter and should be winning.
(7) Panova is the danger, she was smart over 1400m last prep and has looked solid at the trials. She’s bred to handle this deck and draws well.
(3) Ole Dancer was given a third trial first-up, Lloyd jumps aboard which is key and she should enjoy the run of the race from 5.
(4) Savvy Hallie is the best wet tracker in the field, she doesn’t have the class of a couple of these but she’s tough, lands on speed and will be strong late.
Selections:
(1) Tempted
(7) Panova
(3) Ole Dancer
(4) Savvy Hallie
Suggested Bet: Tempted WIN
Race 8
Wow, what a breathtaking first-up win by (8) Autumn Glow – she’s thrown out her flat spot and added a sharp turn of speed to her arsenal. She’s the best we have. Her knocks Saturday are the inside draw and her price, she’ll likely lead though and should get favours.
I think (2) Sir Delius is the only horse that can beat her, he’s had the same trial prep leading into this campaign as he did in the spring, loves the wet and draws to get the run of the race, off rails and off speed.
(9) Aeliana is in the mix, she handles wet and is much more suited up in trip. The query with her is the inside barrier.
(5) Soul Of Spain is next best, he’ll be hitting the line well late.
Selections:
(8) Autumn Glow
(2) Sir Delius
(9) Aeliana
(5) Soul Of Spain
Suggested Bet: Autumn Glow / Sir Delius Quinella
Race 9
A strong edition of the Liverpool City Cup.
Happy to side with the last start Gold Coast winner (9) Axius, the wet track brings her right into this race. She has race fitness on her side, maps ideally and had a lively recent tick-over trial.
(6) Media World loves to sprint well fresh, he’s again trialled up well but is somewhat unknown on a soft 7+.
(5) Willaidow maps ideally from barrier 7 coming off a huge career peak first-up, handles wet but needs to hold that form now.
(2) Militarize is a hard horse to catch, he doesn’t have that killer instinct but does enjoy 1300m fresh and the wet track. Gate 1 may be his kryptonite.
(7) King Of Roseau is next best.
Selections:
(9) Axius
(6) Media World
(5) Willaidow
(2) Militarize
(7) King Of Roseau
Suggested Bet: Axius WIN
Race 10
Fascinating race to round out the day. Bev’s Nine comes out and runs Friday.
If we land on a Soft 6 or better it’s clearly (6) Roselyn’s Star’s race to lose on paper, career best form and has ran into two very smart gallopers in his past two starts.
Worse than a 6 (12) Mal Coupe goes on top, dominant fresh win and can find 1–2L now getting on his preferred wet deck. James sticks which is key.
(3) Well Timed goes in the mix, sticky inside draw but has a smart fresh record and does enjoy the wet.
(1) Cloudland has to come into the race, big weight, yes, but loves a first-up assignment. The wet track is the big tick.
Selections:
(6) Roselyn’s Star
(12) Mal Coupe
(3) Well Timed
(1) Cloudland
Suggested Bet: No Bet YET
