Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 2 (8) Perfect Justice
- Next Best: Race 9 (12) Midnight Dynamite
- Best Value: Race 5 (1) Bravissima
Turf Talk
- Looking at a Soft 6 track with the potential of improvement given there is a low chance of rain in the back end of the week.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +6m 1000m to winning post and +5m the remainder.
- Expect an even spread of the track will be used in the straight as it was at the previous meeting, but there was a slight advantage for runners who settled on speed in similar conditions, so expect the same again.
Stats that matter
- Nash Rawiller continues to be profitable to follow at this time of year for punters. He has ridden 22 winners from his last 100 rides, returning a POT of +21.8%. He also boasts a POT of +11.3% at this track alone.
- Ciaron Maher’s stable is in super form considering the size of the operation. His team has produced 23 winners from its previous 100 starters, returning a healthy POT of +35.8%. They look likely to have seven chances saddle up at this meeting.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Exit Fee was good last start in a very similar race to this when running into the placings. He is fitter again now and looks much better suited at the 1200m trip, so expect he will again be hitting the line strongly and hard to hold out.
(4) Chains Of Love was an impressive winner to kick off this prep at Scone before running midfield in a stronger race last time. She looks progressive and well suited in this grade but may need luck early for the right run from a wide barrier.
(8) Too Hot To Torque is in super form having won two in a row and comes to the city to tackle a stronger challenge. Hard to knock winning form but the wide barrier could make it tough early.
(13) Storm Merchant is another runner who is drawn out wide, but he does possess good early speed and will have a light weight on his back, so if he can get out quickly and cross, he may get every chance.
Selections:
(1) Exit Fee
(4) Chains Of Love
(8) Too Hot To Torque
(13) Storm Merchant
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(8) Perfect Justice was a long way back last start but was strong to the line again when running the fastest last 600m of the race. He is at peak fitness third-up and suited rising to the 1600m trip, so looks set up to improve again and breakthrough for a win.
There may not be a great deal of speed in the race which will give (6) Hereward the opportunity to take up the lead and, with a light weight, if he can go forwards and control the tempo he could prove tough to catch.
(19) Autumn Blonde found winning form last start and now steps up in level. She can get a soft run from barrier one and has confidence now, so should be around the mark.
(10) Forecaster ran into the placings in a similar race last start. He rises in distance and has a good record at this trip, so looks capable of finding improvement.
Selections:
(8) Perfect Justice
(6) Hereward
(19) Autumn Blonde
(10) Forecaster
Suggested Bet: (8) Perfect Justice – Win
Race 3
(5) Bird Whistle won well at Scone two starts ago before running a close second last start in a similar race to this. She drops slightly in grade and getting onto an improving track from last start could help her get back to winning form.
(4) Nitro was solid when first-up into the prep but had no luck last start when caught back and wide. Despite the tough run, he was strong to the line so looks better suited up in distance today, which should give him every chance to run on again.
(9) Celebrity resumes from a spell. He was undefeated in his debut campaign and has looked solid in recent trials, so expecting he could again fire fresh.
(13) Lipstick steps up in grade after hitting the line strongly last start. She has a light weight on her back here, so look for her to be strong to the line again and she may surprise.
Selections:
(5) Bird Whistle
(4) Nitro
(9) Celebrity
(13) Lipstick
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(1) Hello Captain has been impossible to knock this preparation, remaining unbeaten through three starts. He was an easy winner last start when down in grade but continues to look progressive and should be hard to beat again, particularly from barrier one where he maps to get every chance.
(7) Front Rank looks the likely leader in a race that may not have a great deal of early speed. If he can control proceedings up front, he could prove difficult to run down.
(3) Pimlico kicked off this campaign with two nice wins before a moderate effort last start. He may not have handled the Heavy track and is worth forgiving on that basis, with conditions here likely to suit much better.
(12) Crimson Wings resumes. She has won first-up previously and comes into this with two solid trials. With a light weight, she is capable of producing a strong fresh performance.
Selections:
(1) Hello Captain
(7) Front Rank
(3) Pimlico
(12) Crimson Wings
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Bravissima finally found improvement at her latest start when getting to a suitable distance third-up and hitting the line strongly. She looks ideally suited rising to 1800m and if she gets a similar run in transit, should be hard to hold out late.
(3) Shangri La Impact won well two starts ago before finishing midfield last time. She was well supported and performed below expectations, so happy to forgive that effort and expect a bounce back.
(5) Nasebah impressed when winning first-up and then didn’t get the ideal run from the inside barrier last start. Despite that she still hit the line well and looks suited returning to 1800m.
(8) Horizons looks ready for a staying trip now third-up into the preparation and should get every chance from barrier one.
Selections:
(1) Bravissima
(3) Shangri La Impact
(5) Nasebah
(8) Horizons
Suggested Bet: (1) Bravissima – Each Way
Race 6
(9) Tazima is in strong form having won two of his past three starts and again sets up as the runner to beat. He comes back from 2000m to 1800m but has a strong record at the trip and a genuine tempo should suit.
(8) Tavros has won his past two starts and arrives at this stronger race with confidence. The wide barrier makes things tricky but he should be strong late if able to find cover.
(14) Sounds Unusual showed good improvement when winning over this distance last start. He rises in grade but remains at the right trip and maps to get a favourable run.
(12) Sir Dinadan carried a significant weight last start and may have found that too much. Conditions look more suitable here and he can improve sharply.
Selections:
(9) Tazima
(8) Tavros
(14) Sounds Unusual
(12) Sir Dinadan
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(2) Ice Kool was an easy winner when resuming here a fortnight ago. He remains at a similar level and only rises slightly in weight. The manner of that victory suggests he will be hard to beat again.
(3) Big Red Tequila finished second behind the favourite at her latest start. She needs to improve to reverse the result but does get a weight swing and is fitter second-up.
(5) Polyglot resumes. He has previously performed well fresh and comes into this off two recent trials. The wide draw means he may need luck early.
(14) Satin Stiletto is another resuming runner. She has won first-up previously and has the early speed to take up a prominent position.
Selections:
(2) Ice Kool
(3) Big Red Tequila
(5) Polyglot
(14) Satin Stiletto
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(7) Sunshineinmypocket was an impressive winner on the Gold Coast last start. He again maps to get an ideal run, has an excellent record at the distance and looks progressive enough to measure up in this grade.
(16) Amazing Eagle rises in class but benefits from a light weight. He maps well from barrier four and could prove hard to hold out if able to settle comfortably.
(12) Eye Of The Fire resumes with an excellent first-up record of four starts for three wins. Two recent trials suggest he is ready to fire fresh.
(2) Bustling has shown ability throughout his career and has been building towards a peak run this preparation. Back in grade and third-up, he can improve sharply.
Selections:
(7) Sunshineinmypocket
(16) Amazing Eagle
(12) Eye Of The Fire
(2) Bustling
Suggested Bet: (7) Sunshineinmypocket – Win
Race 9
(12) Midnight Dynamite has been in excellent form this preparation, including a second placing in a similar race last start. He endured a tough run from a wide barrier but was still strong through the line and with a softer map here, looks capable of going one better.
(4) Zabiari makes his Australian debut as a European import. He has performed well fresh previously and comes into this with three trials under his belt.
(8) Cool Jakey was an impressive winner last time out. He meets a similar field but the wide barrier makes things more difficult.
(3) General Salute was heavily supported when resuming and ran a close second in similar grade. He is fitter second-up and suited rising in distance.
Selections:
(12) Midnight Dynamite
(4) Zabiari
(8) Cool Jakey
(3) General Salute
Suggested Bet: (12) Midnight Dynamite – Win
Race 10
(1) Glorious Moments kicked off the preparation with a win here before stepping up in distance and running midfield after covering extra ground throughout. With a stronger tempo expected here, he may be able to find cover and improve.
(9) Supermassive is racing well but again has drawn wide. He has the speed to settle prominently but will need the race to unfold favourably.
(2) Hezdarnhottoo performed well when returning to New South Wales last week. This race maps similarly and he should get every chance from barrier two.
(10) Cold Brew was fair when resuming and may appreciate getting onto better ground. Fitter second-up, he can improve.
Selections:
(1) Glorious Moments
(9) Supermassive
(2) Hezdarnhottoo
(10) Cold Brew
Suggested Bet: No bet
