Summary Of Best Bets
Best Bet: R4 (6) Tarzing
Next Best: R9 (14) Sanctified
Best Value: R3 (6) All The Way Mae
Best Roughie: R5 (2) Flying Embers
Turf Talk
- The track condition has been improving through the week and is currently a Good 4, but there are some showers around Thursday and overcast conditions forecast, so expecting a Soft 5 come race day if the forecast holds.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be +6m the entire.
- In similar conditions recently, the track has played fairly, with runners getting a good chance to win from a variety of positions. But with that rail pushing out again slightly, it may be a slight advantage to runners no worse than midfield in run.
Stats That Matter
- Apprentice Jai Williams made the most of his last trip to Rosehill and still holds strong form, with 24 winners from his last 100 rides and a POT of +43.7%. He comes here with two rides.
- Anna Roper is booked for a full card of rides, but her recent form has been tough with two winners from her last 100 rides and a POT of -65.5%. She does have a slightly positive POT return here at Rosehill, so gets her chance to find form.
- Ciaron Maher’s stable continues strong form, which is impressive for a large team, with 20 winners from his last 100 runners and an impressive POT of +29.4%. Mitch Beer and George Carpenter are also building into good form with 23 winners from their last 100 starters for a POT of +7.8%.
Race 1
(1) Mafia is in good form having won a similar race two starts ago and produced a strong effort last time for 2nd at Canterbury, so he rates highly and sets up for run of the race on speed from a low barrier. He looks the one to catch here. (2) Cold Brew looks the other key speed influence of the race but will have to come from a wide barrier. He made a solid return two weeks ago off a long spell, so sets up better now he is fitter 2nd up. A solid speed could set up (5) Cape Byron for a nice run from barrier 6. He is 2nd up today and has won two of four starts at this point of previous preps. He gets a handy 3kg claim, so should be strong late. (4) Presides comes to a stronger race here, but his recent form is strong with two wins this prep, so is in strong enough form to perform well at this level.
(1) Mafia
(2) Cold Brew
(5) Cape Byron
(4) Presides
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Looks a tough race to map out with most of the major chances drawn out wide. (6) Portofino is one of those, but he does have some handy speed so gets a chance to cross and find a good position. He brings strong form into the race with two wins this prep, so if he gets the right run, he could prove hard to beat. (7) Red Rags To Bulls is the runner who sets up to be swooping over the top of rivals. She is a get-back-and-run-on type, so with a light weight she should be strong late. (4) Hammoon Sensation has placed in his last two starts in similar races, so should be around the mark again but has to use his early speed to navigate a wide run. (12) Saintly Sands has won two in a row and brings good form to this stronger race. If she holds her level, she can go well here.
(6) Portofino
(7) Red Rags To Bulls
(4) Hammon Sensation
(12) Saintly Sands
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(6) All The Way Mae has been rising through her grades and brings in strong form to this off the back of two wins in a row, with her last win coming in a similar level race. She jumps from a low barrier and can settle in a nice position, so it is hard to not give her a chance in this race given her set-up. (7) Jarrito won well at Randwick to kick off this prep. She steps up in level for this but can race forward and be prominent, so can go close again, especially if she finds improvement from her 1st-up run. (1) Stormland resumes, he found consistent form last prep and has a good 1st-up record, so can fire fresh and comes into this with two trials under his belt. (3) Benevac has a wide barrier but can potentially cross and look to lead with his early speed. He has placed in his last two runs and looks close to a win.
(6) All The Way Mae
(7) Jarrito
(1) Stormland
(3) Benevac
Suggested Bet: (6) All The Way Mae – Eachway
Race 4
(6) Tarzing was well supported when resuming but didn’t get a clear run at a critical stage. Once clear, he ran some of the fastest closing sectionals of the meeting. He sets up similarly but is fitter 2nd up now, so can again figure and will be harder to hold out with more even luck. (5) Big Papa was a big winner in his last start here at Rosehill. This is a slight drop in grade and he looks ready for the rise in distance 3rd up, but would be more confident if he had drawn a better barrier. (3) Cherish Me had been mixing form in Victoria but got a breakthrough win in her last start. That was a hot race and while this is a step up again, she should have confidence now and gets an ideal run from a low barrier. (17) Maybe Moet drops in grade and looks suited now rising to the 1400m trip, having hit the line well in her last couple of starts. She should be hitting the line strongly if she doesn’t run into traffic from the inside barrier.
(6) Tarzing
(5) Big Papa
(3) Cherish Me
(17) Maybe Moet
Suggested Bet: (6) Tarzing – Win
Race 5
(2) Flying Embers was doing her best work late in her last start when hitting the line strongly to run a close 3rd. That was a similar level of race to what she gets into here today and she sets up well getting down at the weights thanks to a claim from William Stanley, who has a super record aboard her (4:3-1-0). (1) Surf’s Up had the writing on the wall she was due a win last start having been in consistent form of late. She sets up similarly here today and will be the one to beat again if she gets a clear run from barrier 1, as she may be back in the pack in the early stages. (9) Bella Corazon comes into this race as a last-start winner. She hit the line strongly last time and gets in light at the weights here, so expecting that again will set her up well for the 1400m. (3) Make It Sweet comes to NSW with handy form lines. She ran a close 2nd behind a handy runner last start and was contesting stronger races previously. She also has a consistent record at the 1400m trip.
(2) Flying Embers
(1) Surf’s Up
(9) Bella Corazon
(3) Make It Sweet
Suggested Bet: (2) Flying Embers – Eachway
Race 6
(2) Black Run went close to defeating a handy type in his last start and remains in an ideal set-up for this. He has a strong record at the 2400m trip and looks the likely leader of the race. If he is given a soft run out in front he could prove tough to catch. (9) King Pedro has run 2nd in his last couple of starts and with more luck could have won either of those. Hitting the line strongly, he looks ideally suited rising to the 2400m trip now so gets every chance. (4) Pinhole is a last-start winner at this track and distance and rises in grade today. He gets his ideal conditions, which should see him be a strong chance again despite it being a harder race. (14) So Suave gets in very light at the weights for this. He ran well in a similar race last start but with the weight swing in his favour today, he gets a chance to go one better and will be strong late.
(2) Black Run
(9) King Pedro
(4) Pinhole
(14) So Suave
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(8) Perfect Play has been around the mark in recent runs, but this looks a race better set up for him. He appears suited dropping back to the 1800m trip with a softer race map than some key rivals and drops 1.5kg thanks to a claim, giving him his chance in a race of this level. (9) Hovland is a last-start winner and rises in level for this today. He hit the line well last time and now rises in distance where he has won previously. He gets every chance in this set-up. (15) Congressman ran 4th in a Group race last start and drops back in grade here today. This is easier and he can potentially take up the lead, which may suit. (10) Sacrify appeared not to handle the wet conditions in his last start, so gets a better surface today which should see him bounce back. He also looks likely to land in a handy position jumping from barrier 2.
(8) Perfect Play
(9) Hovland
(15) Congressman
(10) Sacrify
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(6) Zaphod has run within a length of the winner at his last two starts, both in similar Listed races. He gets his chance to improve today with a favourable set-up from barrier 1, which should allow him to enjoy the soft run while remaining well in at the weights. (4) God’s Window was good late when running 2nd at his last start and now steps up in distance to tackle this stronger race. His best form is good enough, but it will be a solid test. (1) Golden Path returns to NSW after contesting stronger races during the Queensland Carnival. He gets back to the 2000m trip where he has a good record and can settle in a strong position near the leaders. (2) Know Thyself looks to have been building towards a trip like this and is now at peak fitness for the 2000m. He has endured some tough runs at his previous two starts but gets a better set-up here to help him see out the trip strongly.
(6) Zaphod
(4) God’s Window
(1) Golden Path
(2) Know Thyself
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(14) Sanctified is in strong form this prep having not missed the top three in his four runs this time in work, including a win two starts back when defeating the talented Supermassive. He backed that run up with another solid performance here last start, where the wide barrier may have told late. He now looks well suited jumping from a low barrier and dropping back to the 1200m trip. (15) Exit Fee is another who has been consistent recently and will be suited remaining at this distance. He goes well in this set-up and any sting out of the ground will suit. (16) Stagnum resumes and can fire fresh, having won two of his three previous first-up runs. He should be in good order following two recent trials. (6) Stardeel kicked off this prep with a nice win at this track and distance. She is undefeated here and can improve second-up, but confidence is slightly lowered due to the wide barrier, which means she will need some luck early.
(14) Sanctified
(15) Exit Fee
(16) Stagnum
(6) Stardeel
Suggested Bet: (14) Sanctified – Win
Race 10
(10) Mr Chaplin looks likely to get the run of the race from barrier 3. He has early speed, so can find the front and give them something to chase. He takes on a stronger challenge today but comes in fitter second-up, giving him scope to improve. (2) Hollywood Hero was doing his best work late last start. He rises in distance and is fitter now, which should suit, and look for him to be hitting the line strongly. (15) Yam has been in strong form in the southern states and tackles a stronger race today, but he does get a favourable set-up jumping from barrier 4. After a 3kg claim he comes in very light at the weights. (9) Mawjood has been in consistent form recently in races that set up similarly to this. He also goes well at Rosehill, so is expected to run another good race, although the wide barrier makes the task tougher.
(10) Mr Chaplin
(2) Hollywood Hero
(15) Yam
(9) Mawjood
Suggested Bet: No bet
