Track
- Expecting a Heavy rated track given there is rain forecast prior to Saturday. Conditions should be clear on race day, but expecting wet conditions.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first time since mid-March.
- Expecting a fair track in these conditions, with winners able to come from a variety of positions, but it is also likely runners look to come away from the rails in the straight in the wet conditions.
Stats that matter
- Chris Waller brings another big team to this meeting and has been having strong recent success, producing 17 winners from his last 100 starters and a POT return of +32.5%.
- Alysha Collett has a full book of rides here and has been in strong form, riding 13 winners from her last 100 rides and returning a POT of +24.4%.
Race 1
(1) Tron Bolt rated highly when winning his last start by a big margin in a similar race at Randwick. If he can run up to that form, he will be hard to beat again and gets in light at the weights with an apprentice claim.
(2) Nations League has run into the placings in his last two runs, and both of those races have been strong form references. He jumps from barrier 1, so may get a chance to settle closer in the run.
(6) Iommi looks the likely leader of the race, which puts him in a strong position. He ran into the placings on debut on a wet track, so looks likely to handle the conditions.
(3) Cormier was impressive when producing a big win on debut at Scone, he is well bred and looks progressive but will need some luck to overcome a wide barrier in the early stages
Selections:
(1) Tron Bolt
(2) Nations League
(6) Iommi
(3) Cormier
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(7) Moon Sweeper ran a close second to Autumn King in their last run, but gets the advantages today that can likely see him go one better. He firstly gets a drop in the weight, which may give him an advantage late, especially given he may get a soft run from barrier 2. He has won in wet conditions previously as well, so the track conditions should be little issue.
(12) Red Rags To Bulls was hitting the line strongly last start and can figure again in more suitable conditions. She has won two from two over this 1500m distance.
(6) Hammoon Sensation can use speed and settle in a forward position from barrier 1. He tired in the run last start, so with a better barrier and a drop in distance he can improve.
(15) Brutal Belle brings different form into this race as a last start winner when making it two in a row. She should appreciate a wet track and rising in distance.
Selections:
(7) Moon Sweeper
(12) Red Rags To Bulls
(6) Hammoon Sensation
(15) Brutal Belle
Suggested Bet: (7) Moon Sweeper – Win
Race 3
(11) Gorgeous looks the main danger, having run within 2L of the winner in a Listed race last time. She is down in grade, so sets up well, but won’t want to get shuffled back too far in the run.
(1) Cold Brew can run a race at a decent price. He resumes today and has performed well first-up previously, has good early speed, can settle forward in the run and has won on a wet track previously.
(7) Sir Les comes to town to contest a stronger race having been undefeated in his two runs so far. This is a step up, but he is in flying form.
(14) All The Way Mae is at peak fitness 3rd up and gets in light at the weights rising in grade today. She has won in heavy conditions previously so is expected to handle the conditions.
Selections:
(11) Gorgeous
(1) Cold Brew
(7) Sir Les
(14) All The Way Mae
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(14) Shangri La Impact is in super form, having won two of her three starts this prep. She boasts a strong record on a Heavy rated track (3:2-1-0) and has the speed to push forward and settle in a strong position. She can run a race at a decent price in these conditions.
(7) Sounds Unusual is 3rd up and rising in distance which could see him find his best form, he has run well when at this point of a prep (3:2-1-0) so looks ready to peak.
(2) Mister Rizz maps for a positive run jumping from a low barrier. He can put the pressure on the favourite up on speed and will be fitter 2nd up into this today.
(1) Sir Dinadan was outclassed in a Listed race last start, this is a sharp drop in grade and will be much easier and he gets back to the 1800m trip which should suit, expect improvement.
Selections:
(14) Shangri La Impact
(7) Sounds Unusual
(2) Mister Rizz
(1) Sir Dinadan
Suggested Bet: (14) Shangri La Impact – Win
Race 5
(4) Island Dream was disappointing when resuming, but off that performance she potentially had an issue. Happy to forgive her and give her another chance in this set up. She is fitter now second-up and has won two from two previous second-up runs throughout her career. She has won on a Heavy track before, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue.
(15) Ertijaaj was an impressive last-start winner at Caulfield. She travelled sweetly at the top of the straight and won softly. This is harder, but she looks a progressive type and can improve.
(7) Covert Thinking resumes. She has had three solid trials leading into this and is undefeated on Heavy tracks, so conditions will suit her, which could prove to be an advantage.
(13) Change My Address didn’t get the ideal run at Scone last start but stuck on well to finish off late. Drops back to the 1500m today, a distance she was a winner over 2 starts back and has won in wet conditions.
Selections:
(4) Island Dream
(15) Ertijaaj
(7) Covert Thinking
(13) Change My Address
Suggested Bet: (4) Island Dream – Each-way
Race 6
(4) Mawjood is on the quick back-up having run into the placings last week in a similar grade. He is at peak fitness and has a consistent record in these conditions. He maps to get every chance again in a similar set-up if he holds his form.
(3) Fiddlers Green has been consistent so far this prep. He gets back to a wet track, which should suit him, and jumping from barrier 4 may put him in a good position. If he can hold his recent form, he sets up for another good run.
(2) Man Of Worth kicked off this campaign with a high-rating run and then had the second-up syndrome when racing flat last start. He looks better suited back to the 1500m trip and expecting he will bounce back to stronger form today.
(1) Cellarmaster is in consistent form having finish in the top 3 in his last 4 runs including a win. He looks suited up to the 1500m trip and expect to see him hitting the line strongly.
Selections:
(4) Mawjood
(3) Fiddlers Green
(2) Man Of Worth
(1) Cellarmaster
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(12) Big Papa is only lightly raced with four career starts so far, but he has won two of those and they were both when he was first-up. He resumes here today having finished midfield in a Group 3 level race, and kicking off back down in BenchMark grade will suit. His recent trials have been sharp, so expecting he can fire fresh if he handles the conditions.
(13) Agatha won her maiden at a short price two starts ago and then ran well in a Listed level race, so dropping back to BenchMark grade here today will be much easier. The risk is her wider barrier, so she may need luck early to get the right run.
(15) Raskol was solid when resuming and running into second. She is fitter here now second-up and will drop sharply down in weight, which should see her be much stronger at the end of the race.
(2) Madrina can settle forward, which should suit, and has previously performed well on Heavy ground, so looks ideally set up in this.
Selections:
(12) Big Papa
(13) Agatha
(15) Raskol
(2) Madrina
Suggested Bet: (12) Big Papa – Each-way
Race 8
(2) Crepe Myrtle looks to get a suitable set up today. She is third-up into the prep and rising to the 1200m. She has won twice when third-up into a prep, so is at peak fitness, and won her only other start over the 1200m. If she handles the wet conditions, she should go close.
(5) Miss Kim Kar resumes today. She usually takes a few runs to find her best form in a prep, but could surprise here at a decent price in wet conditions as she should prefer the sting out of the ground.
(13) Ernaux has been tough to catch in her career with only the one win, but maps for a soft run from barrier 2, which could land her in a strong position. The query for her chances is how she handles the wet track.
(6) Super Nui has a super record in wet conditions (4:2-1-0) so she should relish the track conditions and ran well last start with a big weight so should be better suited down in the weights slightly and fitter now.
Selections:
(2) Crepe Myrtle
(5) Miss Kim Kar
(13) Ernaux
(6) Super Nui
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(4) Zambardo looks to have found his right race to be able to recapture the strong form we saw him produce last preparation. He looks ready for the 2000m trip now third-up today and is getting onto a wet track. He has only had the one start on a Heavy rated track, but that was a career peak performance when he was second behind Via Sistina in The Champions Stakes at Flemington. If he can run up to that today, he should be hard to beat.
(20) Thebudgiesmugla waits on a run as the emergency, but if he gains a start, he looks a strong chance based off his performance last week. He rated highly when winning over the 2400m on a wet track and getting back to the 2000m at this level looks a good next step off that run.
(13) Nellie Leylax has a strong record on wet tracks and can potentially lead this field, which may suit. He remains down in the weights, so if he goes forward, he could prove tougher to catch.
(17) Zaphod ran 2nd in a similar level race to this last start, but could be capable of improving here today in wet conditions, he has a super record on heavy rated going and is at peak fitness.
Selections:
(4) Zambardo
(20) Thebudgiesmugla
(13) Nellie Lylax
(17) Zaphod
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
(9) Hay Street has been in consistent form this prep and looks suited in this set-up. He ran a big race at Scone last time behind a smart winner, and they put a decent gap on third place, so he looks suited remaining at this level and looks ready for a rise to the 1200m trip. Wet conditions should prove no issue.
(13) Applaud resumes today. He has won twice when first-up previously and is also undefeated in Heavy conditions. This set up gives him every chance for a strong first-up performance.
(18) Just Response has good speed and can potentially lead the field up and race in a strong position. He faded out in the run last start, so like him coming back to the 1200m trip.
(2) Midnight Opal was a winner two starts back, then ran midfield in a stronger race at Randwick. He should find this a drop in grade, which may bring on improvement, and the wet conditions should suit.
Selections:
(9) Hay Street
(13) Applaud
(18) Just Response
(2) Midnight Opal
Suggested Bet: (9) Hay Street – Win
