With Group 1 racing on the horizon in South Australia, Mitch Lewis has taken an early look at the futures markets. While much of the top end looks well found, there are still opportunities for punters willing to play early, particularly around runners set to improve or shorten into race day. Mitch Lewis is looking to build a book early and get himself in good position come Saturday.
Sangster Stakes
Skybird
The highest-rated runner in the field and looks the standout early play. Her run in the TJ Smith was enormous, finishing third and producing the fastest late splits of the race, including the second-fastest L400m of the entire meeting. Profiles perfectly for this and any rain would only enhance her chances. Looks likely to start shorter on race day.
Super Smink
Big run to win first-up in the Irwin Stakes where she was not ideally suited. She produced the fastest L600m and L400m of the race to win, which was a strong return given she had never won below 1200m prior. Second-up is her sweet spot and with Craig Williams booked, she shapes as a key improver who can firm in the market.
Shadhavar
A forgotten runner at odds following her win in the Matrice Stakes. That race has produced the past two Sangster winners, which adds weight to the form. The stable has opted to bypass the Irwin and bring her here fresh, which suits given she tends to perform best that way. Appeals as a genuine knockout at a price.
Aviatress
The local hope who will need to lift, but the set-up is different this time around. She comes into the race first-up rather than third-up as she did last year, and her fresh record is excellent. A recent trial win suggests she is forward enough and she is likely to attract strong local support.
Early bets:
Skybird – $6.50
Super Smink – $11
Shadhavar – $26
Aviatress – $34
Australasian Oaks
Getta Good Feeling
The horse to beat on exposed form and brings strong consistency dating back to the spring. She looks set to start favourite but from a futures perspective, there is little incentive to dive in early given her price is unlikely to shift significantly.
After Summer
Has the right form lines for this race and profiles as a major player, but similar to the favourite, her current price looks about right. Hard to see significant market movement prior to acceptances, so waiting until race day may be the smarter play.
Salty Pearl
Another with the right credentials coming through the key form races. She is well found in the market and, like others at the top, does not present obvious early value. One to monitor rather than back at current quotes.
Strictly Business
The VRC Oaks winner who has not quite recaptured her peak form this preparation. That said, her best is clearly good enough to measure up here. If she drifts into double figures, she becomes very tempting on the basis that she can improve sharply into this.
Mating Call
Won the Auraria Stakes, the traditional lead-up, and looks a key local hope. Currently at double-figure odds which may not last, especially with Jamie Melham booked to ride. Profiles to start shorter and appeals as one of the better early bets in the race.
Kazaru
An eye-catching run in the Auraria Stakes where she closed off strongly. She brings Tasmanian Oaks winning form, which has historically held up well for this race. Looks an improver stepping up in trip, though her current price is about as short as you would want pre-race.
