Mitchy’s Sunday Sale Set: Best bets and a value play

Summary of Best Bets

Best Bet: Race 7 (4) Zorro’s Flight
Next Best: Race 4 (2) Bemm River
Best Value: Race 8 (4) Dollar Shot

Turf Talk

• The track is rated a Soft 7 at the time of writing. Clear weather is forecast, but with cool temperatures expected, there is only a small chance of an upgrade.
• The rail returns to the True position for the first time since early June.
• A strong leaders’ bias is not expected, although runners settling forward of midfield generally hold a slight advantage at Sale.

Stats that matter

• Jye McNeil is riding in consistent form, recording 16 winners from his past 100 rides and returning a profit on turnover of +13.3%.
• Clint McDonald’s stable is enjoying a strong run, with 24 winners from its past 100 runners and a POT of +23.2%. The stable also boasts an excellent record at Sale, striking at 20.4% with a POT of +21%.

Race 4

(2) Bemm River showed improvement last start when finishing a close second. He put nearly two lengths on the third-placed runner, suggesting he is capable of breaking through in a similar race. He maps well again and should receive every opportunity.

(7) Watten Assett resumes after finishing second at each of his final three runs before a spell. He looks capable in this grade but will need some early luck from a wide barrier.

(5) Prestige Star makes his debut after trialling well recently. He has attracted strong market support and appears capable of producing a competitive first-up performance.

(8) Winsilence finished in the placings last start in a race of a similar standard. The slight rise in distance should suit, although he will also need the right luck early from a wide barrier.

Selections

(2) Bemm River
(7) Watten Assett
(5) Prestige Star
(8) Winsilence

Suggested Bet: (2) Bemm River – Win

Race 5

(4) Dollar Shot is a consistent galloper who could improve dropping back in grade from the races he has contested recently. He handles wet conditions, while all of his career wins and placings have come over 1200m, so this set-up gives him an excellent opportunity.

(2) Humza Bey was a strong winner when resuming at Sandown. He should be fitter for that performance and looks a progressive runner, although the risk is that he can settle back in the field. With clear running, he should prove hard to hold out.

(1) Come Along Jeffrey rises in grade after a consistent run of performances, including two recent wins. He can settle in a prominent position, which should suit around Sale.

(6) Untapped was a winner when resuming and has winning form when 2nd up, he can handle all conditions so can be capable of improving and winning again

Selections

(4) Dollar Shot
(2) Humza Bey
(1) Come Along Jeffrey
(6) Untapped

Suggested Bet: (4) Dollar Shot – Win

Race 7

(4) Zorro’s Flight comes into this at peak fitness and in strong form, having finished in the top two at all three runs this preparation. He can handle a range of conditions and is undefeated from two previous starts at Sale, giving him an ideal set-up to prove hard to beat again.

(3) Yamato Satona is worth watching closely on his Australian debut. He has raced competitively in stronger company in New Zealand, although most of that form has come over further. He may improve deeper into the preparation but should still run well fresh.

(2) Nearing Liberty has produced mixed form this preparation but drops in grade, which should help him find a level of improvement.

(1) Rasp has had a gap between runs, but his recent form has been strong. While his best performances lately have come over longer distances, he has won twice over 1200m and would not surprise.

Selections

(4) Zorro’s Flight
(3) Yamato Satona
(2) Nearing Liberty
(1) Rasp

Suggested Bet: (4) Zorro’s Flight – Win