Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 3 Backing both (2) Xarpo and (5) Em Sixty
Next best: Race 8 No.8 Pula
Race 1 – Two-Year-Old Maiden
Unraced juveniles aren’t really my forte, so take this with a grain of salt.
(3) Buggsy has shown good promise in his trials for a yard that consistently outperforms market expectations with first starters.
(4) Dirty Harry was well-supported on debut and can improve sharply with that experience.
(13) On A Journey has looked smart at the jumpouts, though Henry Dwyer isn’t renowned for his expertise with two-year-olds.
(9) Brookelinda also trialled nicely, but the Freedman stable has been underdelivering relative to the market with debut runners over a three-year sample.
Selections:
(3) Buggsy
(4) Dirty Harry
(13) On A Journey
(9) Brookelinda
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2 – Staying Handicap
(7) High Heeled won in farcical time last start but ran to a new career peak resuming. Joanne Mugavin is in unprecedented form at the moment and may have improved this mare.
(1) Stern Idol hasn’t raced often on the flat, but when he has, he’s been excellent and should roll forward.
(2) Suffolk Star strips fitter second-up and saves his best for 3000 metres and beyond.
(4) Balinor leaps from 2000 to 3000 metres after two solid runs this prep; he’s proven over the trip and could surprise.
Selections:
(7) High Heeled
(1) Stern Idol
(2) Suffolk Star
(4) Balinor
Suggested Bet: Small win bet High Heeled (7)
Race 3 – Benchmark 70 Handicap (1400m)
(2) Xarpo ran to her peak first-up, winning with authority after being heavily supported. She’ll only improve over 1400 metres.
(5) Em Sixty, who posted an enormous figure at Flemington before a spell, might be better suited over further than this in time, but is simply too talented to leave out.
(1) Test Of Love is unbeaten in two since arriving from Hong Kong, but needs to improve again to challenge Xarpo.
(3) Everain continues to make a case for himself, even if he still looks under the odds.
Selections:
(2) Xarpo
(5) Em Sixty
(1) Test Of Love
(3) Everain
Suggested Bet: Win bet Xarpo (2) and win bet Em Sixty (5) (Best Bet)
Race 4 – Maiden Plate
(10) Dirty Look found the line stylishly on debut in a strong race.
(3) Ten Warriors must be due a breakthrough. He’s been racing so well for so long without winning.
(4) Cavalry Scout debuted well and has trialled up nicely since, though I wouldn’t make him favourite.
(9) Windhowler has jumped out sharply for an astute yard and gets Jamie Melham.
Selections:
(10) Dirty Look
(3) Ten Warriors
(4) Cavalry Scout
(9) Windhowler
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5 – Fillies & Mares BM64
(7) Gold Coast Belle sat wide in a race that was slowly run at Seymour, putting them away with authority. Her late splits were strong, suggesting improvement is imminent over 1400m.
(1) Miss Revealing has the right form lines through Sheza Alibi and looked sharp in a recent trial.
(4) Beautifully posted solid figures in Maiden grade and may be over the odds here.
(3) Paltrow Miss, last seen winning in New Zealand, has joined an astute yard and trialled well.
Selections:
(7) Gold Coast Belle
(1) Miss Revealing
(3) Paltrow Miss
(4) Beautifully
Suggested Bet: Win bet Gold Coast Belle (7)
Race 6 – Open Handicap
(8) Zakouma ran close to his peak first-up, sprinting clear in slick time. Barrier 16 is trouble, but he remains a strong favourite.
(3) Pantile Warrior disappointed on Australian debut despite market support, but expect marked improvement.
Selections:
(8) Zakouma
(3) Pantile Warrior
Suggested Bet: Win bet Zakouma (8)
Race 7 – 1800m Handicap
(1) Brave Danza has twice chased the classy Different Gravy and resumes here over 1800m. The trip first-up is a worry, though Cumani has a tremendous record with horses first-up and is significantly exceeding market expectations.
(12) Russian Duchess was second to the aforementioned Zakouma in a race that rated highly.
(8) Bertrand raced against older company last start and measured up well.
(2) Roulette King was terrific fresh but must defy 60kg.
Don’t ignore (10) I Belong at big odds.
Selections:
(1) Brave Danza
(12) Russian Duchess
(8) Bertrand
(2) Roulette King
Suggested Bet: Win bet Brave Danza (1) and smaller win bet Russian Duchess (12)
Race 8 – Fillies & Mares Handicap
(8) Pula endured a tough run at Caulfield last time and looks well placed to improve third-up with Craig Williams aboard. Her ratings are more than strong enough to win this.
(1) Chiringita ran below expectations on local debut but could improve dramatically.
(3) Champagne Jenni produced a strong figure fresh for her new stable and has always hinted at good ability.
(2) This Time Girl made a sound local debut.
Selections:
(8) Pula
(1) Chiringita
(3) Champagne Jenni
(2) This Time Girl
Suggested Bet: Win bet Pula (8)
