Summary of Best Bets:
Best bet: Race 4 No.5 Terilee
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Hydrobomb has shown ability in his jump-outs and can make a pleasing debut. (3) Optimus has also turned heads at the jump-outs and is expected to make a good first impression. I’m not entirely convinced by the strength of (4) Leopard Shark’s form and find him an easy favourite to oppose. (6) Tuzemak was second in a slowly run race at Pakenham last start. He hasn’t set an especially high bar for the debutants, but he can improve stepping to 1300 metres.
Selections:
(2) Hydrobomb
(3) Optimus
(4) Leopard Shark
(6) Tuzemak
Race 2:
(6) Shoma is yet to win in ten attempts but was placed most recently in the Avondale Guineas. He has been gelded since arriving in Australia and has trialled well twice, suggesting he’s returned in good order. (5) Melian made an encouraging debut behind Arlington Row, who was simply too good. The rise to 1300 metres should suit. (9) Wentworth Falls was well held by Observer prior to a spell, but that’s no knock. He has since been gelded and has trialled well. (7) Sparkling Luck finished strongly into second at Pakenham. He can improve again and is aided by Damian Lane, but he is currently under his true price.
Selections:
(6) Shoma
(5) Melian
(9) Wentworth Falls
(7) Sparkling Luck
Race 3:
(10) Russian Choice gave Butternut Princess a race last start, and she was runner-up in the Mannerism Stakes at Caulfield on the weekend. She races on speed and has been racing to a good level of form. (4) Bel Mezyann was outpaced over five furlongs on debut but improved sharply over six last start. The way he sustained his gallop over the last 200 metres suggests 1500 metres will suit. While I can’t have him quite as short as the market does, he is clearly appealing. (11) Cushioned is a talented filly who has been beaten in two farcically run maidens. She is an Oaks filly, and I expect we’ll see her in South Australia or New South Wales later in the autumn. (7) Muskito produced a strong rating on debut and has upside.
Selections:
(10) Russian Choice
(4) Bel Mezyann
(11) Cushioned
(7) Muskito
Race 4:
(5) Terilee has rarely been afforded the opportunity to show her best. With just six starts to her name, she still gives the impression there is considerable improvement to come. From a handy barrier she can settle prominently and out-sprint her opposition late. (7) Flowerdale won well first-up and shapes as the main danger. (4) All Business was excellent at Caulfield on Super Bowl Monday, but dropping back to seven furlongs from a mile is a query. (6) Brutalina looks set to peak fourth-up with Melham engaged.
Selections:
(5) Terilee
(7) Flowerdale
(4) All Business
(6) Brutalina
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Terilee
Race 5:
(3) Bluestone’s ratings comfortably measure up in this field. Punters have historically lost heavily backing Mick Kent runners second-up, though the stable has an excellent record with stayers. He made a tremendous return at Flemington, but I’d prefer to watch rather than part ways with mine. (5) Trapalanda has been racing well without winning. (1) Urban Outlook won a farcically run race at Cranbourne but did so with authority, comfortably accounting for American Wolf. (2) American Wolf is a St Leger winner who stays strongly, though he can be vulnerable to better mile and a half horses.
Selections:
(3) Bluestone
(5) Trapalanda
(1) Urban Outlook
(2) American Wolf
Race 6:
(8) Trapdoor has impressed in two starts and was heavily supported on both occasions. The Hawks yard isn’t always one I find often, but this is a very talented three-year-old who will contest better races in time. (7) Enamorada was disappointing at her first run for Ciaron Maher but may have excuses after covering ground throughout. She can quickly return to the level she showed for Gavin Bedggood and should improve off that effort. (9) Blue Hawaiian ran to a strong figure beating Royal Rendezvous at Pakenham, matching her peak on resumption. She can build on that. (10) Savitri will need to improve to justify her price, but as a lightly raced filly she can quickly progress.
Selections:
(8) Trapdoor
(7) Enamorada
(9) Blue Hawaiian
(10) Savitri
Race 7:
(5) Test Of Love was well supported and won first-up in Australia after an unsuccessful stint in Hong Kong. He can improve second-up and beat this field. (3) Hedonist went too fast at Caulfield under the stable’s apprentice. With Jamie Mott aboard he should control the speed. He can win, but at the prices I lean to Test Of Love. (6) Winsome Star ran close to his peak, but his get-back pattern makes him highly reliant on pace and luck. I couldn’t entertain the current price and will be content if he beats me. (9) Kaazi has posted strong ratings in just four starts and looks like a horse for the future. Seven furlongs isn’t ideal, but he remains an intriguing runner.
Selections:
(5) Test Of Love
(3) Hedonist
(6) Winsome Star
(9) Kaazi
Race 8:
(3) Savisanta broke through impressively at Sale at deep odds-on and showed last preparation that he has talent. He can settle on speed and has previously run to a level good enough to win a race of this quality. (1) Bring Forth had little hope first-up after a poor ride. He can improve sharply and double-figure odds may underestimate him. (2) Figlio D’Argento has been excellent this campaign, though I question whether there is any improvement left in him, particularly under 62kg. (9) Understudy is enigmatic but capable of producing a strong rating when things fall his way.
Selections:
(3) Savisanta
(1) Bring Forth
(2) Figlio D’Argento
(9) Understudy
