Bet Legends bookmaker Shaun Beirne believes two of Saturday’s headline favourites could be vulnerable, with the bookie keen to take on both Tentyris at Flemington and Autumn Boy at Randwick.
Beirne’s ratings respect the talent of both runners, but he says the market – particularly with the influence of World Pool money – may push them into under-the-odds territory.
Flemington – Race 9: Tentyris
Beirne believes Tentyris could become the poster child for punter frustration with the World Pool comes Saturday afternoon.
While the horse’s talent is unquestioned, the Bet Legends bookmaker says the weight conditions and the rating required to win make the current market difficult to justify.
“Tentyris might end up being the poster child for the World Pool debate come Sunday,” Beirne said.
“I can easily envisage the World Pool starting odds-on, but I can equally envisage every bookmaker in the country wanting to be against.”
“If he’s not already classed as a champion, he will be tomorrow if he wins – because the rating required here is off the Richter scale.”
Beirne says his ratings system simply cannot get Tentyris anywhere near the current price.
“My computer has given him every possible point it can and I still can’t get him to the current $2.25-$2.30.”
Weight is another key factor in his thinking.
“I noted during the week that backing horses carrying 57kg or more since 2000 has actually been profitable. But doing it as a three-year-old while giving weight to quality older horses is exceptionally difficult.”
“We’ll just have to lay him.”
Bet Legends are currently offering a $5 special for Tentyris to win by 1 length or more (max stake $25), a market Beirne says may even be pushed further depending on late market moves.
Randwick – Race 8: Autumn Boy
At Randwick, Beirne expects strong support for the Chris Waller-trained Autumn Boy, but again believes the market may be getting carried away.
“He was impressive without winning first-up,” Beirne said.
“But there’s no ratings edge at all – in fact I can mount a case that Ninja should actually be shorter.”
Beirne expects the market to be shaped by big-name connections and World Pool money.
“They’ll back the other two around him as well, but the tote will be strong.”
“Chris Waller and James McDonald will be very appealing to World Pool players.”
Despite that likely support, Bet Legends are comfortable taking the horse on.
“We won’t have to chase the price,” Beirne said.
“There’ll be plenty of money for him and we’ll be very happy to lay.”
