No matter what day of the week it is, Shaun Beirne is keen to take punters on.
That’s the approach of Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne, who has highlighted two runners on Wednesday’s cards at Warwick Farm and Caulfield that he believes are trading shorter than their ratings justify.
Beirne’s approach focuses on identifying horses whose current prices assume improvement that has not yet been demonstrated on the clock.
Here are the runners he believes punters should be wary of.
Warwick Farm – Race 6: Suit Of Armour
The Chris Waller-trained Suit Of Armour is expected to appreciate stepping out to 2100 metres third-up, but Beirne believes the market may be overstating the edge that brings.
While acknowledging the horse’s profile suggests improvement is likely, he says the overall shape of the race is far more competitive than the betting indicates.
“There’s no doubt he profiles as a horse who improves out to 2100 metres third-up,” Beirne said.
“But the race itself is much more even than the market suggests. On my ratings there are five or six runners that land very close to him.”
That depth of chances means the favourite may simply be under the odds.
“When you weigh up the positives for him against the positives for so many others in the race, the price just looks too short. It’s a race where I’d be looking to oppose him.”
Caulfield – Race 5: Bold Strike
At Caulfield, Beirne believes Bold Strike is another runner whose current market position requires a level of improvement he is yet to demonstrate.
The gelding broke his maiden at his second career start, but has struggled to reproduce that level consistently since.
“He’s still chasing his second career win after breaking his maiden early in his career in what was only a fair rating race,” Beirne said.
“He’s likely to improve third-up, but he probably needs two lengths of improvement to justify the price. That would basically represent a new personal best.”
Beirne also pointed to the horse’s recent performance pattern relative to market expectation.
“Last start he had every chance as favourite, and if you go back through the ratings he’s now had three runs in a row – and seven of his last eight since that maiden win – that have come in below market expectation.”
For Beirne, that profile makes him difficult to support at his current odds.
“At the price, you’re being asked to assume a step forward that simply hasn’t been there in the ratings.”
The Bet Legends angle
Bet Legends are happy to take punters on. Beirne prides himself on identifying not just winners, but runners trading under the odds, and is prepared to back that judgement by offering top prices on horses he’s keen to oppose.
