The market might love them, but Shaun Beirne is more interested in finding horses he believes are under the odds than following the crowd.
This week, Beirne has zeroed in on a pair of runners at Caulfield and Canterbury that look likely to attract strong support from punters, but according to his ratings and profiling, both are worth opposing.
“There’s nothing wrong with backing good horses,” Beirne said. “The problem comes when you’re paying superstar prices for horses that simply haven’t produced superstar figures.”
At Caulfield, Beirne is happy to oppose Glenfinnan in Race 3 despite expecting plenty of market confidence.
Caulfield – Race 3: Glenfinnan
The seven-day turnaround and a forgive run last start are likely to have punters keen to jump back aboard, but Beirne believes the market may be getting carried away.
“Glenfinnan always seems to attract support,” he said.
“People see the forgive run and immediately want to dive back in, but the numbers simply don’t stack up strongly enough.”
Beirne believes the current quote significantly underrates the risks.
“I’ve got him much closer to a $5 chance than the current $3.40. That’s a fair gap and one I’m happy to take on.”
Then at Canterbury, Beirne is prepared to step in front of one of racing’s most popular combinations in Chris Waller and James McDonald with Concordia Wind.
Canterbury – Race 6: Concordia Wind
Taking on Waller and McDonald isn’t usually comfortable territory, but Beirne says sentiment and stable power can often inflate prices.
“JMac and Waller, what could possibly go wrong?” he joked.
“But sometimes those combinations become overbet simply because of who is involved.”
Beirne has concerns around the horse’s setup first-up and the likely race shape.
“First-up, I’d expect this horse to be looking for further and from that draw there’s every chance she ends up back on the rail.”
“By Race 6 at Canterbury, that’s not necessarily where you want to be.”
He also says recent trial performances don’t quite justify the level of market expectation.
“Her trial was solid enough but the figures still aren’t strong enough for me at the current price.”
Take Us On:
• Caulfield Race 3 – Glenfinnan
• Canterbury Race 6 – Concordia Wind
