Shaun Beirne is in full “take them on” mode at Hawkesbury, zeroing in on two runners he believes the market has completely overcooked.
It’s a familiar playbook from the Bet Legends leader. When hype outweighs hard data, he’s happy to step in and bet against it.
On Wednesday, that means opposing a short-priced maiden favourite and a trial star the market has latched onto, both of which he says are trading well below their true odds.
R1 – Lontrice
Beirne isn’t buying into the hype around $1.85 favourite Lontrice, despite the mare being heavily supported and expected to go around at cramped odds.
“Strip it back and it’s a pretty thin maiden, but I’m still happy to oppose” he said.
“She might’ve had excuses last start against the pattern, but even if you factor that in, her figures just don’t justify being odds-on.”
It’s not a soft lean either. Beirne is keen to take her on aggressively in the market.
“I’ll be leading the charge to get her out to black odds. She’s under the odds as it stands and I’m happy to bet around her.”
R4 – Fiorenza
Later in the card, Fiorenza is another runner attracting market interest off the back of stylish trials, but Beirne is far from convinced.
“She’s looked good to the eye in her trials, no doubt,” he said. “But when you actually break down the times, they don’t stack up anywhere near what the market is suggesting.”
And from a map perspective, he sees clear risks.
“She’s got the potential to be buried away on the fence and needing luck. From that position, at the price, I’m more than happy to be against her.”
