Bet Legends’ Shaun Beirne is back taking on the market this Saturday, with two well-supported runners at Randwick and Morphettville firmly in his sights.
Tempted has an outstanding first-up record but faces a potentially tricky set-up over 1000m at Randwick, while Beirne believes the market is asking Divergent to produce a significant new peak in Adelaide.
As always, Bet Legends is giving punters who disagree with Shaun the chance to take him on with two big specials.
Randwick Race 8 – Tempted
Tempted is three-from-three first-up and understandably heads the market, but Beirne believes Saturday’s assignment presents a very different challenge.
“She’s unbeaten first-up, but none of those wins have come over 1000m,” Beirne said.
“She’s going to get back and you’d expect her to be charging late, but I’m not convinced there’s enough speed in the race to make it easy for her over the shorter trip.”
Beirne has plenty of respect for Tempted and expects her to progress as the preparation unfolds, but believes the market has gone short enough given the race shape and bigger targets that potentially await later in the campaign.
“She deserves to be favourite, but at the price I have to be against her. There are enough dangers in the race to make her earn it.”
Marhoona and Headwall are the two obvious threats in Beirne’s book, while Beskar is the runner he believes could be over the odds.
“Beskar is the blowout. His peak rating from his third-up run last preparation would put him right in the finish here.”
Bet Legends Special: Tempted to win by 1+ lengths at $5
Morphettville Race 6 – Divergent
Divergent is another runner Beirne believes the market has priced on expected improvement rather than what she has produced to date.
“The market is assuming she takes a giant leap in her ratings here, and I’m not convinced that improvement is coming.”
While Divergent settled too far back last start, she has shown the ability to race closer to the speed previously. The issue on Saturday is barrier 11 and the tactical problem it creates.
“The map is the biggest concern. If they go forward from the wide gate, there’s a genuine risk she gets posted without cover. If they go back looking for cover, the race shape could work against her.”
For Beirne, that combination of an awkward map and a market expecting significant improvement makes Divergent a runner he is happy to oppose.
“She can obviously win, but at the current price there are enough questions for us to take her on.”
Bet Legends Special: Divergent to run 1st or 2nd at $3.50
