The final day of the is always a test of endurance for punters, bookmakers and form analysts alike. By race 28 of the Carnival, the track is chopped up, the patterns can shift quickly and market confidence can become a dangerous thing to trust.
That is exactly why Bet Legends analyst Shaun Beirne is happy to oppose a few key runners late in the program.
Beirne has identified two horses he believes are under the odds and a favourite that may continue firming in the feature.
Race 8 – Raikoke under the odds?
Beirne believes the inside draw could turn from an advantage into a major negative by the latter stages of the Carnival.
“Barrier two might look great on paper, but by race 28 of the Carnival it could easily be poison,” Beirne said.
“I just can’t get it to the current price off the ratings profile.”
With the inside likely chopped up after three days of racing and wet weather around throughout the week, Beirne expects runners getting away from the fence to hold a significant advantage late in the meeting. As a result, Beirne, and Bet Legends, will be taking Raikoke punters on.
Race 9 – Adler the one they all have to beat
In the Cup, Beirne is far more comfortable siding with the favourite than taking it on.
“To me it’s Adler’s race to lose,” he said.
Beirne noted the gelding’s heavy-track ratings stack up clearly superior to most of his rivals.
“He’s produced two peak ratings on heavy ground that are well clear of everything else, outside of maybe Casual Connection.”
That said, he is not completely dismissing Casual Connection, who produced a dramatic ratings spike the last time he encountered testing conditions.
“Casual Connection improved six lengths the last time he struck these conditions, but it’s hard to confidently rely on that happening again.”
Despite respecting Adler on top, Beirne expects the race to provide opportunities elsewhere in the market.
“There’ll be plenty of value around the favourite.”
Race 10 – ‘I’ll need a stiff drink if it wins’
The final event of the Carnival sees Beirne taking a firm stand against Icy Pole.
“Topical lay,” he joked. “Plenty will be feeling like that by this stage of the day.”
While acknowledging the horse was excellent first-up, he does not believe the current quote reflects what the ratings say is required.
“It was a really good win fresh, right near a career peak.”
“But there’s nothing in the profile that suggests it can improve another three lengths to justify the current price.”
And if the market proves him wrong?
“I’ll be needing a stiff drink if it wins.”
