Bet Legends bookmaker Shaun Beirne has identified two runners he’s happy to take on at Doomben and Kensington on Wednesday, believing both are trading shorter than their true winning chances.
Beirne says the market has been quick to forgive recent form around one Queensland runner, while a likely race shape at Kensington has him questioning another popular elect.
Kensington Race 3: Konsa
At Kensington, Beirne is prepared to oppose Konsa despite the obvious attraction of the Nash Rawiller and Chris Waller combination.
“The trainer-jockey partnership is always respected, but the map is what worries me,” he said.
“Konsa has settled in front of just four runners across his entire career. From barrier one there’s every chance he ends up buried away near the tail again.”
Beirne believes race shape could become a significant hurdle if the gelding finds himself giving away a start.
“Barrier one isn’t always an advantage. If they hold their spot and ride him differently then that’s a different conversation.”
“But based on what we’ve seen throughout his career, we’re expecting him to settle back and need luck.”
Bet Legends is prepared to be aggressive in the market against the runner.
“We’ll be the top price and if there’s no obvious change of tactics, we’ll happily keep betting around him.”
Belmont Race 8: Shimonoseki
With Doomben abandoned, Beirne’s focus shifts west where he’s prepared to oppose another well-supported runner in the last of the day.
Shimonoseki has produced improved performances since arriving in Perth, but Beirne believes the market has overreacted to those efforts.
“He’s certainly gone to another level in WA, but I still can’t get him as short as the market currently has him,” Beirne said.
The biggest concern for the Bet Legends bookmaker is race shape.
“He’s a horse that generally settles well back and this race doesn’t look like it’s going to be run at a strong tempo.”
Beirne believes that could leave Shimonoseki with too much work to do against rivals who possess similar finishing speed.
“His acceleration is a major weapon, but there are others in this race with comparable turn-of-foot that are likely to settle much closer in the run.”
“When you’re relying on a horse to circle the field in a slowly run race, you’re taking a lot on trust.”
Beirne will be offering $4 about the horse to run FIRST OR SECOND. Click here.
