Shaun Beirne has never been one to blindly follow market confidence. His approach has always been shaped by ratings first, race shape second, and price last. If those three don’t line up, he is more than comfortable stepping away from a popular betting position.
That mindset comes to the fore again this weekend, with Beirne happy to oppose a short-priced favourite at Randwick and take a firm stance against what he sees as a mispriced market at Caulfield.
Randwick Race 8: Whinchat under the microscope
Whinchat has been well supported and sits around the $3.10 mark, but Beirne believes the market is assuming a race shape that is far from guaranteed.
“There’s pace there, and Whinchat might cross and lead,” he said. “But that’s a big might. It’s a deep race and there are a few ways this can play out.”
From a ratings perspective, Beirne sees little justification for Whinchat being priced as a clear favourite.
“The ratings edge just isn’t equivalent to the price, If he doesn’t get control, you’re suddenly taking a very short price in a race with genuine depth.”
Caulfield Race 5: A market worth taking on
Caulfield Race 5 is where Beirne sees a genuine opportunity to attack down south.
“I think the market has this race wrong,” he said. “When you break it down, the top three all have question marks.”
Declared is the first he is keen to oppose.
“I can’t get Declared anywhere near the price on ratings and that’s the big red flag for me.”
Damehood, while proven fresh, presents a different problem.
“She’s got a good first-up record, but she maps wide and back. I’m not convinced that’s the spot you want to be in this race.”
Expulsion is closer to the mark, but still not enough to sway him.
“Expulsion maps okay and rates okay,” Beirne said. “But even then, I’ve still got it marked a touch unders.”
Instead, Beirne is siding with Salsa Fellow and Along The River, both of whom he believes are better suited to the race shape and offer genuine value.
Make sure you’re betting with betlegends.com.au to get the most out of Caulfield race five.
