Shaun Beirne has been quietly doing damage to punters in recent weeks. Lay after lay has been beaten, with his ratings repeatedly holding firm against the market.
He’s back again on Saturday with a familiar approach. Two races, two favourites the market has gravitated toward, and two instances where Beirne believes the price isn’t right.
Gold Coast Race 8: Payline needs to lift
Payline arrives here deep into his preparation and well found in early markets. Beirne isn’t convinced.
“He’s seventh-up now and while his ratings are near the mark, he still needs to find a step to justify the price,” Beirne said.
The bigger concern, though, is how the race shapes.
“The map is highly questionable. Dropping back to 1100 metres with very little early pace, barrier three actually becomes a hindrance rather than a help,” he said.
In a race likely to reward horses who can generate speed and momentum at the right time, Beirne sees Payline as vulnerable if things don’t fall perfectly into place.
Wyong Race 9: Second-up stats misleading?
Know Thyself ticks plenty of boxes. A neat second-up record. A tidy resume. A story that sells itself.
But Beirne prefers to peel back the curtain in search of potential knocks.
“I always look at horses by spell count and compare them to previous preparations,” he said. “Yes, the three-from-three second-up stat jumps off the page, but context matters.”
That context raises some red flags.
“The last two of those wins were on very wet tracks. The other came at his second career start in a Scone Class 1. He was clearly better than that grade,” Beirne said.
While he liked the way the gelding returned this prep, Briene believes he’s under the odds on Saturday.
“He’s come back well, but the market has overdone it. We’ve already laid him to a sharp punter at $3, and I’d be surprised if you don’t get better than that again.”
The Bet Legends philosophy
Bet Legends are consistently aggressive late in betting, willing to push back when prices stray from Beirne’s ratings. Customers still get the best of both worlds: strong opinions, value pricing and promotions that reward staying engaged.
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