It’s only Wednesday, but Shaun Beirne isn’t easing into the week.
He never shies away from an opinion and today he’s steaming straight into the market, prepared to take on two well-backed favourites at Caulfield and Eagle Farm.
That doesn’t mean they can’t win. But, we warned Beirne has been seeing them like beach balls.
If you like these horses, make sure you’re taking the very best of the market. Bet Legends will be top price on this pair of runners, so don’t be accepting unders elsewhere. And if you’d rather side with the ratings and ride Shaun’s coattails, follow him in and bet around these favourites.
Because midweek or Saturday, the edge is always in the price.
Caulfield Race 6 – Xarpo
Xarpo resumes in what shapes as one of the stronger races on the card and the market has her prominent at $3.20 off the back of a powerful first-up win last preparation.
On Beirne’s numbers, that performance was a clear career peak, a two-length personal best that would absolutely measure up here.
“She won first-up last prep in a career PB and that rating wins this race,” Beirne said.
“In a race of this depth,s he probably needs that same figure again, maybe even a length better, to justify the current price.”
The recent trials have been sound without screaming ‘ready to explode’.
“They’ve been fair without being spectacular. I’m not convinced you want to be taking short odds on him having to produce his peak first-up in a deep race.”
It is not a knock on ability.
It is purely a pricing call.
“If she drifts and you can get overs, different story. But at the current quote, I’m happy to risk her.”
If you are backing him, shop hard. There will be at least one operator happy to take him on.
Eagle Farm Race 8 – Kadall
Up north, Kadall shapes as one the market expects to improve sharply from barrier one.
He has gone back at his past two starts, which has not suited, and the inside draw should allow him to settle closer to the speed.
“Tactically he maps better here,” Beirne said. “From barrier one he likely sits closer, which is a positive.”
On ratings alone, he has produced figures that stack up to the requirement of this race.
But the broader profile is less convincing.
“Only one of his past seven runs would justify this price. The better ratings are now some time ago.”
On Beirne’s scale, Kadall still needs to find close to three lengths to be genuine value at the current quote.
“He can win. But you’re betting on him getting back to something we haven’t seen recently.”
Again, the message is clear.
If you want to back him, take the very best price available and find the bookie who wants to lay him. Bet Legends will be top of the market if they are keen to take him on.
Otherwise, take the tip and look at other runners to find the winner.
