NOTE: Forecast important. Windy day with strong northerlies expected right up until about 6pm, when it’s expected to shift southerly and weaken significantly. Have backed in the forecast, but if the northerly stays up throughout the night it will be tough for those on speed/facing the breeze in circle races (1400m+).
Race 3 – 7:15PM Cameron Industrial Commercial Maiden Plate (1000 METRES)
Handy little 2yo race out of the sprint chute. Barriers of little importance with just a slight bend to navigate.
Love how #2 BRAZEN DECHAMBEAU has jumped-out either side of his Flemington debut. He has a wicked turn of foot that should be suited to the long home straight at Pakenham. Wide draw is fine for him as suspect he would get back anyway, and it guarantees clean air. Little concern is he wasn’t flash on debut at Flemington in one racetrack outing but it was a soft track that day and a race dominated on speed/nearer the inside. He’s the horse to beat.
Do think #1 AROUND THE MARX is a huge price at 40/1. He can roll forward on debut having trialled well at Balnarring most recently. His preparatory work certainly hasn’t been that of a 40/1 pop – he should be much shorter.
#5 OUR BRAVE BOY has been very well backed ahead of his home-track debut. He has shown talent in two jump-outs leading into this and should have a tactical edge on BRAZEN DECHAMBEAU. Can win, but looks well enough found now.
Suggested bet:
Backing #2 BRAZEN DECHAMBEAU with something small on #1 AROUND THE MARX.
Race 5 – 8:15PM Ladbrokes Future Stars Series Heat 1 (1200 METRES)
The first of the Future Stars heats, which are always strong.
Love how #2 CYBER LINK has been jumping-out ahead of his debut. He has had a number of jump-outs, which can be perceived as a concern, but it also means he has plenty of experience. He’s a horse that will naturally put himself near the speed, so expect him to get a gun run from gate six. Everything he has done on the training track suggests above average ability. Think he’s the horse to beat and can mark him shorter than the $3.20 on offer.
As the market suggests, danger looks #7 SALUDAR. The query is he’s likely to settle off speed which could render gate one awkward, but he has a strong turn of foot.
Suggested bet:
Keen #2 CYBER LINK. Could have a small save #7 SALUDAR to chop out if he wins.
