Race 5 – 3:40PM Davidson Earthmoving BM66 Handicap (1000 METRES)
#1 CHARMED RUN looked super in a recent Cranbourne jump-out. She finished second behind Express Class, but was under a huge hold and could’ve won the heat comfortably. She’s a ripping fresh mare, having won three of five first up, running second once and her only miss was a luckless run at Caulfield last campaign. She gets a handy claim here for the in-form Bailey Kinninmont who takes 3kg off her back. Bailey and trainer Luke Oliver are going at 20% when they team up. Charmed Run should camp on the back of what looks a strong speed before pouncing late – provided they can make ground she will prove awfully hard to hold out.
#2 REIGNING KING drops in grade and getting back around a bend suits. He trialled well leading into the campaign and coming off a long spell will only improve.
#5 DU CLISSON is still on the up and she goes well for Linda Meech, who rides today. She should push forward from the wide draw and will be in this a long way. That said, this looks a stronger test that what she tackled last time out, she has a slightly sticky draw and punters are being asked to take $1.65! It looks skinny.
Suggested bet:
#1 CHARMED RUN is over the odds at $4. Taking the price; think she starts shorter.
Race 8 – 5:25PM Mickey Bourkes Koroit Hotel BM62 Handicap (1200 METRES)
#4 BARDIA’S DREAM resumes off two strong jump-outs at Flemington. In both, she’s settled handy and quickened impressively, particularly in her latest where she closed off to win with authority. She’s a lightly-raced mare still on the up, having won two of four last preparation.
While she’s often been ridden conservatively, she showed last campaign at Sandown that when she draws low, as she does again today from gate one, she can settle much closer. On that occasion she had no luck late. She’s a reasonable barrier horse, so expect Houston to roll forward and land just behind the speed, which should give her every chance.
She holds a tactical edge over #2 SUPRISATIC, who is clearly airborne but faces his toughest assignment to date rising in grade. With some map concerns, he looks under the odds despite again having a genuine chance.
Ratings-wise, Bardia’s Dream is more than up to this, and the jump-outs suggest she has come back improved. On that basis, I have her marked a clear favourite.
Suggested bet:
Backing #4 BARDIA’S DREAM – $3.70 + looks a good price. Expect her to start favourite.
