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The weekend that was: A roller coaster ride for Ponybet

Big bets, free-bet pain and a familiar mix of wins and losses across a busy racing weekend.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
January 12, 2026
in Magic Millions, News
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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If last weekend was about the stars aligning, this one was a reminder of how quickly gravity returns.

For Ponybet, it was an up-and-down few days that swung sharply between clean wins, awkward liabilities, and the kind of results that leave bookmakers shrugging and moving on.

“It was one of those weekends,” said Ponybet CEO Jason Scott. “Plenty happening, some good results, some that sting, and a lot that just balanced out in the wash.”

 

Friday: Winning day, but not without pain

Friday finished green overall, but not before a familiar punch to the ribs courtesy of American college basketball.

A keen punter unloaded $30,000 at $1.60 on Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners against Cal Riverside Highlanders.

“They were down by four at halftime,” Scott said. “But the favourite rallied and won by a point. That one definitely got our attention.”

There was further pain for Ponybet with a free swing netting one punter a big result.

“A three-leg multi of favourites using a free bet landed at almost the exact same time,” Scott said. “That cost us $14,500.”

All bookmakers share the same view on those.

“Losing on free bets hurts,” Scott said. “There’s no upside for the book, so when they land, you feel it.”

 

Saturday: Favourites win, Ponybet escapes the worst

Saturday was a strange day across the racing landscape. Despite five of the last six favourites winning at the Gold Coast, Ponybet avoided the worst of it.

“Interestingly, most punters who just followed the popular elect struggled,” Scott said. “Our biggest winning customers actually found winners at odds.”

That pattern revealed itself early at Flemington.

“Tarvue in Race 4 was the first sign of what was coming. We missed the early $17, but we were heavily tied in on the totes with multiple four-figure bets from a small group of customers.”

Flemington Race 4 | Tarvue

Tarvue packs plenty of punches in the straight, staving off the challengers to score at double-figure odds 👊

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/KpRvvXA9wH

— Racing.com (@Racing) January 10, 2026

Race eight at Flemington should’ve been a bookies’ race with the heavily backed Hedged rolled.

“Hedged held about 80 per cent of the money. From a hold perspective it was one of our best races.”

But comfort doesn’t always mean profit.

“Disneck was well supported at $11.50. One client had $1,800 and there were plenty of other bets. Even with the hold, we still lost on the race.”

Kembla Grange was quiet, but not silent.

“We had one sharp customer take $1,000 at 25-1 about Deep Emotion in the last,” Scott said. “That was well spotted.”

The Sunshine Coast delivered a more balanced kind of pain. While favourites dominated, Spyware was the exception at $5.50.

“We wrote $2,500, $3,000 and $2,000 at 9-2. By the time it was done, we lost as much there as we did on a couple of the short ones.”

Spywire has its day! ☀️ Wins for @cmaherracing at the Gold Coast 🏆 pic.twitter.com/fFF6731iL1

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) January 10, 2026

Tony Gollan enjoyed a strong day with a double, but Ponybet was relieved it didn’t turn into something bigger.

“Our biggest liability was Boomtown Babe in the last,” Scott said. “She was horrible for us through singles and doubles.”

A $10,000 tote bet was the headline, but the overall exposure ran much deeper.

“That race alone was a six-figure loser if Boomtown Boss saluted so we were glad she couldn’t get the job done.”

 

Chop out on the day and move on

By the time the dust settled, the ledger told a familiar story.

“It ended up a chop,” Scott said. “That’s bookmaking. You take it, you learn from it, and you move on.”

Next stop is Magic Millions week, where volume rises, opinions sharpen, and the ledger rarely sits still for long.

For Ponybet, it’s back to work – knowing full well that next weekend could look completely different again.

 

Tags: College BasketballFlemingtonGold CoastHeadgedPonybetSpywireTarvueTony Gollan
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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