Trav Noonan's runner by runner Cup preview

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*All prices quoted are correct as at 9.30am, 3/11/2025.

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Speed Map

Feel that the race will be run at an average tempo with Changingoftheguard coming across to lead from the likes of Smokin’ Romans, River Of Stars, Chevalier Rose and Arapaho. Vauban should be next on the fence, Torranzino could push forward also from a wide alley, and Athabascan, Royal Supremacy, Absurde, Buckaroo and Half Yours likely want spots midfield.

Al Riffa, Meydaan and Flatten The Curve drawn wide probably go back and settle in the back half. Presage Nocturne could be ridden more aggressively early as he’s a strong stayer, while expecting Onesmoothoperator to be back and put to sleep. Valiant King should be ridden cold to finish off, with Middle Earth and Furthur back with him.

Most advantaged: Arapaho, Absurde, Half Yours, Al Riffa, Vauban
Least advantaged: Meydaan, Goodie Two Shoes, Royal Supremacy

1. AL RIFFA – Joseph O’Brien – Mark Zahra ($8.50)

Irish St Leger winner at his last start and comes here in career best form for two-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. This guy is well travelled, having raced in France, America, Saudi Arabia, Ireland, Germany and the United Kingdom – a genuine globetrotter.

He’s competed at the top level since his two-year-old season, chasing some of the best horses in the world in the past 18 months including City Of Troy (2nd in the 2024 Coral Eclipse Stakes) and Rebel’s Romance at Ascot in the Hardwicke Stakes this year.

His past two starts have seen him step up in trip, and he’s been destroying his opposition – he hosed them up in the Curragh Cup by five lengths and then backed that up with another dominant win in the Irish St Leger, beating good stayers Amiloc and Al Qareem by four lengths.

He makes a powerful run from the 600m and outsprints his opposition, looking incredibly classy. He does need to carry 59kg to win a Melbourne Cup, which would be a modern-day record, but recent topweights like Incentivise (2nd in 2021 – 57.5kg), Gold Trip (1st in 2022 – 57kg) and Without A Fight (1st in 2023 – 56.5kg) have shown the best horses can shoulder the weight.

He handles all ground and gets leading rider Mark Zahra in the saddle. The Irish St Leger as a final lead-up has produced eight horses that have finished top four in the Cup since 2000, with Twilight Payment (2020) the lone winner. Overseas last-start runners have finished top four on 21 occasions in that period, so no knock on his preparation.

The draw could have been better, but he’ll be put to sleep early and allowed to build his revs from the 800m.

Verdict: The horse to beat. A world-class stayer and certainly can win. 2nd pick.

2. BUCKAROO – Chris Waller – Craig Williams ($9.00)

Underwood Stakes winner of 2024, back for another go at the Melbourne Cup after being one of the runs of the race last year when 8th after a torrid run. Last year he came through a Caulfield Cup 2nd; this year he arrives off a narrow defeat to champion Via Sistina in the Cox Plate.

He’d love the rain predicted for Monday and Tuesday, given his wet track record, and gets the services of Craig Williams. The query is whether he stays the trip – last year proved inconclusive. The Cox Plate has produced six Melbourne Cup winners since 2000, including Makybe Diva, Efficient, Green Moon, Fiorente, Verry Elleegant and Gold Trip.

Verdict: Reluctantly against – can’t tip them all but concede if he gets the right run he can win. Not sure he’ll stay the trip and the market hasn’t missed him. Too short for mine.

3. ARAPAHO – Bjorn Baker – Rachel King ($41)

Sydney Cup winner who’s been below his best this campaign, only managing a midfield finish in the Bendigo Cup. On his day he has the class to be right in the finish with two Group 1 wins and a proven record on wet tracks. He’ll stay all day but needs to find a bit on recent form.

Verdict: Good roughie. Solid Top 5 bet at good odds.

4. VAUBAN – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Blake Shinn ($26)

Has been right in the market in the last two runnings of the Melbourne Cup when failing to handle the occasion, finishing 14th in 2023 and 11th in 2024. Now with Waterhouse/Bott, he’s shown glimpses of his European form in the Tancred, Chelmsford and The Metrop. Poor in the Caulfield Cup but had a tough trip and didn’t love the firm ground. Better on wet tracks and has a good staying platform with three runs at 2000m+.

Verdict: Top 10 chance, especially with rain, but couldn’t find him as a winner.

5. CHEVALIER ROSE – Hisashi Shimizu – Damian Lane ($34)

Intriguing Japanese stayer who hasn’t been at his best this year, running about 10 pounds off his 2024 form when winning the Kyoto Daishoten (G2) and the Stayers Stakes (G2). All form on firm Japanese tracks, faces rain-affected going which is a real challenge. Highest ratings are similar to recent Japanese Cup runners like Breakup.

Verdict: Hard against on wet ground and current form.

6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE – Alessandro Botti – Stephane Pasquier ($8.50)

The French galloper was terrific in the Caulfield Cup when 4th with 57.5kg after covering ground. That was a clear personal best, lifting five pounds on his previous Group 1 run in France. Proven on wet tracks and a genuine stayer who’ll relish a fast-run race but may lack the sprint for a slowly run Cup.

Verdict: One of the leading players but may lack the turn of foot to win. Definite top chance.

7. MIDDLE EARTH – Ciaron Maher – Ethan Brown ($41)

Import who’s shown glimpses of his European talent, including an Australian Cup Prelude win. Runs this prep in the Underwood and Turnbull were forgivable; plain in the Caulfield Cup but better in the JRA Cup when wide and brave with 60kg. Trained by Ciaron Maher and well suited on wet ground. Expect improvement.

Verdict: Knockout hope and a good roughie. Include in exotics.

8. MEYDAAN – Simon & Ed Crisford – James McDonald ($20)

Well fancied in Caulfield Cup markets but drifted and finished 9th after a tough run. Gets J-Mac, which helps, but 3200m is new ground. Strong UK form but ratings softer than the top raiders. Drawn wide and may be posted throughout.

Verdict: Didn’t have enough ticks for me. Hard against from the draw.

9. ABSURDE – Willie Mullins – Kerrin McEvoy ($19)

Has run well in both previous Cups (7th in 2023, 5th in 2024) and was unlucky last year. Mixing jumps and flat racing again this season. Good Caulfield Cup run for 7th, held up turning. Proven on wet tracks and has a 3-time Cup-winning jockey aboard. May improve further on softer ground.

Verdict: Forgotten horse. Loves the wet, great exotics player. Can win, Top 5 bet.

10. FLATTEN THE CURVE – Henk Grewe – Thore Hammer-Hansen ($20)

Hard to line up but flying in 2025, winning six of his last seven. Smashed rivals last start at Kentucky Downs over 3319m. Proven on heavy ground and keeps improving. Unknown rider a small query, but he’ll stay and hit the line hard.

Verdict: Best roughie in the race. Monster odds and can win.

11. LAND LEGEND – Chris Waller – Joao Moreira ($81)

Last year’s Metrop winner who was tracking well early this spring but has been disappointing in his past two runs, finishing last in both the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup. Failed to stay the trip last year when in much better form. Despite being with the all-conquering Waller yard, looks one of the easier horses to oppose.

Verdict: Not going well enough. Hard against.

12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS – Ciaron Maher – Ben Melham ($61)

Group 1 winner who’s been below his best at his past couple in the Herbert Power and Moonee Valley Cup. Ran 7th in this race in 2022 when on speed and has not raced beyond 2400m since. Loves wet ground and should be right up near the lead but needs to find plenty on current form.

Verdict: Query at the trip and not going well enough. Pass.

13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD – Kris Lees – Tim Clark ($61)

Led throughout to win the Tattersall’s Cup at Randwick before disappointing efforts in the Metrop and Geelong Cup. Has world-class European form around Pyledriver and West Wind Blows but hasn’t shown that here. Also unproven on rain-affected going, which is a key concern.

Verdict: Will run the trip but hasn’t done enough this prep. Another I’m against.

14. HALF YOURS – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Jamie Melham ($7)

The Caulfield Cup winner sits on 53kg after being given a 2kg penalty. That was narrowly his best career rating, following his strong Turnbull 4th and Naturalism win. He’s been in work since March, rising from Benchmark grade to a Group 1 success, and has handled every challenge thrown at him.

Got all favours in the Caulfield Cup but his wet track record is outstanding, with four wins from six starts on affected ground including his Caloundra Cup romp. A slight query at 3200m after a long prep, but his class and consistency hold him in good stead.

Verdict: Love the horse and his prep. Handles wet ground and maps well. Major player who can win.

15. MORE FELONS – Chris Waller – Tommy Berry ($41)

Import who’s been sparingly raced since his 2023 Cup run. Prefers soft ground and has built nicely through the campaign, running on in The Metropolitan and then unsuited by the crawl in the ATC St Leger. Will stay the 3200m and gets Waller’s polish but might lack the class to win.

Verdict: Top 10 hope given the right platform but likely a few lengths short.

16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR – Brian Ellison – Harry Coffey ($26)

Moonee Valley Cup winner who thrives in Australia, producing both career peaks here. Took out last year’s Geelong Cup before starting $7 in this race when unsuited. Harry Coffey is a positive jockey change. The Valley win was solid but that form looks light for a Cup, and he may not relish the ground or the two-mile trip.

Verdict: Will run honestly but unlikely to win. Prefer others at the price.

17. FURTHUR – Andrew Balding – Michael Dee ($26)

Northern Hemisphere three-year-old who was sixth in the UK St Leger behind top-class Scandinavia. Prior to that won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury and showed a good turn of foot. Trained by Andrew Balding, who travels horses well, and gets Michael Dee. Question mark on a genuine wet track but otherwise fits the European profile that has succeeded before.

Verdict: Nice form lines but suspect on the ground. Passing for that reason.

18. PARCHMENT PARTY – William Mott – Johnny Velazquez ($81)

Belmont Gold Cup winner and the first American-trained horse to contest the Melbourne Cup. Comes here in red hot form but all recent racing has been on dirt, including wins at Saratoga. Difficult to gauge whether he can translate that to turf. Ratings are competitive on paper, but this is a leap of faith.

Verdict: Great to see an American runner but impossible to have. Hard against.

19. ATHABASCAN – John O’Shea & Tom Charlton – Declan Bates ($81)

Finally gets his chance after missing the Cup the last two years. Has had a perfect grounding with two lead-in runs at 2400m and 2500m. Stuck on gamely in the Moonee Valley Cup behind Onesmoothoperator and is proven at two miles via his Sydney Cup placings. Honest and tough.

Verdict: Hitting form at the right time and will stay. Top 10 hope if track not too wet.

20. GOODIE TWO SHOES – Joseph O’Brien – Wayne Lordan ($41)

The second of the Joseph O’Brien pair brings a unique profile, having mixed steeplechase and flat racing in Ireland this year. Won three straight stakes races including one at 3200m but her top Racing Post rating is 15lb inferior to Al Riffa’s. Proven on soft ground but wears concussion plates, which is a negative.

Verdict: Honest mare who will stay but lacks the class. Outside top chances.

21. RIVER OF STARS – Chris Waller – Beau Mertens ($17)

Arrives in peak form after her second in the Caulfield Cup. Proven at the distance with a Sydney Cup placing and well in with just 51.5kg for Beau Mertens. Handles all conditions and has had a textbook prep. The knock is she started 100-1 at Caulfield and may not get the same favours here.

Verdict: Respect her form and map but just outside my top four. Definite exotics player.

22. ROYAL SUPREMACY – Ciaron Maher – Robbie Dolan ($31)

The Metropolitan winner continues to improve for the Maher stable and now gets last year’s Cup-winning rider Robbie Dolan. Has performed well all prep through the Wyong Prelude, Newcastle Cup and Caulfield Cup. Carries only 51 kg and has timing on his side, though still does a bit wrong and can miss the start.

Verdict: Flying and well weighted but may get too far back. Fringe top 10.

23. TORRANZINO – Paul Preusker – Celine Gaudray ($34)

Geelong Cup winner who’s been outstanding for a year, also claiming the Country Cups Final and Easter Cup. Given a traditional staying preparation with five runs this campaign, all above 1800m. Handles all conditions and has tactical speed to settle handy. May lack the Group 1 class but weighted to run a big race.

Verdict: Ideal prep, well weighted, and capable on all ground. Genuine Top 5 player.

24. VALIANT KING – Chris Waller – Jye McNeil ($8.50)

Comes off a brilliant Bart Cummings win after the blinkers went on and followed up with a strong third in the Caulfield Cup when held up late. Clearly thriving now and gets a Cup-winning lightweight rider in Jye McNeil. Exceptionally well in at the weights (51 kg) and has genuine upside. Handles all surfaces.

Verdict: No real knocks, just a touch short in the market. Live winning chance.

ASSESSED MARKET (to 100%)

1. AL RIFFA	$6.50
2. BUCKAROO	$21
3. ARAPAHO	$34
4. VAUBAN	$126
5. CHEVALIER ROSE	$201
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE	$18
7. MIDDLE EARTH	$41
8. MEYDAAN	$67
9. ABSURDE	$13
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE	$11
11. LAND LEGEND	$301
12. SMOKIN’ ROMANS	$301
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD	$201
14. HALF YOURS	$7.50
15. MORE FELONS	$67
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR	$26
17. FURTHUR	$31
18. PARCHMENT PARTY	$81
19. ATHABASCAN	$67
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES	$67
21. RIVER OF STARS	$18
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY	$34
23. TORRANZINO	$21
24. VALIANT KING	$11