Betsy’s Set: Melbourne Cup Day

Race 1

Loved the debut run of (2) Tornado Valley at Caulfield. He trialled well prior to that debut where he got back, had to change course in the straight and was strong late. Not easy for a 2yo to have that ducking and weaving run and still finish off, especially on debut. Zahra is off, but Ethan Brown jumps on and he is riding very well, plus he rode this horse in jump-outs prior to that debut.

Thought (6) Prince Of Portland looked good winning his recent Caulfield jump-out. Ran good time and only got stronger on the line.

Loved the way (3) Brazen Dechambeau quickened down in a Cranbourne jump-out, albeit only over 650m. Drawn out, which isn’t ideal for these 2yo races as they generally come to the inside fence down the straight, but has talent.

Lindsay Park seem to win the majority of 2yo races and their debutant (4) Carnevale has been well backed since markets opened. Mark Zahra rides him over Tornado Valley (?) and jump-outs have been good, without him being let off the chain.

Selections:
(2) Tornado Valley
(6) Prince Of Portland
(3) Brazen Dechambeau
(4) Carnevale
Suggested Bet: bet365 are giving punters a free swing on this race (click here). I’d be looking at either Tornado Valley or Prince of Portland. Tough 2yo race to start Cup Day!

Race 2

(3) Makdane maps perfectly here and he gets his ideal soft track conditions. Thought he was excellent behind a really talented Zambardo last time out and now he gets the going to suit. His ratings are consistently good enough to win this and Craig Williams knows him well. Should settle leader’s back and be in this a long way.

Liked the way (2) Lodbrok worked to, and through, the line at Sandown fresh. That was only a mile and his best is over significantly further, so suspect he has come back in good order. Drawn for a lovely run in the race, he can run well at a big price.

(7) Brave Miss loves the sting out of the ground – which she gets – and she’s coming into this off a dominant win in the Pinker Pinker Plate at Cranbourne last start, which rated quite well.

(14) Giggenbach will be suited by what looks a reasonable tempo. She is lightly-raced and still on the up and the form through her Pakenham win last time out stacks up here.

Selections:
(3) Makdane
(2) Lodbrok
(7) Brave Miss
(14) Giggenbach
Suggested Bet: Backing Makdane/Lodbrok.

Race 3

Sticky map but hard not to be impressed with (4) Different Gravy. He was super behind Freedom Flame when running second in the Hill Smith Stakes in Adelaide. His maiden win prior was strong at Swan Hill and he’s still very much learning what it’s all about. Wide draw, but they have a reasonable straight run before they start turning.

1400 to 1800m second up is a query for (1) Matahga but he’s a talent and the soft track will suit. Got too far out of his ground at Caulfield first up, but work to the line was solid. He hits a real flat spot in his races, so Willo will need to be awake to that, but he’s got ability.

(9) Arabian Prince missed a run in Saturday’s Derby where he did look suited. They were aiming at 2500m there and now he drops back to 1800m, which doesn’t look ideal. That said, he comes out of a host of slowly run races and there should be a bit more tempo here, which will suit.

(3) Champagne Hero looks suited dropping back to 1800m and should lead them up here with Shinn aboard. He will give them something to catch.

Race doesn’t end there.

Selections:
(4) Different Gravy
(1) Matahga
(9) Arabian Prince
(3) Champagne Hero
Suggested Bet: Not keen at all.

Race 4

Speed comes from (4) Street Artist and (12) Wintery primarily. (11) Cavalry Girl should be right there. Looks reasonable tempo for the 1000m.

(2) Pallaton heads the market and there’s little doubt he comes through the strongest form races. He looked to peak on his run in the Brian Crowley (5th best last 200m split of the entire meeting and suspect a good deal of that was the last 100m). He’s run well at 1000m, he maps to track a key danger in Street Artist and he has a consistent ratings profile that can see him winning this. The query is 1200 to 1000m on a nine day back up – will he have the freshness in his legs?

Street Artist is an out and out 1000m horse. He was dominant at Mornington first up from a gelding operation and then beat a handy field at Bendigo second up, but didn’t look quite as dynamic at the 1100m. Dropping back to 1000m here off 30 days is ideal and a little tick-over trial between runs was excellent.

(10) Vangogh Bankcheque is over the odds. Best last 400/200m splits of the meeting winning a handy 1000m maiden at Echuca on debut. The third horse, Frosted In Time, won by approximately 1000L at Kilmore on Friday. Her turn of foot should see her suited to straight-track racing.

(13) Choir Point won a strong maiden at Pakenham on debut and she will get a nice run just off the speed. Talented filly.

Selections:
(4) Street Artist
(10) Vangogh Bankcheque
(2) Pallaton
(13) Choir Point
Suggested Bet: Backing Street Artist and Vangogh Bankcheque

Race 5

(10) Golden Century didn’t handle the turn at all well at Caulfield last time out, but was good when he balanced up in the straight. Gets a weight turnaround in his favour on (9) Litzdeel from that clash and if you swap the runs I think you swap the result. Sting out will be no issue, just need a good steer from Moreira.

He has plenty of weight, but (1) Cleveland ran an improved race without luck in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He was badly held up at a crucial stage but hit the line strongly once clear. Step to 2800m is ideal and he’s drawn to do no work.

Litzdeel is still on the way up and the deeper she got into her last campaign the better she got. She’s got a track and distance second to her name, albeit that was in a pretty weak St Leger. Some query on wet ground.

Selections:
(10) Golden Century
(1) Cleveland
(9) Litzdeel
(5) Cadmus
Suggested Bet: Backing Golden Century/Cleveland

Race 6

Scratching’s have knocked this around a bit.

(6) Athanatos is going to need a good ride early from the wide draw but he’s airborne this time in. Terrific behind the Toorak quinella (Transatlantic/Evaporate) in the Sandown Stakes two back and then a good fourth in the Toorak Handicap up near a hot tempo. He’s a winner out to 2000m so the 1800m isn’t an issue. Query in genuine wet ground as his two ‘soft’ track runs have only been 5ths.

(3) Kingswood was terrific here over 1700m two back before heading to Sydney for the Hill Stakes. Maps for a very good run in the race and not concerned if the track deteriorates.

(5) Saint George was terrific first up from a long break in the Seymour Cup (4th best last 400/2nd best last 200m split of the meeting). Hasn’t won for a while and needs to repeat it second up off a long break, but back in grade on what he’s contested in previous campaigns.

Race doesn’t end there.

Selections:
(6) Athanatos
(3) Kingswood
(5) Saint George
(1) Unspoken
Suggested Bet: Something small Athanatos, save Kingswood.

Race 7 – Melbourne Cup

For my speed map, click here

The Caulfield Cup is a key form reference for this year’s Cup and (6) Presage Nocturne turned in a fantastic run there. His best French form is on tracks with give, which he will get on Tuesday. He gets a 2.5kg turnaround on Half Yours, and the step to 3200m will absolutely suit him. Drawn to get an ideal run in transit tracking the favourite, he looks awfully hard to beat.

(21) River Of Stars was another horse that turned in a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup, sitting reasonably handy to a hot speed (she went five lengths above standard to the 800m mark herself). She has run some handy races on soft ground in France and the UK before coming to Australia – think she handles it, but she isn’t a swimmer. She’ll be in the first four or five in running and will see out the 3200m strongly.

(14) Half Yours looks like he is going to get conditions to suit with a Soft track. He was given a terrific run in the Caulfield Cup but too strong for them there. The way he has run out the 2400m in each of his tries, doubt the 3200m pulls him up. Has to carry a penalty now for winning that Caulfield Cup but has drawn to get a perfect run in the race.

(24) Valiant King has been a new horse since the blinkers went on two starts back and he will be super strong while others are weakening late. Terrific win two back in the Bart Cummings off a hot tempo and then the flashing light run in the Caulfield Cup. He went to the line locked together with Onesmoothoperator when running midfield in last year’s Cup, but he’s going at least a couple of lengths better this year. Has run well on soft ground across his career without being a genuine wet-tracker.

Think the best roughie in the race is (23) Torranzino. He was close to a hot speed in the Bart Cummings and stuck on very well behind Valiant King. He then won the Geelong Cup, beating Gilded Water, which is a good form reference for this year’s Cup. Drawn out, but think Celine Gaudray can push forward. Wet track no issue.

(1) Al Riffa is the class in the race. He brings strong ratings and clearly deserves to be topweight. Dominant in the Irish St Leger, though not sure it was the strongest edition. Wide draw, but he’d probably get back anyway.

(2) Buckaroo is arguably going better than he was leading into last year’s Melbourne Cup when he had to make a searching, wide run before finishing ninth. He’s a query at the 3200m, but the softening track is certainly in his favour. Should get a nice run from gate twelve.

(8) Meydaan is still lightly raced and an emerging stayer. He’s a query on genuinely wet ground, but he had plenty of excuses in the Caulfield Cup: covered ground, pulled early, didn’t handle the home bend, and yet was good through the line. He’s going to need a good ride from gate 22 to get him home, but he’s right in the mix.

There has been a stack of money for (10) Flatten The Curve. He’s a winner, no doubt, and ratings seem like they will measure up here. For mine, he’s going to spot them a huge start and I was happy to be against him at $19 but respect the weight of support.

Selections:
(6) Presage Nocturne
(21) River Of Stars
(23) Torranzino
(24) Valiant King
(14) Half Yours
(1) Al Riffa
Suggested Bet: If you have $50, I’d have $30 Presage Nocturne, $15 River of Stars, $5 Torranzino.

Race 8

A lot of unknowns on a wet track.

(15) Ludlum beat two subsequent winners in breaking his maiden in style at Seymour last win. It was a dominant victory. The step to 1400m looks ideal and the Grahame Begg stable are airborne at the moment. Well backed as soon as markets went up.

(2) Navy Pilot is drawn for a gun run and if he bounced out of the Guineas in reasonable fashion then he could have won, for sure. Drop back to 1400m no issue – beat Bacash at this trip two back.

You know what you’ll get with (4) Bacash. He will put himself up on speed and give his all. He can easily overcome the wide draw here and should be in it a long way.

(7) Ripley has a tricky draw but he’s still on the up this campaign. Comes through a hot form race behind Tentyris at Caulfield and think he’s ready for 1400m now.

Selections:
(15) Ludlum
(2) Navy Pilot
(4) Bacash
(7) Ripley
Suggested Bet: Tough race!

Race 9

Good speed with (1) Fancify likely leading from (15) Surfin’ Bird. If here, (3) Dance To The Boom also presses forward.

Surfin’ Bird’s win at Caulfield last start was enormous. There were a few big-margin winners that day, so we tread a little warily, but she absolutely belted Shadavar and ran more than a second quicker than the other 1440m race on the program. She’s proven on soft ground, having won a strong-form maiden on a Soft 7 at Moe, so rain poses no concern.

(14) Pondalowie is flying but hasn’t had much go her way. She finally draws a gate and ideally settles a touch closer. She was a noted frontrunner earlier in her career but has developed a habit of being slow away. With even luck, she can make a mockery of her $21 price. She’s simply over the odds.

(10) Gumdrops rises to 1400m for just the second time, her only previous attempt coming at the end of a prep, and she was very good behind She’s Bulletproof at Caulfield last start despite the race shape. A sharp jump-out since and a perfect map make her a key chance.

(7) Electric Impulse comes into play if the rain arrives. She hasn’t raced for a year but has had three jump-outs to tune up and maps for a soft run.

Fancify won this race last year off the same Murray Bridge lead-up. The difference is she was flying into it then, whereas this time she’s been below her best. Still, she boasts a terrific 1400m record, loves the track and can roll forward. There are plenty of positives if she bounces back.

Selections:
(14) Pondalowie
(15) Surfin’ Bird
(10) Gumdrops
(7) Electric Impulse
Suggested Bet: Backing Surfin Bird WIN, Pondalowie 1×3 EW.
Example: with a $100 spend on the race: $60 WIN Surfin Bird, $10w x $30p Pondalowie.

Race 10

Best bet of the day (8) Sabaj has come out…

I think (2) Windstorm can run a race at odds. He goes very well fresh and loves rain-affected going. This looks like a target race and Shinn takes the ride. At 30/1 he seems well over the odds.

(12) Persian Spirit is drawn out and maps awkwardly, but depending on the pattern/rain that might not be such a disadvantage come race ten. He’s racing well and is one that will relish continued rainfall.

(3) Ndola didn’t post much time in winning last time out but has come back in good order this campaign.

Selections:
(2) Windstorm
(12) Persian Spirit
(3) Ndola
(7) Sunshineinmypocket
Suggested Bet: Something small Windstorm