The Warrnambool May Carnival is the punter’s sternest test. Three gruelling days of wagering, capacity fields, and fiercely competitive racing, where every runner has been carefully prepared to the minute.
There are six flat races on Tuesday, and we begin with race four, where Tom Dabernig again looms as a potential top trainer over the three days, after a highly successful carnival last year, when he landed four winners, more than any other stable across the 30-race meeting.
He saddles two runners in the race, most notably Positive Image, who was well fancied after a short lay-off at Stawell eighteen days ago.
He had jumped out very well beforehand and improved markedly on race day, producing a new peak performance.
Admittedly, racing on the pace at Stawell was an advantage that day, but they ran quicker than the BM56 later on the card and finished faster too. Time doesn’t lie.
There’s plenty of pace forecast in this, and importantly, he has already shown the capacity to absorb pressure and perform well. That should suit an on-pace ride from premier front-running jockey Linda Meech. He has not yet raced on rain-affected ground, which is some concern, but if he handles the going, he should be vying for favouritism.
I’mateez (race 8) is a half-brother to champion sprinter Imperatriz, and he was excellent on resumption at Geelong, finishing with the fastest concluding sectional across the meeting. He had trialled as though he’d improved leading into the campaign, and he raced exactly that way, producing a new peak performance.
A new career best looks on the cards, and if he can reproduce that level, only Arlington Row can replicate that form, though she doesn’t look ideally placed to do so. My best bet of the day on the first day of the carnival is I’mateez, and I’d expect him to be heavily supported and start favourite by the time they’re loading them into the barriers.
Will’s best bets for Day 1 at the ‘Bool:
Race 4 No.6 Positive Image
Race 8 No.6 I’mateez
