Good Will Hunting: Manikato Stakes

From a performance rating perspective, Lady Shenandoah holds a decisive advantage and is the runner to beat in this year’s Manikato Stakes. She anointed herself as a star among the sprinter-miler division, unbeaten in three starts last preparation between six furlongs in the Light Fingers Stakes and over a mile in the Coolmore Classic. The figures she returned in winning those races tower over her opposition in this field, and thus she is deserving of overwhelming favouritism.

Her task, however, isn’t as simple as translating superior performance ratings into winning on race day. Her racing pattern over this distance may be cause for concern at The Valley, a track that has historically brought horses of her ilk undone.

WATCH: Lady Shenandoah first up in the Concorde

Headwall holds off a flying Lady Shenandoah to win the Concorde!

Plenty to dissect out of that 🗻 pic.twitter.com/5BYKOVv1QP

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 6, 2025

To compound matters, she has drawn the widest barrier and is likely to settle at the rear of the field. That said, her task becomes slightly less arduous with James McDonald, the world’s best jockey, set to navigate the challenge.

She has to contend with five Group 1-winning sprinters in the field, all arguably better suited to a six-furlong sprint at The Valley.

The Main Rivals

Baraqiel raced himself into Manikato Stakes contention, maintaining his unblemished record at The Valley by winning the main lead-up, the Moir Stakes. While his maiden Group 1 success came over 1000 metres, his best performance remains the 1200 metre McEwan Stakes last year.

WATCH: Baraqiel wins the Moir

BARAQIEL 💥

He’s a Group 1 Star now! Ben Allen pulls off one of the great rides at The Valley to win the Moir 😮 pic.twitter.com/O07hlMonbY

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 6, 2025

He will improve over a high-pressure six furlongs, and can remain perfect at The Valley if the race unravels in his favour. I have assessed him as a $6.00 chance.

Alabama Lass, only beaten by Baraqiel in the Moir Stakes, will take improvement rising to six furlongs. Her peak performance came in New Zealand, winning the Group 3 Kings Plate by more than five lengths, beating Group 1 winner Crocetti in the process. If she can recapture that level of form, and with the advantage of her tactical speed, she’s a deserving second option to the favourite. She’ll undoubtedly need to improve on her run in the Moir Stakes, but with a favourable racing pattern and a performance rating that poses a challenge to Lady Shenandoah, her task is far from insurmountable. I’ve assessed her as a $5.50 chance and will be backing her.

Others in the Mix

Magic Time impressed most recently with a win in the Cockram Stakes and has been a mainstay of the sprinting division over the past 24 months. She’s without the peak rating of Lady Shenandoah, but she boasts two Group 1 victories, the second most in this field. She’s a consistent commodity, reliably returning a similar rating every time she graces a racetrack, but as aforementioned, doesn’t have the spectacular peak of the favourite. Like all of Lady Shenandoah’s opposition on Saturday, her chances depend on the favourite running below her best, but at The Valley, that scenario is far from impossible. I’ve rated her as a $10.00 chance in this race.

Skybird is a Group 1-winning mare with no shortage of talent, but one I’m prepared to oppose in this because of her likely settling position. If she, or any runner, settles behind Lady Shenandoah, a winning chance seems unlikely. I’ve rated her $14.00.

Race Shape & Verdict

The pace should be typical of a Group 1 sprint over 1200 metres, with Rothfire burning across to make the running, leaving Alabama Lass with an ideal lead into the straight. The pace will likely be strong enough for Lady Shenandoah, allowing her to unravel her sprint as they round the Valley bend.

Alabama Lass appears the most favourably suited runner, and with a peak rating that may pose a few questions to the favourite, I’ve rated her $5.50. With $8.00 available in the market, she is excellent value.

Lady Shenandoah is deserving of favouritism, but with a likely unfavourable position in transit, I’ve rated her as a $2.60 chance, as opposed to the current $2.40 available.

Note: A performance rating is a numerical measure of how well a horse has run in a particular race, taking into account factors such as the quality of opposition, weight carried, margins, and sectional times.