Summary of Best Bets
Race 5 No.6 Bold Strike
Race 6 No.8 Eternal
Turf Talk
- Midweek meeting at Caulfield Heath where tactical positioning is often key.
- On-speed runners can be advantaged if tempo moderates.
- Watch early races for any emerging pattern.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(8) Smoke Screen has a tendency to over-race but comes through a maiden that rated well on the clock and is rightful favourite. She was well supported to start favourite after two impressive trials and can break through in this. That said, Maher runners are a losing proposition second-up long-term and, while she is the top pick, I’d prefer to stay out.
(9) Sternin comes through the same race as Smoke Screen and is now fourth-up. She can settle prominently and give a good account of herself.
(3) California Flyer led at a genuine tempo first-up over 1200 metres off a 203-day spell. She can improve with that run under her belt.
(7) Invincible Lover was beaten eight lengths last start. While the winner has since performed well in town, I’m not convinced the race was strong overall. She looks vulnerable at her price.
Selections:
(8) Smoke Screen
(9) Sternin
(3) California Flyer
(7) Invincible Lover
Race 2
(4) Phoebe Buffay has settled into Australia well and has produced three consistently strong ratings since a disappointing first-up run. There appears to be limited speed on paper and she can take control.
(6) Pray Day was held up turning for home first-up but did cut the corner and save significant ground. The rise to nine furlongs second-up is the query.
(3) Mr Independent has been well supported since markets opened, which I don’t quite understand. He won well last start and should appreciate the trip, but he hasn’t run a good figure yet. At the price, he looks opposable.
(5) Just Jenni is lightly raced and open to improvement. She can peak here.
Selections:
(4) Phoebe Buffay
(6) Pray Day
(3) Mr Independent
(5) Just Jenni
Race 3
(4) Torsheen consistently operates at a level well above what most of these have produced at the weights. She should lead, has performed strongly at this track, and the filly who beat her last start has since run third in the Sunlight Classic. That form reads well.
(2) Shaime is a talented mare who is always thereabouts. She faces a tricky map but has the class to win.
(3) Sussex Duchess is fourth-up and capable of further improvement after running strong closing sectionals last start.
(1) Written Bligh carries significant weight but is a capable and genuine mare.
Selections:
(4) Torsheen
(2) Shaime
(3) Sussex Duchess
(1) Written Bligh
Race 4
(4) Melian made a promising debut behind the talented Arlington Row and should improve with race experience.
(1) Genomic has trialled impressively leading into his debut and has attracted strong early market support.
(6) Rough Enuff produced exceptional late sectionals when third at Pakenham on debut and can settle closer from barrier one.
(7) Santana resumes off a 270-day break but has trialled as though he’s returned in good order and has been well supported.
Selections:
(4) Melian
(1) Genomic
(6) Rough Enuff
(7) Santana
Race 5
(6) Bold Strike is third-up following two strong runs without winning. This is his ideal trip, he can settle prominently, and Ben Melham takes the ride. He deserves to start favourite.
(5) Loud Charlie was outclassed in the CS Hayes and missed the start, but had been progressing well prior. With Mark Zahra aboard, he can bounce back.
(1) Cachink rated well at Colac last start and is reliable at this level.
(7) Navy Nina has shown ability and can improve again third-up.
Selections:
(6) Bold Strike
(5) Loud Charlie
(1) Cachink
(7) Navy Nina
Suggested Bet: (6) Bold Strike WIN
Race 6
(8) Eternal has trialled exceptionally well ahead of this preparation and has shown he can sprint fresh. He dominated a field at Sale last campaign and, if he reproduces that figure, he wins.
(2) Insain Harry found seven furlongs beyond him last start and drops back to six quickly. He’s deep into the campaign, but if he improves from that below-par run, he’s a chance.
(7) King Tut has trialled well and looks in good order. Seven furlongs may ultimately suit him better.
(4) Stolen Art is worth including at big odds.
Selections:
(8) Eternal
(2) Insain Harry
(7) King Tut
(4) Stolen Art
Suggested Bet: (8) Eternal WIN
Race 7
(7) Lonstar rated strongly winning his maiden and benefits from Mark Zahra taking the ride.
(5) Commands Success is reliable and rarely runs poorly. He’ll be competitive for a long way.
(3) Esquel can settle prominently and benefits from a useful claim.
(4) Nordic Strike is talented but has drawn wide, which complicates his task.
Selections:
(7) Lonstar
(5) Commands Success
(3) Esquel
(4) Nordic Strike
Race 8
(10) Celerity was unlucky not to win on Super Bowl Monday at this track. I’ve long thought she would appreciate more ground and Jamie Melham’s engagement is a positive.
(9) Bedourie is lightly raced and has shown talent, particularly in her Moonee Valley win. If ready first-up, she can win a race like this.
(3) Excess can settle on speed and performs consistently at this level.
(8) Jennyanydots can give a sight if she settles closer from barrier one.
Selections:
(10) Celerity
(9) Bedourie
(3) Excess
(8) Jennyanydots
