The general consensus, on X at least, is that Darkbonee is glaringly too short at 6/4, and that Saint George, off his dominant Cranbourne win three weeks ago, is an outstanding gamble. For what it’s worth, I can’t disagree.
It’s fairly easy to understand the thinking behind Darkbonee’s plummet from 4/1 into 6/4. A strong south-easterly is forecast, which should advantage on-pace runners. Darkbonee, drawn wide, is almost certain to be ridden aggressively by Dee to cross, find the lead, and dictate terms. With very little genuine speed engaged on paper, it shouldn’t take much for him to assume control.
Although even allowing for that scenario, a soft lead and a tailwind as they straighten, his form still comes up short. He edged Vellasmachine by half a length in a BM66 last start, and regardless of class labels, the rating he produced there doesn’t stack up against the recent figures posted by Saint George or Berkeley Square. Both can be vulnerable to poor positioning relative to pace, but Saint George showed last start from barrier one that he can settle much closer to the speed. You’d hope connections look to repeat that initiative in the first 200 metres here.
The market has long been waiting for Saint George to deliver that ascendancy in form, essentially since he arrived in Australia. This is a horse that once started at $26 in a Melbourne Cup. By contrast, Darkbonee has narrowly won two races against horses restricted below a mark of 70. Now that Saint George has finally produced the performance that he’s always projected, he looks well placed to build on it, and this is another ideal opportunity to do so.
From a limited sample size, Robert Whearty has been exceeding market expectation, and I have no issue with him in this spot. He’s shown himself to be a capable rider and one worth trusting during his Australian stint.
