Racing returns to Caulfield, with two-year-olds set to show their hand in the respective Blue Diamond Previews. Both races are largely comprised of unraced fillies and colts and, as such, are mostly unappealing from a wagering perspective. Nonetheless, they will be of significant importance in shaping the market ahead of February’s Blue Diamond Stakes.
There are, however, several enticing betting prospects littered throughout the program, chief among them the feature event, the Manfred Stakes.
The Manfred Stakes is currently headed by Romantic Encounter, who made a swift impression in three starts last preparation. He won on debut at Bendigo before making the pace and yielding only to West Of Swindon in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley. He then finished well down the track in the Caulfield Guineas after blundering at the start.
All of this is to say that he is an atrocious favourite over six furlongs on a fast track at Caulfield. He may well win an Alister Clark over ten furlongs in March, but the Manfred over six in January is not his race.
Custom, by contrast, has been a slow-burning Godolphin filly who ascended through the grades in three starts last preparation, culminating in a brilliant run in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes. She made a decisive acceleration through the middle stages of the race at Moonee Valley, sweeping around a field that included the subsequent Thousand Guineas Prelude winner, a Thousand Guineas winner, and a Fillies Classic winner. A recent trial suggested she has returned in even better order, showing early pace and winning with authority.
If Jamie Melham can position her prominently, I’d be confident that she can build on her promising profile and make a winning return. At 5/1, she represents outstanding value.
Taken returns in the first of the day from a brief freshen following a disappointing performance in the Supernova. The pace was fierce; he travelled well but failed to respond once pressure was applied, weakening to finish second last. There was no excuse given in the stewards report, he may well have had an off day, as even good horses occasionally do. Nonetheless, he was well found in the market in a quality field, which is telling of the regard in which he is held.
He has since trialled soundly, looked in good order, and is well placed to rebound. His return at Caulfield was excellent, racing wide without cover before running down the race-hardened Catoggio on the line. The current quote of 6/4 takes a soft view of his form through the winter and doesn’t quite give him sufficient credit.
The second elect, Merrigold, was impressive winning at Flemington seven days ago, and that form demands respect. However, she was perfectly positioned relative to the pace, and finished well in a race that collapsed in front of her. Playing devil’s advocate, it was her first attempt at a mile and that may have been the reason for her sudden improvement, but I remain inclined to believe that she won’t reproduce that same level of performance here.
Taken is an even-money chance by my assessment, making 6/4 an edge.
The old adage of a Group horse in a handicap could well apply as Conchiero returns to racing following two impressive trials in esteemed company. He progressed neatly through the grades last preparation, recording wins in fast-time over seven and eight furlongs at Warwick Farm and Sandown respectively. He then started second favourite to Athonatos in Listed company in South Australia, where he returned lame, thus that run is easily forgiven.
The bar is not set particularly high here. If he can return anywhere near the level he reached last preparation, after a reasonably long layoff, he should prove far too good for this field. 4/1 undersells his chances.
Will Elford’s suggested bets:
Custom @ $6.00, Race 8 (Best Bet)
Taken @ $2.50, Race 1
Conchiero @ $5.00, Race 4
