Race 2: MDN 3YO (1600m)
Good Maiden race with implications on markets for the classic staying events coming up.
The speed on paper is modest, there’s an argument for (9) BURNERPHONE who is the ‘here and now’ horse. On-speed and ready to win, she lacks a finish at the end of her races. (1) BOWMAN will be prominent using the rail. (8) MISS PARKER is building a large pile of convictions. (2) HIGH SOCIETY has blinkers on, may roll forward.
Then there’s the potential stayers, (11) DUX impressed on debut when sent forward in a fast Maiden at Waverley and narrowly beaten, subsequently started short odds at Woodville and received a ride lacking intent, outsprinted and was spelled. Her return trial was excellent, she is versatile to go forward from the barrier. If there is intent to win the race, betting moves key. (12) SCARLETT SPELL hit the line hard in a fast race at Ellerslie last start showing her credentials for something longer. (17) INTEGRITY is a great type, big and leggy with a good stayer’s action, possibly looking for further already and may find it too sharp.
Suggested Bet: DUX at the odds
Race 3: (Rating 65/1100m)
Tempo is expected to be strong.
Map horse is (3) SCOLERA with what could be a replica of her last start effort here when 2nd chasing the progressive Drops Of God. The race rated high, a similar performance over 1100m has her well-placed to win. First-up winner (8) PANTHER was scratched from Friday’s Te Rapa meeting in preference for this race. He is worth keeping safe coming out of a moderate race where he was heavily backed and drops in distance, he needs to go up a level with the speed in his favour to do so. Query runner is (5) HIGH EMOTION dropping 1600-1100m after being torched on a fast tempo last start. Gives the impression from her early career runs this distance range suits her style of racing.
Suggesed Bet: SCOLERA
Race 6: (Rating 65/1600m)
With the majority of speed drawn out wide a genuine tempo is expected.
(7) AKSIL has the right profile to be winning at this level. An impressive debut victory at Taupo saw him start a warm favourite in the 3YO SWP at Ellerslie and ran his race before going out onto the track, sweating up noticeably and caught three-wide throughout before disappointing in the straight. The market found him again at Tauranga where he was only beaten by a brilliant Craig Grylls ride. Opie Bosson takes the mount from a middle draw with the speed on to finish over the top. Danger is (11) ROAD TO PARIS had race shape against at Trentham, barrier will require a well-timed ride.
Suggested Bet: AKSIL (Best)
Race 8: (Open Hcp 1500m)
A fast tempo expected.
(2) JAARFI finds her best race of the preparation. A game effort last start in the G1 Zabeel Classic when totally unsuited by distance and pace. The mare possesses a booming turn of foot when allowed to balance up and charge late over this distance range and is likely to get the set-up required for another win. (1) EL VENCEDOR holds a commanding figure over the race dropping back to Listed level. He received a tactically-poor ride in the G1 Zabeel Classic handing up the lead in a very slow race. Despite that, he also disappointed in his previous run in the G3 mile when allowed to dictate. His profile indicates he is at his best when ridden one way and sent, Opie Bosson has the opportunity from an inside barrier but there is pressure all around him. (15) MOXIE deserves her chance at Listed level having posted consistently strong numbers throughout her career despite being cruelled by bad barriers. Tempo key, she will make her run with JAARFI.
Suggested Bets: JAARFI & MOXIE
