Turf Talk
• The rail is in the 3.5m position from the 900–400m marks and true the remainder
• It is the same rail position as the last meeting, when the track was extremely biased to horses on speed/on the rail. One can only hope it has improved.
• With strong winds forecast, one would expect the track to dry out.
Race 2
Handy maiden this.
(5) Sicilian Warrior interests. He started his career with Matt Laurie, showing some ability in jump outs before never getting into his only raceday outing at Sandown. He has since changed stables to that of Toby Lake. He has finished down the track in his two jump outs, but he looked to move really well and had more to offer. He has been gelded and has a host of other gear changes. Clearly not a straightforward horse, but suspect he can run well at a price.
(6) Star Compass and (8) Arizona Luck have met in a race over the May Carnival and whilst the former clearly had the better, Arizona Luck still looked very green. They met in a trial at Casterton recently and both moved nicely. The map looks to favour Star Compass as think he will have a tactical edge, but there’s not a huge amount between them.
Betting suggestion: Backing (5) Sicilian Warrior at $10, (6) Star Compass at $2.80.
Race 3
(12) Where’s My Sock can run well at odds. She stood flat footed at her only career run, so put a pen through that. She has shown some ability in jump outs either side of that miss and can improve here. The little knock is she is still very dicey at barrier rise. She bombed the kick in her Kerang jump out but Farley was able to get her to jump better recently at Ararat. The positive is she musters very quickly, so the wide draw is advantageous.
(8) Just Another Girl has trialled up nicely for her debut. She has tactical speed and with Meech up should come across with Where’s My Sock and look to control the race.
(2) Regal Surge jumped out OK prior to Warracknabeal first up but sheesh, he was as flat as a biscuit there. Gets a gun run here and has fitness improvement to come, but he seems short enough.
Betting suggestion: Backing (12) Where’s My Sock and (8) Just Another Girl – keen.
Race 4
Going back to the well with (9) So Regal. She had her momentum halted at a crucial stage last time out at Warrnambool. The start prior, she was terrific against the bias at Pakenham. I’d love to see her ridden more aggressively off the pole draw, as there doesn’t look a lot of speed here.
(3) Zeamaize is the horse to beat. He maps perfectly from gate four and seems to be seeking 1400m now, after runs at 1100 and 1200m this time in. The form through his Mildura run two back is solid, with the winner and a horse from behind having since won. This looks an ideal set up.
Betting suggestion: Backing (3) Zeamaize at $3.40 and So Regal at $9.
