Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 5 – (3) Common Interest
- Next Best: Race 3 – (5) Golden Guru
- Value Bet: Race 7 – (12) Reine Of Nine
Turf Talk
- Clear and sunny conditions are forecast, with the track expected to be produced as a Good 4 to kick off the meeting.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting and will be +6m the entire circuit.
- Murray Bridge is a big track that generally plays fairly despite the rail being out, although there is often an advantage to finding cover in the run.
Stats that matter
- Garret Lynch brings a big team of runners to his home track and the stable is in strong form, with 17 winners from its last 100 runners and a POT of +30.5%.
- Jacob Opperman is in good form and rides this track particularly well, with a winning strike rate of 15.3% and a POT return of +22.8%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
There isn’t much exposed form in this race. (10) White Pointer has trialled well and makes his debut on his home track, while the race map sets up so he can figure prominently. (8) I Am Speed is next after winning a recent Morphettville trial and looks likely to get a good run from barrier three. (4) Bilk looks the next best based on his three trials and gets in well at the weights for his debut after the apprentice claim. (11) Silverleaves is one of the few runners with race experience and could have improvement to give having had that run
Selections:
(10) White Pointer
(8) I Am Speed
(4) Bilk
(11) Silverleaves
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(1) Hakeba was well supported last start and finished within a length of the winner in a race that looks quite similar on paper. He has a good level of fitness now and the wide barrier should not be a major concern from the chute start. (12) Quillan showed improvement last start and maps well for a good run on speed. After the apprentice claim she gets in light and could prove hard to catch rising to 1200m. (4) Mr Kimble is another runner who maps well from a low barrier and looks likely to race on speed, which could make him tough to catch if the tempo is only moderate. (3) Vaninetti resumes and looks a type who will be suited at 1200m, so this race appears a suitable starting point for the prep.
Selections:
(1) Hakeba
(12) Quillan
(4) Mr Kimble
(3) Vaninetti
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(5) Golden Guru has been consistent in the early part of his career in stronger races. He hit the line well first up and should be much better suited rising slightly in distance, so expect him to be strong through the line here. (6) Wine Snob resumes after showing talent in two runs during his debut campaign, and this race looks suitable. He maps well from barrier two and should settle in a forward position. (11) Friend In Me resumes with good early speed and a light weight, so she looks the key speed influence in the race and could prove hard to catch. (12) Veloce Girl was good on debut when hitting the line strongly into third here at Murray Bridge and should appreciate the slight rise in trip.
Selections:
(5) Golden Guru
(6) Wine Snob
(11) Friend In Me
(12) Veloce Girl
Suggested Bet: (5) Golden Guru – Win
Race 4
(4) Let It Ride has produced his best performances over 1600m and remains at that trip today after showing sharp improvement last start. He maps softly and is at peak fitness third up. He has had plenty of chances through his career, but this looks one of his better setups to break through. (2) Discreetly Blue has been hitting the line strongly and now looks well suited rising to 1600m. (9) Bouzy’s Babe is going as well as she ever has, having run third at her last three starts. The wide barrier is not ideal, but there appears to be little speed in the race so she can push forward and cross early. (13) Goodwin Guru was a sharp improver last start when rising in distance and is capable of going on with it again on a track that may suit her better.
Selections:
(4) Let It Ride
(2) Discreetly Blue
(9) Bouzy’s Babe
(13) Goodwin Guru
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(3) Common Interest is third up and drops sharply in grade from the races he has contested this preparation. He has gone back in both runs this prep and had little luck in the straight, so he looks suited rising in distance and getting to a bigger track. (2) Aramoso took a long time to break through for his maiden win, but finally did so at Oakbank last start. He appears best suited at 1400m and may now go on with it. (12) Affaire Vue may be able to take up the lead and control things out in front. He is fitter second up, which should help him improve. (4) It’s Only Magic comes into this race fitter 2nd up today, expecting a positive ride from the in form Campbell Rawiller who will give him every chance and he should show some improvement today
Selections:
(3) Common Interest
(2) Aramoso
(12) Affaire Vue
(4) It’s Only Magic
Suggested Bet: (3) Common Interest – Win
Race 6
(3) Takeover Lad showed improvement last start when dropping in grade and finishing a close second. He remains at this level, which suits, and maps for a good run on speed from barrier two. He should get the right run and could prove hard to catch if allowed to control the tempo. (2) Over The Edge probably got too far back as a short-priced favourite at Penola and could not quite reel in the winner. He will likely settle back again from the wide barrier but should be better suited at this bigger track when charging late. (13) Prince Kero may be best served pushing forward and taking control of the race, and with the right breaks she gets her chance. (1) Grinzinger Ace can improve on recent finishing positions dropping back in grade from the races he has contested this preparation.
Selections:
(3) Takeover Lad
(2) Over The Edge
(13) Prince Kero
(1) Grinzinger Ace
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
She does not win often, but (12) Reine Of Nine has an impressive record over this track and distance combination of 7:2-4-1, and in a race that looks likely to be run at a fast tempo she is set up to charge late again. (8) Act Of Treachery resumes after winning first up last prep before contesting a pair of stronger races to end that campaign, and she resumes in a grade that should suit. (16) Sundogg has placed at his last two starts and in a race with a messy map he gets a decent setup from barrier one. (1) Brave Action resumes down in grade from the races he contested last prep, should find this easier and sets up for an on speed run in this sprint
Selections:
(12) Reine Of Nine
(8) Act Of Treachery
(16) Sundogg
(1) Brave Action
Suggested Bet: (12) Reine Of Nine – Win
Race 8
Messy race to sort out. (5) Head Of The Herd ran well in a stronger race last start and drops in grade. He maps well from the inside barrier, should get an ideal run and every chance. You can never discount veteran (2) France’s Boy in a race of this level, and he maps as the likely leader, which could make him tough to run down. (3) Robert The Puss has placed in two of his three runs this preparation and looks ready for the 1600m trip at this stage of the campaign. (12) The Ice Cutter generally gets back and hits the line strongly. He should be better suited here at Murray Bridge than he was last start and, with the light weight after the apprentice claim, should get every chance to be charging late.
Selections:
(5) Head Of The Herd
(2) France’s Boy
(3) Robert The Puss
(12) The Ice Cutter
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(1) King Of Wessex drops in grade from his past few starts, sets up well from barrier four and with a positive jockey booked he should race in a strong position and get every chance. (5) Our Sassy Lady was a tough winner last start and now rises in both grade and distance, so she may need to improve again, but she does look likely to get the run of the race out in front from barrier three. (6) Retourne is a tough stayer dropping in grade, and coming back to 2000m should not pose any concerns as he will be strong late. (4) Fiora Blue should take confidence from her strong last-start win. She needs to handle the rise in distance, but she was tough late there and is fitter now, so the rise in trip may not be an issue.
Selections:
(1) King Of Wessex
(5) Our Sassy Lady
(6) Retourne
(4) Fiora Blue
Suggested Bet: No bet
