Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 2 Backing both (13) Simurgh and (3) Cadogan
Next best: Race 3 Backing both (8) Rising Star and (11) Himalayan
Roughie: Race 10 (3) Per Sempre
Turf Talk
- Rail is out 12m.
- Generally a rail position that can bring run-on horses, wider on the track, into play.
- Plenty of rain around on Thursday and with temperatures cool, it won’t take much to see the track into the soft range.
- Caulfield hasn’t raced well of late, so a big watch on the track.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(12) Natural Fling was backed as soon as markets went up and it’s easy to see why. She has bolted in both her jump-outs leading into this, doing so under her own steam. She moves beautifully and clearly possesses good talent. The McEvoys know how to find a nice filly in these colours, too. Looking to poke holes in her form: she hasn’t run any time in her jump-outs and a testing 1100m may stretch her on debut.
Loved the jump-outs of (1) Jarbardar prior to his debut at Wagga and he didn’t disappoint, belting his rivals with consummate ease. Didn’t beat much, but time was OK and he did it so easily. Has a turn of foot and looks to have substance to him. Think he’s right up to a race like this.
(14) The Destroyer seems a massive price at $67. Lloyd Kennewell does a good job with his 2YOs and this filly hit the line very well out wide in a Caulfield Heath trial recently. 1100m looks to suit on debut.
(6) King Koruna was strong late on debut at Mornington after getting miles back in a leader-dominated 1000m race. 1100m and the rail out at Caulfield suit much better.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(1) Jarbardar
(14) The Destroyer
(12) Natural Fling
(6) King Koruna
Suggested bet: Tough race. Small bets Jarbardar and The Destroyer.
Race 2
Like (13) Simurgh. Trialled nicely at Traralgon before a very good return over a mile at Cranbourne. Was super strong there and gives every indication 2000m will only prove more suitable. Maiden win in Ireland at this trip was strong. Willo should give him every chance from a nice draw.
Wouldn’t surprise to see (3) Cadogan improve at big odds. Drew out and was slow to begin at Flemington, his first Australian start. Had trialled nicely leading into that and with blinkers and Zahra going on, there’s a good deal of intent second up.
(10) Almairac has trialled nicely between runs and looks set to peak third up. Long time since he has won but he has the tools in his kit bag to win a race like this.
(5) Dreams Come True has had a couple of runs back up in Sydney and should be ready to fire now third up. Turned in a host of pretty strong performances down in Victoria last winter and will be well suited if they’re getting away from the fence.
Dropping back to 2000m is no knock for (4) Xtra Rush. Galloper who makes his own luck up near the speed and any sting out of the track won’t worry him. Should be in this a long way.
Selections:
(13) Simurgh
(3) Cadogan
(5) Dreams Come True
(10) Almairac
Suggested bet: Backing Simurgh and Cadogan. Like the race.
Race 3
Was impressed with the Australian debut of (8) Rising Star. Settled midfield at Pakenham before rattling to the line, producing the second-best last 200m split of the meeting. Form out of the race looks fair on paper, but dig a little deeper and think it has held up OK. A mile suits far better and any sting out of the ground is only a plus on her NZ form. 35 days between runs the knock.
(11) Himalayan is right in the game. Ran two seconds quicker than the other 1650m race on the day in breaking her maiden at Werribee last start. No match for Boomeroo, who has since run second in Stakes company in SA, at Sale the start prior, but they belted their rivals and she didn’t have much luck at her first two runs this campaign. Maps for a lovely trail. Big price at $15.
(2) Jett Smash will make his own luck up on speed and is flying this campaign. If there’s a query it’s the end of a mile, especially if they’re getting away from the fence, but he handles all ground and seems pretty bombproof.
(5) Bona Forza is better than what she produced in the SA Oaks, when never a factor. NZ form prior had been strong and she was backed as soon as markets went up. Not enamoured with how she’s been laying in through her recent starts, however.
Not sure where (1) West Of Swindon is at. Showed talent early doors but trial between runs at Goulburn was pretty plain, despite winning. Has been racing in stronger grade, so the drop in class is a bonus, but not sure he’s going that well.
Like the race.
Selections:
(8) Rising Star
(11) Himalayan
(2) Jett Smash
(5) Bona Forza
Suggested bet: Strong two-bet play on Rising Star and Himalayan.
Race 4
Was giving (3) Cherish Me a chance at Bendigo last week but she comes here instead. Ran home some of the best late splits of the meeting first up at 1200m and her trial between runs with the blinkers on was strong. Wears those blinkers here and a strong tempo up front should suit.
(6) Bella Verona trialled brilliantly before her most impressive debut win at Cranbourne. She jumped OK there but was snagged back from a wider draw. Think she can use gate one to settle in behind what looks a reasonable speed. Oozes potential.
(4) Chateau Eze had no luck at Mornington last start. She ran well in a Jim Moloney at this track and trip in the spring and looks ready to peak third up with Zahra going on.
The toppy (1) Exit sat deep in SA last start but was still plain by the same token. That said, she drops in grade here and had no issue with the sting out when winning at Flemington the start prior.
(7) Two To Tango ran into a smart one in Concord Connie at Flemington last start. The task is easier and she belted the rest of her rivals there.
Track pattern could prove vital.
Selections:
(6) Bella Verona
(3) Cherish Me
(7) Two To Tango
(4) Chateau Eze
Suggested bet: Want to see how the track is playing before committing.
Race 5
Not mad on the race.
Think Meech can come across and sit outside the leader on (7) Oceana Dream and if they are getting away from the fence then she can dictate to her rivals’ jockeys. Flattered by the pattern/tempo at her first Australian start, but this is no tougher.
(8) Makdane loves the sting out of the track and can produce a run fresh. Trial was one-paced, but you’d expect that getting to a mile first up. Maps for a soft run.
Wasn’t much between (5) Everain, (9) Nation’s Call and (2) Farhh Flung, who had no luck, in a key form race at Flemington last start. Everain had a fitness edge on his two rivals there and not sure there should be so much between the trio in the market.
Selections:
(7) Oceana Dream
(8) Makdane
(9) Nation’s Call
(2) Farhh Flung
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 6
Track conditions could prove vital.
(2) Philosopher probably doesn’t want it too wet, but on a dry track he’d be a huge hope. And, frankly, he hasn’t really been tested on wet ground, so it’s more an unknown. He was very good in the Discovery at Ballarat. Granted, he had the run through on the right part of the track, but he was closing on Geegees Mistruth on the line and that mare has since won a Group 1. Wide draw no issue from the chute and given he can miss the kick it’s probably a positive, if anything. Nice claim gets him away from Bustling in the weights.
(10) Call To Glory has trialled up very well. He looks set to run a big race first up, up on speed.
(14) Bazaball Rewarded is a very fast mare who is suited at 1000m. Trialled up with Bustling and went well enough given it was her one and only jump-out. Drops down in weight from the imposts she was carrying at the end of last preparation and again, no issue with the wide draw.
(11) Along The River is airborne and will again be in the finish. Probably prefer him on firmer footing, so track condition crucial.
The very talented (1) Bustling resumes here off a long spell. He showed an abundance of talent in WA as a 2YO before coming to the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr stable for an Everest tilt. Unfortunately, he never measured up that spring and has clearly had issues that have kept him away for some 86 weeks. Obviously his best can win and Zahra riding is some lead, but I didn’t really like his trials and can’t go near him at the price.
Selections:
(2) Philosopher
(10) Call To Glory
(14) Bazaball Rewarded
(11) Along The River
Suggested bet: Philosopher each-way interests most.
Race 7
A few very good wet trackers engaged, so track conditions are vital.
(2) Marble Arch was very good first up at Flemington and trials prior suggested she would derive plenty of benefit from whatever she did fresh. Sticky gate to overcome, but will be strong late.
(3) Green Fly is a gun wet tracker and Damien Thornton has ridden him to victory up in Brisbane, so will know the horse. He’s a horse that invariably settles last, or near enough, so track pattern will have a bearing on his chances. 42 days between runs a query. Has run well off a similar break in the past, but had a trial between runs on that occasion.
(7) Cartoon Graveyard never got a crack at them at Flemington last start. Maps for a lovely run on speed and form around Steparty over summer reads well for a race like this.
(10) Capper Thirtynine has no weight on his back rising steeply in class. Maps to get plenty of favours coming off a strong win with three-deep no cover at Flemington last start. That was a career peak last time out, so if he can reproduce that, dropping in weight, he’s right in the game.
(5) Brave One has plenty of upside and will find this easier/more suitable than the Razor Sharp first up. They need to use gate one to avoid getting buried on the rails, but the stable generally improves them significantly second up.
Race doesn’t end there. (4) El Rocko relishes the slop, if it eventuates, and has been scratched from a couple of races at the Bool during the week, while (9) Give Me Spaces hasn’t had much luck his past couple.
The only two that would really surprise are (1) Jimmy The Bear and (6) Coastwatch.
Selections:
(10) Capper Thirtynine
(7) Cartoon Graveyard
(2) Marble Arch
(3) Green Fly
Suggested bet: Maybe something small Capper Thirtynine and Cartoon Graveyard, but not a race to be going overboard.
Race 8
The toppy (1) Land Legend is flying. Many suggest he’s a duffer on wet, but he’s run third in a Caulfield Cup on a Soft 6 and a cracking third over an unsuitable 1400m on heavy last campaign. I don’t think his wet-track form is as bad as many think. Zahra back on. This is his race to get an overdue win.
Gee, I thought (11) Mission Of Love did a good job when not having much luck fresh in the Queen Of The South in Adelaide. Stable seem to have their horses going well now out of Macedon.
(14) Howlin’ Rain got back in a moderately run mile first up at Mornington, which was never going to suit. That said, he was super strong late in what was a perfect pipe-opener for 2000m here. They should be rolling forward from the wide draw as there isn’t huge speed.
(8) Pounding hasn’t won since dinosaurs roamed the earth but he’s completely airborne at the moment. Like the 3kg claim for Pozman, who is a valuable apprentice at a meeting like this, and she’s ridden the horse previously. Right in the game.
Selections:
(1) Land Legend
(11) Mission Of Love
(14) Howlin’ Rain
(8) Pounding
Suggested bet: Backing Land Legend, small plays on Mission Of Love and Howlin’ Rain.
Race 9
An early mark with just the nine races. Tempo looks strong to close out the day.
Race hinges around whether (17) Marsept gets a run. She was terrific behind a smart one in Extragalactic, one of the Goodwood faves, first up at Caulfield before winning as easily as you like at Geelong last time out. Hasn’t seen rain-affected going on race day but for what it’s worth, which isn’t a huge amount given she wasn’t under any pressure at all, she moved well on heavy ground in a Werribee jump-out.
(4) Glasgow Lass may want it further as the campaign unfolds but she has trialled up very nicely for this return. Has had 59 weeks off, but not as concerned about that as she was in work during the spring and made it to trial stage, but clearly wasn’t suitable to race. Drawn well and did win on a Soft 7 on debut.
(3) Per Sempre is a marvel. Was on her first up at a big price and for a fleeting moment thought she might knock off the hot-pot. Form in recent times has been outstanding. Drawn out, but don’t think that will be an issue late in the day and only one bend to navigate. She will be somewhere thereabouts again and will go around over the odds.
(9) Sun Setting comes through the same race as Per Sempre and while she finished behind, was clearly a better run. Got a mile back before running home the day’s best last 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the meeting. Funnily enough, that pair have met a couple of times, and on each occasion Per Sempre has just had her measure. Gate one might not be ideal late in the day.
Like how (14) Legacy Bay has trialled up for this. Only had the one jump-out, so may need the run, but is only ten weeks between outings.
Selections:
(3) Per Sempre
(17) Marsept
(4) Glasgow Lass
(9) Sun Setting
Suggested bet: Marsept clearly the horse to beat, but something small 1×4 Per Sempre for me. She will run an honest race.
