Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 7 (2) Amleto
- Next Best: Race 1 (11) Forbidden Desire
- Value Bet: Race 6 (1) Bazzar
Turf Talk
- The track is rated as a Heavy 8 and with overcast conditions it appears unlikely this rating will change.
- The rail will push out from the previous meeting and will be +9m the entire circuit for the first time since February.
- Not expecting a huge leaders bias but will still prefer to side with runners who are likely to settle forwards of midfield in the run and expecting lanes 5-7 to be the ideal going in the straight given recent meetings in similar conditions.
Key Stats:
- Neil Farley has been riding in consistent form of late and is booked for five rides here. In his last 100 rides he has ridden 15 winners to produce a big PoT of +47.8%.
- Pat Kearney had a big weekend up at Swan Hill continuing his strong recent form. He has produced 18 winners from his last 100 starters and returned a PoT of +48%.
Race 1
(11) Forbidden Desire has run midfield in her last two runs but both of those were in stronger races in town, so expecting her to find improvement dropping down in grade. She will likely be suited rising to 1200m after a fast finish at her latest start. (9) Filigree Shadow makes her debut, has won her most recent trial and looks ready to fire fresh. Respect the stable here at their home base. (8) Atella Miss showed at Moe last start that she is capable of handling a wet track. She is fitter now second-up and looks set for another strong showing. (6) You’Remywonderwall was well supported on debut but suffered an arrhythmia, so that run can be forgiven and a sharp bounce back is expected.
(11) Forbidden Desire
(9) Filigree Shadow
(8) Atella Miss
(6) You’Remywonderwall
Suggested Bet: (11) Forbidden Desire (Win)
Race 6
(1) Bazzar looks likely to get a prominent run in the front half of the field and maps for the run of the race from barrier three. He resumes off some strong trial form and has been consistent early in his career, so expecting a strong fresh performance. (2) Dynamite Dancer resumes for the second preparation of his career and showed last campaign that wet tracks pose no issue. (7) Kings Commission won first-up last preparation, can settle prominently and appeals as a value chance. (9) Stellar Mofeed has been in consistent form without winning. She has run into the placings 4 of her last 5 starts so hard to discount her completely. She is drawn wide so might have to work but can show speed and find a position quickly.
(1) Bazzar
(2) Dynamite Dancer
(7) Kings Commission
(9) Stellar Mofeed
Suggested Bet: (1) Bazzar (Each-Way)
Race 7
(2) Amleto was well supported in a stronger race last start but couldn’t quite reel in a quality winner. He drops in grade here, should appreciate the easier assignment and now reaches peak fitness third-up. (7) Winston looks the likely leader and gets a handy 3kg claim, making him a genuine threat if left alone in front. (8) High Tempo was narrowly beaten last start and can go close again if she handles the expected wet conditions. (12) Albanian I Am improved into the placings at his latest outing and looks suited by another rise in distance.
(2) Amleto
(7) Winston
(8) High Tempo
(12) Albanian I Am
Suggested Bet: (2) Amleto (Win)
