Champions Day brings the Flemington Carnival to a close and professional punter turned bookmaker Shaun Beirne is back with his latest edition of Take Us On.
Beirne has identified a horse he wants to back in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, sees opportunities to play around the favourites in the Champions Stakes and is taking a cautious approach to Tempted in the Sprint.
Here’s how he’s attacking the major races, including his Lay of the Day and two special markets worth considering.
Pay attention, punters, Shaun has been on fire this Carnival.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Pinhole the one to back
Beirne is firmly in the corner of Pinhole, believing the gelding is ready to produce a career-best performance.
“I’m strong on Pinhole here. He has that stored energy from being held up all the way to the line in the Moonee Valley Cup. He’s now fifth-up and looks ready to produce a big personal best.”
While the other Australian runners have claims, Beirne is comfortable betting against them.
The international Defiantly presents a more complicated assessment. His overseas form is difficult to line up, particularly given the performances of horses previously exposed in Australia.
“Defiantly is the X-factor. He was prevented from accepting for the Melbourne Cup after failing the veterinary examination, which is obviously worth noting.
“I also have a big query over the UK form around Kizlyar, (which Defiantly brings) who failed twice in Australia, and I’m questioning the significant ratings spike Defiantly produced in the Prix Kergorlay.”
The play: Back Pinhole and lay the runners around him in the market.
Champions Sprint: More than one way to beat Tempted
Tempted is the horse to beat, but Beirne isn’t convinced she has the race at her mercy.
He’s prepared to let the market settle before deciding whether to oppose her, with several rivals capable of producing winning performances.
“There’s no need to rush into laying Tempted. I’ll stick with the market for now and see what happens on race day. I do think there are others capable of winning.”
Joliestar heads the list of dangers, having produced an outstanding performance in The Everest.
“Joliestar is the obvious danger. She ran the second-best rating of her career in The Everest, and her peak performance came up the Flemington straight in the 2025 Newmarket. She could absolutely explode here.”
Beirne also gives Headwall, Caballus and Mazu genuine consideration.
“There’s still a query over Headwall at 1200 metres, but he’ll be close enough to use his strong closing sectionals. Caballus won this year’s Newmarket, so we know what he can do up the straight.
“Mazu has been holding his ratings consistently and becomes more interesting if the rain arrives.”
It’s a race Beirne wants to assess closer to jump time rather than committing to a firm position too early.
Special market: Tempted to win by 1 length or more at $3.50.
Champions Mile: No interest in opposing Autumn Glow
Autumn Glow dominates the Champions Mile market and Beirne sees little reason to take her on.
Her presence creates an unusual betting proposition, with so little opposition expected that even the World Pool could struggle to generate meaningful interest.
“Autumn Glow absolutely stifles the betting. I doubt there will be much money for her. We might even see a record-low World Pool!”
While Beirne is generally looking for opportunities to oppose horses trading shorter than their true chances, Autumn Glow isn’t one he’s keen to challenge.
The play: No interest in taking on Autumn Glow.
Champions Stakes: Stick with the Cox Plate form
Beirne expects the Champions Stakes to produce a familiar result, with the key Cox Plate runners again looking the horses to beat.
He anticipates a genuine tempo, albeit not quite the searching speed of the Cox Plate, which should still give those settling off the pace their opportunity.
“I see this as a repeat of the Cox Plate and expect much the same result. There should be good pace, not quite as strong as the Cox Plate, but enough to suit the horses running on.”
That brings Birdman, Aeliana and Cosmic Crusader firmly into calculations.
“I want to be with that wave of runners coming home. Birdman, Aeliana and Cosmic Crusader are the three I want on my side.”
The difficulty is that the market has already identified the same runners, leaving limited opportunity to find an edge simply by backing them.
“They’re the favourites, so this is a race where we play bookmaker and look to lay as many of the others as we can.”
The play: Keep Birdman, Aeliana and Cosmic Crusader onside and lay runners outside that group.
Lay of the Day: Hankee Alpha
Hankee Alpha is Beirne’s standout horse to oppose on Champions Day.
The key concern is whether the mare can reproduce the enormous rating she recorded at his first Australian start.
“Hankee Alpha was held up last start which was costly. That came off the back of a massive ratings spike at her first run in Australia.
“Her New Zealand figures are nothing like what she produced here first-up, so I have a real question over whether she can repeat that performance.”
Beirne acknowledges there are circumstances in which Hankee Alpha could prove him wrong, particularly if the weather changes.
“She can repeat that figure, and she’s certainly one to keep an eye on with the weather, but at the current odds I’m happy to risk her”
Lay of the Day: Hankee Alpha
Special market: Hankee Alpha to finish first or second at $2.50. A market Beirne is looking to oppose.
