Point Of Law got the job done on Tuesday. Didn’t have enough on, obviously. Especially since we’re both from Alice.
But it feels like punters have been on the right side of the variance this week. Let’s see if it continues.
Flemington: Track and Weather
Flemington should be in the Good to Soft range, with the rail unconfirmed and 5 to 15mm of rain possible on the day.
The bigger factor might be the wind. A 20 to 35km/h southerly is forecast, which helps horses with cover on the inside down the straight. I don’t think we can assume the outside fence wins the sprints.
On a true rail at Flemington, settling midfield from a middle gate is the sweet spot (1.12). Pushing forward from an inside gate (0.82) or a wide gate (0.84) is a big negative.
Rosehill: Inside Lanes and In-Form Jockeys
But the clearest data for the metros is at Rosehill.
Lane 1 with the rail true is a famous edge, and it’s still going: 1.37 A2E and +23.6% POT. Once you’re out in lanes 12 to 16, it’s 0.58.
And the jockey to follow is Zac Lloyd. He’s going enormous at 1.32 over his last 100 rides, with 26 winners, and he’s 1.17 on 495 Rosehill rides.
Dylan Gibbons (1.57) and Tommy Berry (1.20) are flying over their last 100 too.
Eagle Farm: Munce Stable Flying
And finally, some nicer weather in Brissie. Eagle Farm should be firm.
The Munce stable has been flying all spring: 1.27 over their last 100 runners, with 20 winners. Blackbook them as usual.
Flemington
Race 6 – 1200m | Champions Sprint
Tempted ($1.80) is the best horse in the Champions Sprint. But it’s her first go down the Flemington straight and her first trip out of NSW. Too short for me, as I’ve said nearly every single time she’s won.
I’m with Joliestar ($6 into $4.80). JMac, third up, and she’s already won a Newmarket down this straight.
Some support for Caballus (into $11), which makes sense. But just the one bet for me.
Race 8 – 2000m
Aeliana ($2.90) and Cosmic Crusader ($3.20) are short. Cosmic can’t do much more than his Cox Plate, and barrier 11 is tricky.
Trying to catch Birdman ($6). Beaten under a length in the Cox Plate (-16.3 benchmark!), and barrier 1 means Ben Melham can put him to sleep behind Sir Delius and Aeliana.
Omni Man ($13) has the Geelong Cup, crunching him from $19. And I might have a couple of pennies on Light Infantry Man at $31 in case he rattles them.
Race 9 – 1100m
Stable, jockey, speed. All big positives in the last for Salaria.
And first-time winkers. Let’s go. $14 into $12.
Rosehill
Race 2 – 1300m
There’s a few reasons to back the No.8 here, beyond the name.
Powder Man ($11) has Zac Lloyd piloting, there’s been money plonked and the seven-year-old leads the late speed rating. Love a good track at this distance.
Value bet.
Race 8 – 1800m | Five Diamonds
Welcometotheshow ($8) in the Five Diamonds.
Money on, PF AI supportive.
Froggy Newitt isn’t in great form at the moment, but has a great record for TDA.
Ran home quicker than the winner in the prelude, and was third to Lady Shenandoah in the Toorak before that. Should get the trailing run from barrier 9.
Plymouth ($10) is also overs.
Race 9 – 1100m
Show Business ($6), and the man from the data up top again, Zac Lloyd, jumps on.
Plenty of speed drawn around and he’s been flying in his trials. Ranks No.1 for late speed, map looks comfortable
Eagle Farm
Race 4 – 1815m
Cunnamulla Fella ($3.40) was on a heavy track last time and had to get back. Still ran the quickest benchmarks by nearly two lengths. Better draw and better conditions here.
Hard to beat. Jett Newman beating the market by 20% on his last 100 rides too.
Race 5 – 1300m
Southern Heiress ($2.60) was unsuited by a slow tempo last start. Tomorrow she should sit just behind them and has the turn of foot.
Team Munce is the hottest stable in the region, but you know Gollan and Jones are hard to beat too.
Late speed, equal quickest peak rating and ran a blistering last 600m last start.
Race 7 – 1000m
Incognito ($4.80) brings the best form in the race. Lights up the PF database.
Positive map, quickest turn of foot by far and gets a 95 score from PF AI.
Military Tycoon ($3.20) is the danger, but he’s off 180 days.
I love the Michael Freedman stable too.
Morphettville
Race 3 – 1400m
Backing Kalmana ($4.90). The price is tumbling, the map looks a great edge and he ranks No.1 for early speed.
Third up, unlucky the last two when caught wide, and the step up to 1400m really suits.
Ascot
Race 3 – 1600m
Better sharpen our Perth form with the Carnival in sight.
Will get involved with Masmelo at $5. Was unlucky first up, and you can see the closing 200m sectional below.
Tsang has some work to do from the back, and that’s the concern, but the horse should have toe. Ran well second up last prep.
A Couple More Roughies
- Flemington Race 5: Zuleika ($18)
- Eagle Farm Race 5: Highgrove Rose ($12)
