Best Bet: Race 5 #6 Mrs Maree
Next Best: Race 6 #13 Airworthy
Value Bet: Race 4 #7 Island Dream
Turf Talk:
- Clear weather is forecast in the early parts of the week so expecting the track to hold a Soft 5 rating.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting here and will be +5m from the 1000m to the winning post and +3m for the remainder.
- At the previous meeting here, winners came from a wide spread of lanes in the straight, but it was also a slight advantage for runners who settled on speed, so expecting similar today.
Key Stats
- Kerrin McEvoy has found form in recent weeks. He has ridden 14 winners from his last 100 rides and returned a POT of +19.3%.
- Adam Hyeronimus has been tougher to catch for punters in recent weeks. He has ridden 11 winners from his last 100 rides but returned a negative POT of -27.1%.
- Jim & Greg Lee only have the one runner nominated for this meeting but have been red hot in recent weeks with 19 winners from their previous 100 starters and a large POT of +50.8%.
Race 1
Tough race to split them in here as the top few chances in the race are all coming into this off the back of some impressive last start wins. (1) Pin Up Sheila was one of those who was a winner on debut at Canterbury. She goes on top here given she is the one who maps for run of the race from barrier 3 so should land in a strong position quickly in the run. (3) Sambuca Sky is another who will settle in a positive position and improved to win in her last start, tackles a rise in distance, so may need a soft run to see it out as strong as last time. (2) Scuro Star won easily on debut, can build on that performance now and will be suited if the other two runners overdo it out in front. Of the runners that are on debut, the best of them coming out of the trials looks to be (5) Bonvoy who has taken her time to get to race day, but recent trials look to have her in good order and capable of a strong debut.
Selections:
(1) Pin Up Sheila
(3) Sambuca Sky
(2) Scuro Star
(5) Bonvoy
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Only the one runner in the field now has race day experience so leaning towards the runners on debut. The one who appears best set up is (10) Spain who has looked solid in 2 recent trials and with the booking on Tim Clark they will likely be positive from barrier 2 which should suit. (7) Omolong showed good improvement to win his latest trial at Rosehill, another with a favourable barrier so should figure in the finish. (2) Dubious Express is the only runner in this field that has race day experience and ran 2nd at Newcastle 1st up. He may be advantaged having had that experience. (9) Sanctum may get a better set up than others here jumping from an inside barrier and getting in light at the weights.
Selections:
(10) Spain
(7) Omolong
(2) Dubious Express
(9) Sanctum
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Preferring to side with the runners who have race experience for this. (10) Farfetched resumes for her 2nd campaign and is coming into this with 2 recent trial wins so looks in good order and maps as the likely leader so could prove tough to catch. (12) Radicals was well supported in her debut at Hawkesbury and ran a close 2nd there. Expecting she will take good benefit from that run and will again settle in a positive position. (1) Crossways makes his debut. He has looked impressive at the trials and that reflects with some early market support. His trial form suggests he can win 1st up but at his short price he feels a touch risky from the wide barrier. (15) Zoufame resumes today, he is yet to miss the top 3 in his 2 career runs to date and has looked good when winning 2 recent trials so may get here with a level of improvement that sets him up well.
Selections:
(10) Farfetched
(12) Radicals
(1) Crossways
(15) Zoufame
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
(7) Island Dream comes down in grade for this today having performed well in Saturday grade recently. He ran a close 2nd behind a smart one 2 starts back before a moderate run last start but she may have had some excuses there. She is at peak fitness now and is a winner at the 1600m trip so looks suited in this set up and a strong chance if she performs at her best. (5) Existential Bob ran a close 2nd behind an inform runner when resuming, he is better suited up in distance and fitter today but needs to be good early and use his speed to cross from the wide barrier. (10) Deal N Dash kicks off a new prep slightly down in grade from where he finished last time in work. He may have improvement to give over more ground later into the prep, but he is a 1st up winner so capable of a strong run fresh. (4) Trapalanda is another runner resuming, he showed improvement to win his latest trial and maps positively from an inside barrier so should get every chance with the right run.
Selections:
(7) Island Dream
(5) Existential Bob
(10) Deal N Dash
(4) Trapalanda
Suggested Bet: (7) Island Dream (Each-Way)
Race 5
(6) Mrs Maree is in career best form with 2 wins in her last 4 starts. She has Nash Rawiller booked and is a runner with good early speed, so she maps to be in an ideal position forwards in the run with some key rivals having to navigate tough maps from wide positions. If she is given a chance to get along out in front again with some soft sectionals, she may prove tough to reel in late. (7) Sister Daae ran a close 2nd in a hot race last start. She is at peak fitness now 3rd up and in good form but does get back, so the inside barrier could pose a slight risk if she cant get the right run. (12) Wootton Way has been in consistent form recently but did put in a moderate effort last start, she maps for an economical run from barrier 2 so may settle closer which will prove to be an advantage. (2) Deep Pleasure has finished midfield in her last few and needs to find improvement, but she is in well at the weights and jumps from a low barrier so should likely settle in a strong position.
Selections:
(6) Mrs Maree
(7) Sister Daae
(12) Wootton Way
(2) Deep Pleasure
Suggested Bet: (6) Mrs Maree (Win)
Race 6
(13) Airworthy comes out of a strong race last start where he put in a tough performance despite a wide barrier. He tired late in the run there but gets a much better look today from barrier 4. The leaders will have to work early from the wide barrier which gives him a soft run and expect him to be stronger late. (10) Sociable has run 2nd in his last 2 starts and looks close to a breakthrough win. The rise in distance suits him at this point and a quick tempo should set him up. (7) Dusty Bay is another runner who has run 2nd in his last 2 runs, he maps well from barrier 1 and will race on speed so should be prominent. (9) Champagne Hero resumes, he generally takes a run to find his strongest form in a prep but is kicking off down in grade so could be capable of a strong 1st up run at this level.
Selections:
(13) Airworthy
(10) Sociable
(7) Dusty Bay
(9) Champagne Hero
Suggested Bet: (13) Airworthy (Win)
Race 7
Tough race to map out and finish off the program. (6) Astronomix looks likely to land on speed and race in a forward position. He showed talent in his debut prep and gets in light at the weights here with a claim so could be set up for a strong 1st up showing again. (18) Against The Law waits on a run as an emergency but if he gains a start, he looks suited. Jumping from barrier 1 he can land in a handy position and with a light weight that will likely settle in a handy position, this is a drop in grade from his previous run so gets every chance to find his better form again. (3) Tequila Baby was midfield in a stronger race when resuming, comes into this 2nd up and fitter today and has won 2nd up previously so he should be capable of going close in this grade. (1) Columbia Blue rates highly resuming in this grade, he has a strong 1st up record and comes in here in good order after a recent trial win, but the wide barrier means he needs some luck early.
Selections:
(6) Astronomix
(18) Against The Law
(3) Tequila Baby
(1) Columbia Blue
Suggested Bet: No Bet
