Summary of best bets:
Best Bet: Race 3 No.3 Wild Ruby
Next Best: Race 4 No.5 Dora Aurora
Best Value: Race 8 No.3 Theodor
Track
- Clear weather forecast for race day, but it will be cool with a dew overnight so it will be unlikely to see much of a track upgrade, so working on a Soft 7.
- The rail will be out slightly in one section of the track and be +4m from the 1400m to the 1200m and true the remainder.
- Expect in the conditions it will be tough to make up much ground, so runners who settle in the front half of the field will likely have an advantage.
Stats
- Justin Pickering brings a team of strong chances to this meeting and has had strong success at this track previously with a winning strike rate of 22.2% and a POT return of +51.1%.
- Campbell Rawiller comes into this meeting in positive form, riding 13 winners from his last 100 rides and a POT of +12.3%. His form here at Bordertown has also been very strong with a winning strike rate of 31.6% and a POT of +74.5%.
Race 3
(3) Wild Ruby showed her talent two starts back when winning her maiden at Echuca before running well next start at Seymour. That was in a tougher race so she looks suited back in grade. She is in career best form and should prove hard to beat in this level if she holds that form.
(2) Spike Almighty was a winner two starts ago but potentially didn’t handle the wet track in a disappointing effort last start. He has the scope to improve in better conditions today.
(10) I Love This Song ran into the placings when resuming and could find improvement from that performance with additional fitness now second-up.
(7) Johnny Cigar is 3rd up into his prep today, he is a runner that usually takes a few runs to find his best form so could start to show his best getting towards peak fitness now
Selections
(3) Wild Ruby
(2) Spike Almighty
(10) I Love This Song
(7) Johnny Cigar
Suggested Bet: (3) Wild Ruby (Win)
Race 4
(5) Dora Aurora ran a career peak in her last start at Mount Gambier when producing a tough win from a wide position. She was super tough there and appeared to relish the setup, she gets a similar setup here today over the same distance but with a much better race map, a repeat performance should be hard to beat.
(1) Giddy Up Bankcheck won well in maiden grade two starts back but couldn’t back it up next start, perhaps didn’t appreciate the wet track and will be better suited back in distance.
(6) Toes In First has been moderate in his last two runs, capable of bouncing back at his home track and maps for a soft run.
(8) Fantastic Host may find this easier than his previous two runs this prep so can improve down in grade and fitter third-up but has to navigate a wide barrier.
Selections
(5) Dora Aurora
(1) Giddy Up Bankcheck
(6) Toes In First
(8) Fantastic Host
Suggested Bet: (5) Dora Aurora (Win)
Race 8
(3) Theodor was a dominant winner two starts ago and defeated the runner Harsh who has since come out and performed well in city grade races, franking that form. Theodor couldn’t replicate the performance last start but that was in a stronger race so dropping back down in grade sets him up to bounce back.
(6) Kailee’s Boy was an easy winner in his last start at Strathalbyn in similar conditions, he looks one of the key speed influences of the race so can give them something to catch.
(11) Nevra Queen has been in consistent form over in Victoria including a big six-length win recently. She handles wet conditions and sets up well from barrier 1 so looks ready for the rise in distance.
(9) Whatsanamegeorge makes his debut for a new stable, he has recent form in stronger races and is at peak fitness and proven over this distance, can figure in the race if he handles the track conditions.
Selections
(3) Theodor
(6) Kailee’s Boy
(11) Nevra Queen
(9) Whatsanamegeorge
Suggested Bet: (3) Theodor (Win)
